UK vs LSU Preview

UK's first real SEC test comes on the road Tuesday. How do the Wildcats and Tigers match up?

Before UK’s big matchup with LSU, check out in-depth data on each team using my stats engine at https://hoopsinsight.shinyapps.io/HoopsInsight/. You can view team performance by game, filter with and without key players, view lineup data and more!

The next big test for Kentucky this season tips off Tuesday night in Baton Rouge against the LSU Tigers. UK has been on a roll the last 4 games, but this is a chance to gain back the respect of national pollsters that was frittered away in the Duke and Notre Dame losses.

This will be a real heavyweight battle, the first of several ahead for UK in conference. Can UK’s offense prevail against LSU’s defense? Which team’s star transfers will have a bigger impact? What areas of the game can each team get their biggest advantage? I’ve got the data, and hopefully I can tell the story well enough.

UK’s offense vs LSU’s defense

Per KenPom, UK ranks 8th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency this season. The two main strengths are offensive rebounding (where UK ranks first nationally) and FG% at the rim (where, per hoop-math.com, UK is also first nationally). The FG% at the rim isn’t just due to offensive rebounding, but it helps. UK is hitting 80% of their shots at the rim after an offensive rebound and 73% otherwise; even that 73% would rank 4th nationally.

This isn’t just an Oscar Tshiebwe thing; every single starter for UK hits at least 72% at the rim and every rotation player hits 64% or better. Last season UK had just 1 “rotation” player hit >72% at the rim; that was Dontaie Allen, who went 3-4 there and was probably not quite a rotation player anyway. Both Wheeler and Washington are above 72% and have each taken at least 29 shots at the rim; the only Calipari guard who took at least 20 shots at the rim and hit 72% or better was Devin Booker in 2015.

It’s not just transition baskets that help UK finish at the rim, either. Per hoop-math.com, UK hits 75% of their shots at the rim in halfcourt offense and 80% in transition. Both Wheeler and Washington are above 72% at the rim in halfcourt offense, too.

I believe it’s UK’s improved spacing this season that is making the difference. In past seasons UK stuck to lineups with 2 post players to maximize offensive rebounding. While this allowed Kentucky to compete on the boards, it clogged up the lane severely and drew defenders that impeded the ability for guards to finish. This season OScar Tshiebwe gets the offensive rebounds by himself, allowing UK to space the floor more and create driving lanes for guards.

Kentucky has been using transition offense very effectively this season. The Wildcats take 33% of their initial shots in transition, 15th in the country. In the last 4 games that’s crept up over 40%. UK has also unlocked a more effective halfcourt offense in recent games. UK is at 51% from three in halfcourt offneseover the last 4 games, with Kellan Grady at a scintillating 56% in halfcourt from three. This is papering over subpar shot selection, as UK takes 44% of their shots in halfcourt offense from midrange and hits just 34% in the last 4 games.

LSU’s defense is #1 in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom and ranks in the top 13 in:

• Opponent 2pt FG%

• Opponent 3pt FG%

• Block %

• Steal %

• Opponent effective Fg%

• Opponent turnover %

LSU doesn’t force opponents into low percentage shots like midrange; quite the opposite in fact. LSU opponents take a ton of shots from 3 ((48% from there) but hit almost none (26%). They also take a fair number of shots at the rim (34% there) but hit only 47%, 12th in the country.

LSU will basically always have either freshman Efton Reid or sophomore transfer Tari Eason on the court, and they do the shotblocking damage around the rim. However, LSU has done most of their defensive damage against opponents outside Power 5 conferences. Penn State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Auburn combined to hit 62% at the rim against LSU, while all other Tiger opponents hit 43%.

LSU’s three point defense is interesting as well. While the Tigers are at 26% allowed on threes overall, that breaks down into:

• Opponents hit 12% from three in transition

• 29% from three in halfcourt offense or following an offensive rebound

• 31% in the last 10 seconds of the shot clock

Even holding opponents to 31% would be good for the full season, but the fact that opponents have hit 12% on transition threes feels very flukey. Typically, elite defenses get better as the shot clock winds down because they have excellent one-on-one defenders (often with length) who force bad shots. The fact that LSU actually gets worse late in the clock makes me think they’re benefitting from some opponent shooting luck. The LSU defense may be very good, but it' probably won’t finish the year as the best in the country.

Turnovers are where LSU is likely going to hurt UK. LSU is forcing turnovers on 27% of opponent possessions. UK has been pretty good at avoiding turnovers, but even against the least-turnover prone teams on their schedule LSU forced turnovers 26% of the time. If UK commits a lot of turnovers, the Wildcats are going to need to dominate the offensive glass to get enough shot volume to keep up the scoring pace with LSU.

LSU offense vs UK defense

This is the less interesting half of the court in this game, frankly. LSU’s offense hasn’t been very good, ranking just 80th per KenPom. They just aren’t very good from anywhere, ranking 119th at the rim, 301st from midrange, and 284th from 3 (per hoop-math.com). Their turnovers are really their best weapon, as LSU scores at a poor rate in halfcourt offense. If UK can commit fewer than 18 turnovers or so, LSU probably will have a lot of trouble generating offense.

In their 4 games against major conference opponents, LSU’s top players had some distinct patterns. Darius Days pretty much stayed on the perimeter, taking over half of his shots from three and hitting just 19%. Tari Eason took a ton of shots with some success, averaging 24 pts per 40 min but taking over 30% of LSU’s shots; he posted a subpar 47% effective FG% and took half of his shots in transition. Guard Xavier Pinson was also inefficient, taking half of his shots from three and hitting just 24%.

UK’s defense is ranked 17th by KenPom, and has several areas of strength. UK basically allows nobody to get offensive rebounds; only Mount Saint Mary’s got more than 30% of their misses and that required garbage time (they were at 24% per garbage time). UK also forces opponents into a lot of inefficient 2 point jumpers, allowing relatively few shots at the rim or from three. UK has gotten burned against major conference opponents by allowing them to get to the rim a lot, which is a key to watch for against LSU. Tari Eason, Alex Fudge, and Mwani Wilkinson are all solid finishers at the rim, and LSU tends to play lineups with 2 of them plus either Darius Days or Efton Reid in the middle. This means Kellan Grady will likely need to defend a player who can score at the rim, and will need to hold up better than he did against Notre Dame. If LSu can score in the halfcourt, they either 1) got unusually hot from deep or 2) used a bigger wing to bully Grady around the hoop.

Other thoughts

LSU has oddly struggled with their starters, especially against major confernce teams. Against Penn State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Auburn their most played lineups in each game combined to get outscored by -15 points across 58 possessions. The Tigers had 10 lineups who played 10 more more possessions across those 4 games in total; those 10 lineups were outscored by a combined -23 points.

Where LSU tends to pull ahead is in spurts early in the second half. They trailed Penn State and Georgia Tech at the half but erased those deficits by the 2nd TV timeout in the 2nd half. They also pieced together a flurry against Auburn to cut a deficit down to 9 before going cold from the field. It wasn’t the starters doing this, but rather quick substitutions bringing pressure. UK has mostly pulled away in the last few games during the first part of the second half, but did struggle against Missouri due to turnover issues.

The recipe for LSU winning goes something like this:

• UK commits a ton of turnovers, and LSU has multiple runs of 6-8 point advantages due to converting steals

• Kellan Grady isn’t able to get open for three much, and LSU’s swarming shotblockers keep Kentucky to a manageable FG% at the rim

• LSU’s bigger wings are able to bully Grady and get to the basket, and UK doesn’t have the shotblocking to stop them

• Oscar Tshiebwe gets in foul trouble and UK plays lineups with poor shooting/spacing

All in all, however, I am bullish on UK’s chances for a couple reasons:

1. WKU also had a terrific interior defense, and Oscar Tshiebwe and UK were able to do just fine

2. LSU allows a ton of 3 pointers, and I suspect Grady and Washington will hit their fair share

3. LSU’s halfcourt offense really is pretty bad, and UK should find a way to score enough to win

4. LSU’s big men don’t draw a ton of fouls, and none of the power conference opponents had a big man foul out against LSU

This would be a big statement win for Kentucky. What they’ve shown over the last 4 games makes me believe they could be a real Final Four contender this season, but they need to do it against top teams. UK has improved their offense with better spacing and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they came out early and established a lead. LSU will have runs created by steals, but I suspect UK will be a steadier team and come out with a win on Tuesday.