Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Kev's avatar

In my excitement about the upcoming start to the season, I re-read this article and wow, is it good. I've been battling it out with people who think Mintz is going to be starting and/or playing serious minutes this year and I just don't. I agree with your conclusions about his numbers not warranting that. Mintz MIGHT be the 3rd best PG option on the team. I'm not sure he's even the third best at the 2 and considering the possibility that Donte Allen was held back last year by a long convalescent period with his knee and collar bone and the trend of players to make a bigger leap in production between years 1 and 2 than 5 and 6 (like Mintz), it wouldn't be surprising to see him surpass Mintz and if Frederick gets healthy and can shoot like he did in the Big 10, he seems like a better option as well. I think outside of the first few games and those won easily, Mintz should see about 10 or 12 minutes. Another thing worth considering is that minutes that go to him are minutes that are valuable in the development of other players who, unlike Mintz, likely haven't hit their ceiling yet in CBB and who might return next season, paying more dividends from the investment this season. Last point, if Mintz ever makes it to the NBA, it's going to be in a role coming off the bench. Playing that role now, in his last year, won't hurt his stock and also won't force him to demonstrate the things he's bad at like last season did. I'm glad he's getting the chance to make some decent NIL money and think it should help him feel better about having a reduced role as well. I like Davion and think he's a fine player and the experience he brings is valuable to the team, but his past and projected performance in comparison to the other players on the team doesn't warrant awarding him much playing time. Where do you think he ranks as an option at the SG position?

Expand full comment
Kev's avatar

Great analysis, especially how you explain the different metrics and their significance. I feel like I learn some things in every article I've read. It's entirely possible that being a fan of Kentucky basketball biases my opinion on this, but I feel like Toppin could be poised for a sizable leap in production. I think basing projections for this year on last year's stats alone seems flawed in that there's not really any way formula to apply that accounts for the effects of the pandemic restrictions. Last year's team was awful. Virtually no one on the team played well, which I think dragged everyone's performances down. His low % on shots at the rim would bother me more had there been other guys open and playing well, but in almost every game there would be desperate attempts by players to score before the shot clock ran out and the primary ball handling was terrible. I remember Toppin gesturing to the basket, calling for an alley oop that never came in almost any game. I think we have guys on this year's team who can get him the ball much more efficiently and set him up to score. Plus, a summer of growing an inch to 6'10", packing on muscle, working on his 3 point shooting, and having the chance to gel with his new teammates has me feeling as if there's at least a very good chance we see a markedly improved player. I might be totally wrong, but the above reasons are what make me think he seems primed for a leap in production. Again, excellent analysis!

Expand full comment
2 more comments...

No posts