The season is almost here...plus I've got something new to share!
We're just a couple days away from college basketball, and for the new season I've got a new project to share with readers: the Hoops Insight Stats Engine.
It’s really here. College basketball is back on Tuesday.
I’ve written a few UK pieces this offseason, and I wanted to recap them quickly for readers before sharing some news about a new project I worked on this offseason.
1) Brooks + Shooting = Winning for UK
While last season was a slog for UK, lineups with Keion Brooks at power forward with shooting around him were excellent. These lineups shot well inside and outside the arc, and Brooks himself looked like an absolute star. That’s a good sign for this season since the roster is built to feature these types of lineups heavily.
2) Can Wheeler Be the Guard UK Needs?
I combed through the data on UK’s transfer point guard and found a few things that seem to be true:
He’s excellent at getting to the rim and finishing, especially for a smaller guard
He struggles to shoot everywhere else, but probably isn’t as bad as last year showed
He may be the best PG that UK has had in the last decade at setting up three point shooters
Wheeler has looked good in 2 exhibitions, and looks to be a very good fit with the rest of the roster.
3) What Can UK Expect From Their Returnees?
Kentucky has as many returning players as they’ve ever had under John Calipari. Based on the limited evidence, my opinion is that Keion Brooks should blossom, Davion Mintz will be solid but not game-changing, and the other three may find themselves at the back of the rotation. I may be very wrong on that last part, but a lot of development is needed based on what we saw last season.
4) Over or under on key stats for the Cats?
I take a look at what I think will be some key statistical indicators, and project how UK might do next year. You can click the link to read in full, but I expect:
A near-record season for a Calipari team from three
An outside touch for Keion Brooks
Some relative struggles scoring at the rim
The usual strong defense
Balanced scoring
Introducing the Hoops Insight Stats Engine!
I’ve been doing data-driven basketball analysis for a few years now, but it’s always been me crunching numbers on my own computer. I’ve wanted to develop better ways to share some of what I actually do with people who have similar interests. This offseason I turned that into a reality by learning some coding to develop a webpage where anyone can dig into the same data I’m looking at. The result is the Hoops Insight Stats Engine, available here.
The idea is pretty simple: you pick a team, and can choose all sorts of filters around which games to include, players to be in/out, score, time of game, and so on. The data is organized into stats for the team, lineups, players, as well as some shooting stats. It’s completely interactive, and I’m planning to keep adding some fun miscellaneous stats of interest. I’ll be keeping this updated through the season with the latest UofL games, so bookmark it and check it anytime you want to comb through data on UofL men’s basketball. I’ll also be adding some historical data from the past few seasons as well.
Here’s a video to explain a bit more about how to use the stats engine:
Let me know what you think! I hope some like-minded readers get a kick out of it.
Wow, this is so cool! I've spent the past couple of seasons getting more into statistical analysis. I like that it gives me something to do other than wallow in despair when my team is playing poorly. I've started following the sites you've mentioned in your previous articles to help up my game. Your stats engine seems like an awesome tool. I'm definitely going to be involved in discussions about it going forward.
I think one point where I'm going to depart from agreement with your stats-based projection is on Jacob Toppin. (I mentioned this before in the comments about the returners.). I think his athleticism and size coupled with the opinion that the data from last year was tainted by significantly unusual circumstances make the possibility of an atypical leap in production seem at the very least possible. 6'9" with a 40" vertical leap should result in a decent rate of rebounds, tip ins, and make you a formidable defender around the basket unless you have some other noticable impediment. He did well last night, for example, guarding a likely top 2 draft pick and top 10 team.
Anyway, I'm excited about UK basketball and the new stats engine and the possibility of upping my knowledge and ability to apply the latter to better understand the former. I want to ask a question before signing off. How does your conclusion that Keion at the 4 + 2 shooters=success change if he's playing the 3? There might not be enough data to draw much of a conclusion yet, but I think the game last night seemed like a situation where he profiled better as a 3 than a 4 based on the matchup.