Over or Under on key stats for the Cats?

Here are a few key stats to watch for UK next season...will they go over or under?

It looks like the roster for Kentucky men’s basketball is finally set for next season. They didn’t land Kofi Cockburn, and it doesn’t look like they’ll land Jalen Duren. That means we can stop imagining what the roster might look like, and start imagining what the roster will do.

In broad strokes, we can have some idea of what to expect. UK may finally be dragged kicking and screaming into making three pointers a more significant part of the offense and should have a pretty deep rotation in the backcourt and on the wing. The roster is a bit thinner up front, but may get away from the typical “two big” looks that UK has loved and use the power forward position to stretch the floor a bit.

With that in mind, I’ve identified 6 stats or rankings that I think will be key to watch for UK next season. Some are team-wide, some are individual, but performance in them should go a long way to determining the ceiling for this Kentucky team. For each one, I’ll make the case for the over and under as well as making my prediction. Let’s dive in!

#1 Team 3 point field goal percentage: 37.0%

The case for the under: Kentucky has only topped this figure twice under Calipari, in 2010-11 and 2011-12 when Doron Lamb was leading the way from outside. They haven’t broken 36% since Jamal Murray and Tyler Ulis were on the roster, and the 33.6% they shot last season was 172nd in the nation. Davion Mintz hit almost 37% last year but never topped 35% at Creighton, and Dontaie Allen hit 40% but may not get enough playing time to help. Sahvir Wheeler hit under 23% for Georgia last season.

The case for the over: Last season, UK’s guards and wings combined to hit 33.9% of their three point attempts, while the returnees and transfers combined to hit 36.7% of theirs. That improvement should be enough to drag the Wildcats up over 36%. Kellan Grady (36%) and CJ Fredrick (47%) have been excellent shooters in their career. TyTy Washington hit 41% of his threes in high school last season.

My prediction: Under, but just barely. The best shooters by % (Allen and Fredrick) are also lower volume shooters. I think 36% is pretty reasonable given the mix of shooters UK has, and it would take some hot streaks to beat 37% as a team.

#2 Three point frequency: 37.5% of total field goal attempts

The case for the under: Kentucky has never taken more than 33% of their shots from deep in a season under Calipari. Calipari offenses take a ton of two point jumpers, and it will be very tough to break that habit in one year. Last season, UK’s guards/wings took 41% of their shots from 3, and the newcomers/returnees combined for 48%…that increase would only get UK to just over 36%. Getting to 37.5% would put UK in the middle of D-1 in this stat, and UK has never ranked above 180th nationally in 3 point frequency under Calipari.

The case for the over: UK has thrown out the idea of playing more four-out and five-out sets this year, as opposed to sets with two big men. This should lead to more drive-and-kick opportunities. Calipari’s Memphis teams ranked in the top 150 in 3pt frequency from 2003-2008, including taking 41% of their shots from three in 2004 (17th in the country!).

My prediction: Under, but again just barely. I think Kentucky will try to make an offensive shift this season, and has enough competent shooters to bomb from the outside, but players like Oscar Tshiebwe, Lance Ware, and Jacob Toppin will probably drag the average down given their hesitancy to step outside.

#3 Keion Brooks made three pointers: 25

The case for the under: Brooks made 6 in 16 games last season and 5 in 31 the year before. His 6 last season came in about 380 minutes; if he can play 28mpg across 36 games, that would pro-rate to just 16 made threes. It may be tough for him to get much more than 28mpg given the depth on next season’s roster. During the 2019-20 season, only 10 SEC forwards made 25 or more threes and two of them played for three-mad Auburn.

The case for the over: Brooks’ 6 makes came in 28 attempts last season, almost 2 per game. If he keeps up that frequency of shooting, he will get about 75 attempts and would only need to hit 33% of his threes to get to 25 makes. Brooks also took a number of long twos last season, and UK forwards tend to shift long twos into threes during their career. Brooks also hit 79% of his free throws, indicating some shooting touch beyond his 21% 3pt% last season.

My prediction: Over. I think Brooks is easily UK’s best option at power forward and may end up getting 30+ minutes per game. I wrote about what I expect from Brooks, and if he doesn’t get to 25 made threes then he either 1) missed a bunch of games, 2) played fewer minutes than I expect, 3) shot threes less frequently than I expect, or 4) failed to improve his shooting percentage. The only way that these don’t equal bad things for UK is if newcomers Bryce Hopkins or Damion Collins are so good that they take some of Brooks’ time at power forward. If Brooks has the expected role and shows life from deep, he should get to 25 makes.

#4 UK team FG% at the rim: 65%

The case for the under: Kentucky hit 59.4% last year, 143rd in the nation. The only player on next year’s roster who hit >65% at the rim in college last season was Dontaie Allen, who went a whopping 3 for 4 (75%). Oscar Tshiebwe has hit 63% at the rim in his career, far below recent UK bigs like Nick Richards and EJ Montgomery who would hit 75-80% at the rim.

The case for the over: Last season was the first time UK was outside the top 30 in FG% at the rim under Calipari, and 65% would have been 35th last year. Keion Brooks was at 73% as a freshman before dropping to 63% last year. Last seaons was the first year since 2013 that UK didn’t have a guard make 65%+ at the rim, and Kellan Grady hit that level as a freshman and sophomore as well as 62% as a senior. Better spacing should lead to less congested lanes and more room for finishers.

My prediction: Under. Maybe Damion Collins develops into a great finisher inside, but Oscar Tshiebwe has been pretty underwhelming in that role in college so far. To be elite at the rim you need some athletic long big men who can finish, and that isn’t Oscar unfortunately. They’ll be better than last year but they don’t have the bigs to be elite around the rim this year.

#5 KenPom defensive efficiency ranking: 40th

The case for the under (worse than 40th): Last year UK was 35th, and none of the incoming transfers graded well defensively. Per Basketball Reference, the defensive box plus-minus for CJ Fredrick was the best of any of UK’s transfers at 0.9 points per 100 possessions. BPM attempts to measure defensive impact per 100 possessions for a player, and Grady, Tshiebwe, and Wheeler were all graded poorly by this stat. That is an indicator that UK is bringing in some fairly poor defenders, and it will be tough to show improvement with poor defenders and limited shot blocking.

The case for the over (better than 40th): Kentucky has only been worse than 40th twice, in 2020 and 2013, and in both seasons UK had little depth to use to motivate players to play better defense. With enough depth, Calipari can use playing time as a reward for defensive effort. Despite the transfers’ poor defensive metrics last season, every player on UK has had a defensive BPM above 1.0 for the last 4 seasons with the exceptions of Kahlil Whitney and Quade Green in their transfer years. It seems like Calipari knows how to coach up defense.

My prediction: Over (better than 40th). Calipari knows good defense. The shot blocking on this team is not a strength, but I think they’ll figure out a way to make it all work.

#6 Kentucky’s leading scorer: 15 points per game

The case for the under: Is anyone a lock for 30 minutes per game? The only Wildcats under Calipari to score 15ppg in under 30mpg were PJ Washington in 2019, De’Aaron Fox in 2017, and Boogie Cousines in 2010, and they all took a huge portion of UK shots when on the court. With a deeper roster and more balanced offense, 15ppg seems like a stretch.

The case for the over: Kellan Grady averaged 20ppg per 40 minutes at Davidson each of the last 2 years, which would average out to 15ppg in 30mpg. Keion Brooks averaged 17.5ppg per 40 minutes last season, and with more normal 3 point shooting and 30mpg could end up around 15ppg. Maybe Oscar Tsheibwe plays like 35mpg at center and dominates with lots of space thanks to the cadre of shooters alongside him?

My prediction: Under. This really comes down to minutes and shot distribution. I don’t know that anyone will become the singular threat needed to get this volume of scoring.

What do you think? Are there other key stats that you think will be a bellweather, or do you think I’m way off on any of the above? Leave a note in the comments or shout at me on Twitter!