Good Kentucky & Bad Kentucky
Through good runs and bad ones, what patterns hold true for Kentucky?
Tuesday night, Baton Rouge and their LSU Tigers got a very close look at both Good Kentucky and Bad Kentucky. The Wildcats seized the lead with a 16-2 run before stumbling back thanks to a 20-2 run by the Tigers. After the game a broad consensus seemed to form that the LSU game was a throwaway and we shouldn’t take away anything from that game that we didn’t already know.
I actually think there’s some really good information from the LSU game, a lot of it positive. Additionally, the LSU game actually had a lot in common with Kentucky’s first 3 games against quality teams this season (Duke, Notre Dame, North Carolina). In this edition of Hoops Insight, I look at some of the key factors that power Kentucky to runs, and make them vulnerable to opponent runs.
Encouraging signs, but old problems crop up
There are several positive things to take away from the LSU game for Kentucky fans, coaches, and players. First, Kentucky held up just fine on offense against a team who is elite defending the rim and 3 point range. the Wildcats hit 11 of 16 at the rim (69%, nice) and 8 of 24 from 3 (33%, better than the 26% LSU opponents had shot). Kentucky also defended the rim very well themselves, allowing the Tigers just 10 of 24 shooting there (42%).
Before the game I noted that LSU had actually struggled with their starting lineup in the game, and UK handled the Tiger starters just fine. UK was +8 in 28 possessions against lineups with 4 or more LSU starters but -13 in 44 possessions against more bench-heavy units. UK also outscored LSU by 1 point when either Tyty Washington or Sahvir Wheeler was in the game, but lost by 6 points in 13 possessions with neither on the court.
One issue popped up that has hurt UK against better teams this season: a heavy diet of midrange shots, many of them missed. Against each of LSU, North Carolina, and Notre Dame UK took more midrange shots than either shots at the rim or from three. Against Duke, UK actually took 1 more at the rim, but were just 7 for 28 from midrange. Here I’m defining midrange as any 2 pointer not at the rim, because FG% tends to drop sharply at around 4 feet from the rim and decline slowly out to the 3 point line; put another way, players don’t hit 6 foot runners at a meaningfully higher clip than 15 foot jumpers, but they do hit layups at a much higher rate. So, I’m grouping the runners, hook shots, and jumpers together.
Against LSU, Kentucky hit just 2 of 17 midrange shots. For the season UK is hitting 36% from this area, making them an anchor on the offense. To be fair, if UK hit a more typical percentage they would have beaten LSU. However, UK really had trouble against LSU’s length when driving and had to settle for a lot of contested floaters and jumpers.
One obvious bright spot from the LSU game was Jacob Toppin. Not only did he have 14 points, but he did a great job on the boards getting 8 rebounds and collecting an impressive 22% of LSU misses. This again solidified my recent thought that UK is going to be in good hands at power forward with Brooks and Toppin.
While it’s very encouraging that UK mostly lost due to some terrible midrange shooting luck, the midrange shot actually plays a large role in Kentucky’s good and bad runs this season.
Good Kentucky vs. Bad Kentucky
Across Kentucky’s 4 games against top-60 teams this season, I’ve identified some continuous stretches that I call Good Kentucky and Bad Kentucky.
Good Kentucky: 11-0 run vs Duke, 16-2 run vs LSU, 27-4 over 2 runs vs UNC (32 total possessions)
Bad Kentucky: Outscored 14-2 by Duke, 11-1 by Notre Dame, 20-2 by LSU (28 total possessions)
In my stats engine I added these as distinct “teams” so you can see the stats just from these runs (click here to check it out). So what does the data tell us about these?
Unsurprisngly, almost everything went well in the good runs and nothing went well in the bad ones. Good Kentucky had a 71% eFG% vs 18% for opponents, a 95% defensive rebound rate and 59% offensive, and comitted turnovers on 9% of possessions vs 16% for opponents. All very good, although the forced turnovers are maybe lower than you’d expect. Bad Kentucky had just a 5% eFG% vs 63% for opponents, a 59% defensive rebound rate and 21% offensive, and committed turnovers on 25% of possessions vs 4% for opponents (although the turnovers were mostly an issue just vs LSU). Not amazing opponent shooting, but no turnovers from them plus almost no made baskets for UK means domination.
There weren’t any major differences in lineups or player roles that would have indicated the outcomes. In fact, Good Kentucky actually was largely powered by more bench-heavy lineups. Davion Mintz was in for 30 of the 32 possessions, and either TyTy Washington or Sahvir Wheeler was out for 30 of the 32. Jacob Toppin featured in 24 of the 32 Good Kentucky possessions. On the flip side, Oscar Tshiebwe was in for 25 of the 28 Bad Kentucky possessions.
Good Kentucky wasn’t just beating up on bench lineups either. They outscored lineups with 4 or more starters just as easily as bench-heavy lineups, and Bad Kentucky sturggled with bench lineups and starters almost equally.
The biggest different was Kentucky’s shooting, as you could guess from the 71% eFG vs 5% . I would bet that if I asked 100 knowledgeable UK fans, a large majority would bet that Good Kentucky’s shooting was driven by transition and offensive rebounds. Surprisingly, that’s not the case. In UK’s big runs against quality teams, they hit just 6 of 12 shots in transition and 3 of 8 following offenisve rebounds. Similarly, the good shooting by Bad Kentucky’s opponents isn’t driven by transition, as only 7 of opponents’ 34 shots came in transition.
The difference is in halfcourt offense. Good Kentucky hit 12 of 15 shots in halfcourt offense, with a sterling 100% effective FG%. Of those 15 shots, 12 were at the rim or from 3 and just 3 were from midrange. On the flipside, Bad Kentucky hit 1 of 19 shots, and went 0 for 10 from midrange. Amazingly, on their 5 transition opportunities they got 0 shots at the rim; instead, they got 4 midrange shots and 1 three pointer and missed them all. Bad Kentucky took 3 shots at the rim, with 2 of those off of offensive rebounds.
When Kentucky gets sloppy, they settle for pullup jumpers or contested runners that go in at low rates. Kentucky settles for these more than usual against longer defenders, and if they run into some poor shooting luck they get run out of the gym. When Kentucky is crisp, they get to the rim or create open looks from three. If they get some good shooting luck, they go on huge runs.
There’s a definite difference in who is taking these shots as well. When Kentucky is at their best, outside shooters like Kellan Grady and Davion Mintz are a big part. During Good Kentucky runs Grady took 20% of shots when he was in and Mintz took 24%, with 12 of their 14 shots from three. Oscar Tshiebwe is also heavily involved, and at the rim; in Good Kentucky minutes he took 21% of UK shots when in, hitting 5 of 6 (4-4 at the rim). Sahvir Wheeler also is active at the rim, as he went 3 for 5 in Good Kentucky minutes (all at the rim). In Bad Kentucky runs, these all fall off. Grady took just 7% of UK shots (0-1) and Mintz 18% (0-2), with Tshiebwe taking 12% of UK shots and just 1 at the rim. Sahvir Wheeler took zero shots at the rim in Bad Kentucky runs, missing 1 midrange shots and 1 three. Instead, the most active shooter for UK was Jacob Toppin. He took 29% of UK shots in his minutes during these runs, going 0-4 and taking only 1 of those shots in transition and 3 from midrange. Toppin is having a nice 2nd season at UK but his game is not halfcourt shot creation; he’s a finisher in transition, a lengthy defender, and a rebounder. When he’s your most active shooter, something has gone wrong.
Taking more midrange shots doesn’t make Kentucky awful all by itself and taking fewer doesn’t make them unbeatable, but tweaking the offensive approach either way does make a difference on the margins. It’s not a coincidence that UK’s worst stretches overlap with subpar creators taking midrange shots, and their best stretches involves strong rim finishers or good three point shooters using those skills. The good news is this is highly fixable. In the 2014 postseason Calipari famously referred to a “tweak”, and after the season admitted that it was focusing PG Andrew Harrison on distributing rather than shooting. UK may want to try something similar, with a “tweak” to have players drive to create passing lanes to shooters or interior players rather than pulling up for jumpers. If the ballhandler can’t get to the rim, they could help set up a better shot and keep the offense afloat. Kentucky will be running into plenty of lengthy defenders in the SEC this season and will need to adjust to avoid these negative runs. If they do so, Kentucky is on track to be a Final Four contender. If they don’t, it’ll be a nice season that ends with a bad shooting night that looks like a few we’ve seen already this season.