Brooks + Shooting = Winning for UK
UK showed some promise last season in rare occasions when they puts Keion Brooks at the 4 with some shooting. If that becomes the norm this season, expect good things.
There weren’t a whole lot of bright spots last season for Kentucky, but there was a formula that tended to work during the limited time the Wildcats used it. That formula combined Keion Brooks at power forward with the two shooting threats on the roster, Davion Mintz and Dontaie Allen, on the perimeter. I’ll get into the specifics of just how good UK was with these lineups and why, but trust me when I say that it seems pretty sustainable. Fortunately, UK’s roster next season seems set up to play exactly these types of lineups even more often. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I explain how UK’s hidden weapon last season can become their main weapon next season and lead UK back to greatness.
A combination that played at an elite level
When UK played Brooks at power forward with Mintz and Allen on the perimeter last season, they outscored opponents by +19 points over 86 possessions. Accounting for opponent quality, UK posted an adjusted margin of +38 points per 100 possessions. For comparison, Gonzaga led the country last season at +36.5, and for the season UK posted an adjusted margin of +16.
It required all of these pieces together for UK to get to this level. When Mintz and Allen played together but Brooks was not in the game, UK had an adjusted margin of +22; with Mintz and Brooks but not Allen, it was +15; with Brooks and Allen in but not Mintz it was -11.
The main benefit was on offense, where UK hit 41% of their three pointers with this group. Mintz and Allen led the team in three point shooting, and Brooks’ passing ability seemed to get them the ball more often. Brooks assisted on almost 16% of his teammates baskets, the third highest rate on UK last season behind only Mintz and Devin Askew. Mintz and Brooks had much lower turnover rates than Askew, and putting more ballhandling responsibility on them helped keep UK’s team turnover rate down in these stretches. Overall, UK had an adjusted offensive efficiency of 118 pts/100 possessions with these lineups; that would have ranked in the top 10 offenses in college basketball last season.
UK also was able to score well inside the arc despite Brooks being undersized compared to their other big men. Despite playing their best perimeter shooters and only playing 1 traditional big man, these Brooks + Shooting lineups actually took threes a little less often than other UK lineups, but converted their two pointers at a 47% clip compared to 45% for the full season. This was due to hitting 68% of their shots in the paint compared to 61% for the full season. By spacing the floor with shooting threats, UK opened up space to score more effectively in the paint.
Sometimes lineups perform well due to random statistical flukes, like poor opponent 3 point shooting or ridiculously low foul rates. The Brooks + Shooting lineups didn’t see this type of benefit, however. These groups rebounded a bit worse than UK did overall for the season, opponents shot a bit better than they did for the season, and UK drew fewer free throws and gave up more than they typically. However, the incredible benefits of shooting better both inside and outside the arc due to better spacing more than made up for any deficiencies elsewhere.
These lineups also played well with a variety of pieces around them. 5 different Brooks + Shooting lineups played at least 10 possessions last season, and only 1 of them was outscored overall. That was the lineup with Askew and Sarr, and it was outscored because their opponents hit 71% of their three pointers. Whether it was Askew, Boston, Sarr, Jackson, or Ware in the lineup with them, Brooks + Shooting usually meant UK was about to outscore someone.
Can Brooks be a star on this team?
The biggest beneficiary of the improved spacing was Brooks himself. When playing the power forward position, Brooks was able to use his quickness in combination with the improved spacing to become an elite player. The results were pretty staggering, albeit in a small sample.
When Brooks played power forward alongside shooters, he:
Took 24% of UK’s shots, the most on the team
Had an effective FG% of 72% (63% on 2’s, and 100% on 3’s…2 for 2, but 100%!)
Hit 88% of his shots in the paint, on par with what Nick Richards did as a junior to lead the country
Hit 38% of his midrange shots, a respectable number
Grabbed 22% of opponent’s misses and 11% of UK’s, nearly what Isaiah Jackson put up for the season
Overall, Brooks averaged a stunning 22 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assists per 36 minutes in these lineups. Those are All-American type numbers! The only negative was that he struggled with fouls sometimes at the 4, committing 6.7 fouls per 36 minutes.
I doubt Keion Brooks can put up 22 points and 10 rebounds for the full season next year, because almost nobody in college puts up those kind of numbers. However, he absolutely can be an elite finisher inside and a respectable shooter while being the alpha dog while also handling the rebounding duties. But last season Brooks averaged 16 points, 10 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per 36 minutes for the full season and demonstrated he can raise that level when playing power forward alongside shooters. I’d expect something like 17 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists per game in about 32 minutes per game. If Brooks improves in 3 point accuracy and frequency, his scoring could tick up even a bit higher. Those are big expectations, but there’s a real reason to believe he can excel when given space to operate.
Even better shooters on the perimeter
I don’t believe UK is going to sustain a level of play that makes them easily the best team in the country next season, but I do believe that they can play a a consistent top-10 level by relying on Brooks + Shooting lineups. Apart from the improvement I expect in Brooks, UK will have better overall scorers and shooters on the perimeter next season.
If Mintz returns, he may be able to approach something like the best version of himself with a more well-spaced floor and a playmaker like Brooks at power forward. When Mintz played in Brooks + Shooting lineups, he hit a staggering 50% of his threes and 75% of his shots in the paint. This resulted in an effective FG% of 60% (compared to 51% for his full season) while taking the 2nd most shots of any UK player in these lineups.
Even if Mintz doesn’t return, UK is in good hands with players like TyTy Washington (a 41% 3 point shooter in 3 HS seasons), CJ Fredrick (47% in 2 NCAA seasons) and Kellan Grady (36%, and rivaling Tyler Herro as a bucket). When Dontaie Allen is suddenly the 4th most dangerous perimeter threat on your team (and 5th if Mintz comes back), you’ve improved that area.
One interesting thing about these Brooks + Shooting lineups is that they didn’t get much of a box score impact from Dontaie Allen at all. He was 2-9 from three and averaged just 6 points per 36 minutes. However, just the threat of him as a shooter created space by extending the defense. Whether it’s Allen himself or one of the other newcomers, Kentucky should get better scoring pop from their secondary perimeter threats this season.
I’d expect UK to play much of the time with 2 or 3 established perimeter shooters, Brooks (and sometimes Jacob Toppin or Bryce Hopkins) at power forward, and Oscar Tshiebwe or Daimion Collins at center. In these types of lineups, Brooks has established that he can be the alpha dog and that UK can put together an elite offense. With even better perimeter threats, I’d expect UK to use this formula to great success next season.