What can UK expect from their returnees?

UK has 5 rotation players returning from last season. Which ones will be able to maintain a rotation spot this season?

While most of the offseason focus has been on the newcomers to Kentucky’s program, there are 5 players returning who played at least 10 minutes per game last season: Davion Mintz, Keion Brooks, Jacob Toppin, Dontaie Allen, and Lance Ware. That’s tied for the most such returnees for a Calipari team at UK, along with the 2014-15 team who had the Harrison twins, Alex Poythress, Willie Cauley-Stein, and Dakari Johnson back from the year before. Those previous Cats were returnees from a team that, while uneven, finished 2nd in the SEC regular season, runners-up in the SEC Tournament, and made a surprising run to the national title game before falling short. These latest holdovers are veterans of a 9-16 season that may be the most disappointing season Kentucky basketball has ever had.

With a number of key transfers and 3 high profile freshmen imported into the program, there’s going to be less room for mistakes among the Wildcat returnees next season. Mintz and Brooks will be looking to hold onto their plum rotation spots, while Toppin, Allen, and Ware will be looking to show further growth to hold onto their bench spots. What kind of growth can UK fans expect from each returnee next season? What type of role should be expected for each? I take an indepth look into each case in this latest edition of Hoops Insight.

Mintz may be out of room for growth

Davion Mintz is the one UK returnee who probably has the least room for growth. He’ll be on his 5th season playing high major NCAA basketball, and he hasn’t really added a ton during his career. Per his Sports Reference page, he’s been a 35-38% 3 point shooter through his whole career who’s averaged 2-3 assists per game. His free throw attempts and assists per 100 possessions have declined during his career as his 3 point attempts per 100 possessions have risen. He’s never been a good 2 point shooter, so shifting more of his shots to 3 pointers has helped him maintain above average efficiency. He has reduced his turnovers as he’s become more of a spot up shooter, and he has never brought a lot on the defensive side of the ball with steal rates that are merely average for a guard.

While Mintz became UK’s best point guard option last season, he’s probably 3rd in the pecking order next season at that position behind Sahvir Wheeler and TyTy Washington. Mintz can certainly pitch in as a playmaker, but UK won’t be short in that area next season with Kellan Grady and CJ Fredrick also providing secondary playmaking. Mintz is a capable outside shooter, but his 38% last season was a career high and lags well behind what Fredrick has put up. Grady and Mintz are similar shooters, but Grady offers much more offensive creation inside the arc as a 55% career 2 point shooter. I’d expect Mintz to get 18-20 minutes per game last season as a combo guard, with something like 8 ppg and 2 apg on 45% shooting from 2 and 37% shooting from 3. His leadership as a veteran of the program will probably earn him a bigger role early on, but he doesn’t seem to bring any specific basketball skills that his new teammates lack.

Brooks could blossom at the 4

Before last season, I projected a sophomore leap from Keion Brooks. While he had put up 4.5ppg and 3.2rpg in 15mpg as a freshman, I wrote that I expected something along the lines of 11ppg and 6rpg in 25-30mpg. as a sophomore, Brooks actually put up 10.3ppg and 6.8rpg in 24mpg. The biggest area where I was wrong was 3 point shooting, where I expected something like 34% from 3 on ~50 attempts (roughly 1.5 3PA per game). In reality, Brooks hit just 6-28 threes in 16 games. The volume was in line with what I expected but the accuracy was not. However, that volume was about triple the 3PA per game from his freshman year, indicating that he did at least work to extend his range. In the article before last season, I referenced that UK’s frontcourt sophomore who had top-50 level recruiting rankings tended to expand their shooting range under Calipari as sophomore, but this didn’t happen for Brooks. Given his injuries and the weirdness of COVID, I’m inclined to stay somewhat optimistic this season however.

Overall, Brooks did show some promising growth. Per his Sports Reference page, Brooks increased his steals and blocks per 100 possessions as well as his rebound rates. His assist rate jumped from a microscopic 2% as a freshman to almost 16% as a sophomore, a very high rate for a forward. Brooks also maintained solid 2pt shooting while increasing his attempts per 100 poss from 10 to 15. He even improved his FT shooting from 63% to 79% on almost double the FTA per 100 poss. The only blemish on his season was the wayward outside shooting.

I am optimistic that Brooks can be a legitimate threat from deep this season. Maybe I’m being hoodwinked again by projecting, but a player who hits 79% of his free throws and takes 1.5 3PA per game doesn’t seem likely be a 21% 3 point shooter. Over the past 2 seasons, 6 other SEC forwards have hit at least 75% from the FT line, taken at least 1.5 3PA per game, and played at least 24 minutes per game. 5 of them hit 30% or better from three, and 2 hit 37% or better. One area where Brooks can improve is converting some of his long twos into threes. Most forwards who develop three point range take very few long two point jumpers. For example, in the 2019-20 season Keyontae Johnson (one of the 6 Brooks comps) took 79 threes and hit 38%. He took 9 long twos (between 17’ and the 3 point line). Last season Brooks tooks 28 threes and hit 6, but he also took 12 long twos and hit 5 (42%). As a freshman, Brooks actually took more long twos (18) than threes (16). Brooks actually improved his percentage on long twos to a solid 42% last year, which is more evidence that he can develop three point range, but to become a more effective weapon he should get rid of those long twos and take a few steps back.

Between his improved free throw shooting, increased volume of three point attempts, and solid shooting on long twos, I think there’s reason to believe Brooks can become reliable from three. Brooks may not become a knockdown shooter from deep, but 31-33% on 2-3 attempts per game is very reasonable. I’d expect something along the lines of 26-28mpg, with 13ppg and 7 rpg on 51% from 2 and 32% from 3. If his defensive stats (block and steal rate) continue to trend upward, then Keion Brooks can fill an important role as a versatile big on this Kentucky team.

Limited role for the other returnees

For Jacob Toppin, Lance Ware, and Dontaie Allen, opportunities may be very limited this season. For starters, they managed between 12 and 17 minutes per game on a team that went 9-16. It’s tough to see them being a major part of a turnaround when they struggled to push the top 7 last season.

More concretely, Kentucky is bringing in at least 7 newcomers while returning 2 key rotation players. Of the newcomers, at least 5 are clearly going to play ahead of Toppin, Ware, and Allen. It’s certainly possible that Daimion Collins and Bryce Hopkins have an up and down transition into college basketball, but those are the only two players who aren’t clearly ahead of this trio in the rotation. That’s excluding any other late additions to the roster, who will almost certainly be major impact players.

Without a surefire path to major rotation minutes, each of these players is going to need to find at least one skill that can help them stand out. The most likely candidate is Dontaie Allen and his 3 point shooting. Allen hit 40% last season and averaged a 3PA every 4 minutes played. 78% of his shots came from deep, so he certainly focused on his strengths. However, Allen failed to make a significant contribution in any other way. He has a clear strength, but when UK has several other shooters who all bring some semblance of playmaking or off-the-dribble scoring it’s tough to make the case that he should play ahead of the alternatives.

With Jacob Toppin and Lance Ware it’s more difficult to identify any single area where they stand out. Both would require significant growth from last season in order to justify even 10-12 mpg consistently with this improved roster, and that seems wildly speculative. Let’s start with Toppin. He seems to be a man without a clear position. Toppin had a worse FG% at the rim than any other frontcourt Wildcat last season who played more than his 17mpg. He hit 31% from 3, which was 4th on the team, but he shot fewer threes than any Wildcat but Lance Ware, Isaiah Jackson, and Cam’ron Fletcher. He collected a lower percentage of available rebounds than any frontcourt Wildcat (actually tied with Olivier Sarr), and blocked fewer shots even than Dontaie Allen. He profiled like a wing player, but refused to shoot from deep. Per Synergy, he was most effective on scoring off of offensive rebounds; that’s the only play type where he scored above the national average. On a team with 6 guards who can all shoot or playmake at a high level, plus a returning Keion Brooks Jr and a freshman forward ranked #33 in the consensus ranking (Bryce Hopkins), I’m not sure there’s a role for a small forward who doesn’t shoot from outside. Toppin also doesn’t bring a lot defensively; per Synergy, he graded in the 5th percentile nationally guarding the pick and roll.

Ware is a similar story. He almost never shot last year, taking 9% of Kentucky’s shots when he was in the game. It’s no secret that he struggled to finish in the paint, as he hit a lower FG% there than anyone but Devin Askew and BJ Boston. Ware was an OK rebounder, but his turnover and foul rates were sky high and opponents hit 75% of their shots when posting him up. He also lacks any of the theoretical positional flexibility of a Jacob Toppin, as he’s almost certainly just a low post center. Maybe if UK makes no more additions and Daimion Collins is physically not ready to play then Ware could see 10-12mpg, but that seems like more an indictment of UK’s frontcourt depth than a sign of Ware’s potential.

For either of Ware or Toppin, the best hope for them is that they can follow in the steps of a teammate of theirs. Keion Brooks was a bit of a mess in 15mpg as a freshman, with poor rebounding and assist numbers and looking lost from three. He made strides in several areas last seasonand is poised for a major role in his junior year. However, Brooks had some advantages over either Toppin or Ware. Brooks hit 71% of his shots at the rim as a freshman, with a very low volume of assisted attempts, so he could clearly create some of his own offense. Brooks also flashed more potential as a defender, with a higher block rate than Toppin and steal rate than Ware despite being shorter than either. Brooks also got more playing time on a team that went 9-16, while Ware and Toppin are trying to carve out their role on a team that has aspirations of a Final Four. Lastly, Brooks had more of a proven track record as standing out among his peers as he was the #24 RSCI recruit in 2019. Ware was #39 in 2020, and Toppin was unranked in the 2019 class. Recruiting ranking isn’t everything, but it’s a breadcrumb that indicates that the player had demonstrated some skills before.

During last season, I saw some occasional sentiments on Twitter that UK should give Jacob Toppin a chance because his brother blossomed into an All American and lottery pick. That’s really not a fair comparison at all. Obi Toppin as a freshman played 27mpg and scored 14.4ppg on a Dayton team that went 21-12. He hit 68% of his two pointers despite carrying a huge share of the offense (26% usage rate). In his sophomore year, Obi Toppin was essentially the same player as his freshman year, just in more minutes. Check out his Sports Reference page if you don’t believe me.

In summary, the two UK returnees who will play a major role this year are the same ones who did that a year ago. The 3 returnees who were at the back of the rotation will likely find themselves even further back, with Dontaie Allen having a bit more hope for playing time given his potential as an excellent shooter. Jacob Toppin and Lance Ware probably need time and opportunity to develop, but this Kentucky team next season is just not a likely place for that to happen. Hopefully these guys can push the other players in practice, and be ready if their time comes.

For Mintz and Brooks, they’ll be counted on to be leaders for all the new faces in the program. They’ll also need to shore up some of their own weaknesses and accentuate their strengths. Mintz did that quite a bit last year, focusing on his three point shooting first and foremost. Brooks needs to take the next step and start turning those long two makes into three point makes, while maintaing the rebounding, defense, and interior scoring that allows UK to play him at the 4. If that happens, UK will have nothing to worry about from these two returnees.