Which is the real Kentucky?
There's a clear Good UK and Bad UK...but what makes the difference?
Kentucky has played 5 games this season; that’s 10 halves of basketball. Over those 10 halves Kentucky has been pretty mediocre, on average. How they’ve gotten there has been a different story. Kentucky has played 5 halves of basketball at a very high level:
Both halves vs Morehead State
1st half vs Richmond
1st half vs Kansas
2nd half vs Notre Dame
We’ll call that “Good UK”.
They’ve played the other 5 halves at a horrible level:
2nd half vs Richmond
2nd half vs Kansas
Both halves vs Georgia Tech
1st half vs Notre Dame
We’ll call that “Bad UK”. The two are nearly mirror images.
“Good UK” has outscored opponents by 67 points in 180 possessions; “Bad UK” has been outscored by 64 point in 180 possessions. “Good UK” has a 53% eFg% to 34% for opponents; “Bad UK” has a 40% eFG% to 57% for opponents. “Good UK” has forced turnovers on 25% of opponent possessions; “Bad UK” has turned it over on 26% of theirs. The question is, what’s driving the difference? Can Kentucky be “Good UK” consistently, or just avoid being “Bad UK”?
Nothing easy to point to
The first and most important thing to point out is that “Good UK” is not just a result of playing poor opponents. They had a 9 point lead early in the second half against a very good Kansas team. Adjusting for opponent strength, “Good UK” has an adjusted scoring margin of +38 points per 100 possessions; that is a phenomenal number and would be the best of any team in the country. But “Bad UK” has an adjusted scoring margin of -22 per 100 possessions; that is a horrid number and would be among the 5 worst in the country. So how can the same team play like the best team in the nation half the time and like one of the worst teams the other half?
Kentucky is largely using the same lineups in both situations. The 2 most played lineups during the good halves are Askew/Clarke/Boston/Jackson/Sarr and Mintz/Clarke/Boston/Jackson; these are also the two most played lineups during the bad halves. These lineups have dominated during good halves and been dominated during bad halves. It would be nice to have an easy answer that Kentucky struggles when they don’t have their preferred lineups on the court, but that’s not happening here.
Kentucky’s bad halves do tend to come when opponents are playing more starter-heavy lineups. During the bad halves, Kentucky played 91% of their possessions against 4 or more opposing starters; that drops to just 55% in the good halves. That seems like a simple answer, right? Kentucky probably struggles when playing against opposing starters, so playing against them more is bad. But that’s not happening. In the bad halves, Kentucky is getting beaten badly by these starter-heavy lineups, putting up and adjusted margin of -28 per 100 possesssions. But in the good halves, Kentucky has an adjusted margin of +33 per 100 against 4 or more starters.
So what exactly is going on?
3 key factors
There appear to be 3 things that are happening, with 2 distinct causes. The good news is these causes are things Kentucky can do going forward, and that they should benefit from.
1) FG% in the paint: Most casual observers would probably point to outside shooting as a big factor in whether UK plays well or not, but it’s actually their scoring in the paint that is a bigger factor:
Kentucky takes 61% of their shots outside the paint in good halves and has a 39% effective Fg% there; in bad halves, they take 62% and have a 34% effective Fg%. That’s not a tremendous difference, but…
Kentucky takes 39% of their shots in the paint in good halves and hit 76%; in bad halves, they take 38% there and hit just 52%.
There’s a notable difference in who is taking shots in the paint, too. In good halves Olivier Sarr has taken 11 shots in the paint, 21% of UK’s total; he has taken 31% of UK’s paint shots when he is in the game. But in bad halves he’s only taken 6 shots in the paint. You might think he’s played much less in the bad halves, but that’s not true; he has played 123 possessions in the bad halves and 122 in the good ones. Sarr has taken only 12% of UK’s paint shots during bad halves, and only 16% when he’s in the game. Sarr has hit 73% of his shots in the paint, and if you’re going to play him you need to use his strength of scoring inside.
2) Forcing turnovers: I mentioned in the opening that Kentucky has forced turnovers in good halves at almost the same rate they commit them in bad halves. During bad halves, Kentucky commits turnovers on 26% of possessions and forces them on 10%. During good halves, Kentucky commits them on 21% (still high, but better) and forces them on 25%. So, the bigger factor is Kentucky forcing turnovers, rather than limiting them. The difference in forcing turnovers has been staggering between good and bad halves; Kentucky has not had a single bad half where they forced turnovers on more than 13% of possessions, but has not had a good half where they forced turnovers on less than 13% of possessions! This has even flipped from half to half against opponents; Kansas committed turnovers on 21% of first half possessions but 9% in the second, and Notre Dame went from 12% in the first half to a staggering 39% in the second. That’s not the only area on defense that makes a huge difference, though…
3) Defending outside the paint: Kentucky has not been good at defending the paint this season in either good or bad halves. Opponents take around 40% of their shots there and make about 65% in both situations. Outside the paint is a different story, however. Here’s UK’s opponent’s shot chart when UK has good halves:
Now when UK has bad halves:
In all, opponents have an effective FG% outside the paint of 17% when UK has good halves and 50% when they have bad halves.
The good news is points 2 and 3 have a similar solution: play Devin Askew and Davion Mintz together, preferably with Isaiah Jackson.
2 point guard lineups are a hidden gem
Kentucky has not played Askew and Mintz together a lot. They have played 80 possessions together out of 360 total. However, there are some common themes. First, Kentucky limits turnovers when they play together. UK’s turnover rate is just 18% when both point guards are in the game, vs 23% overall. You can win turning it over 18% of the time; Baylor, Texas, Kansas, and Illinois are all above that number. Kentucky is steadier with the dual point guard look.
Second, Kentucky is at their best in halfcourt defense when Askew and Mintz are sharing the court, along with Isaiah Jackson. Opponents are 3-19 outside the paint when Kentucky has these three sharing the court. Askew and Mintz have been excellent on-ball defenders for much of this early season, and pairing them with the rangy Jackson suffocates opponents forays to the hoop.
These lineups aren’t just performing well during UK’s good stretches; they are also a rare glimmer of hope even in the bad halves. In UK’s bad halves, the Cats have a turnover rate of just 16% with Askew and Mintz on the court together, but 28% when just one of them plays. With the Askew/Mintz/Jackson trio standing guard, UK has allowed opponent to hit just 1 of 6 shots outside the paint even during the bad halves when Kentucky is getting steamrolled. Even more notably, these combos feature in the rare lineups which have managed to outscore UK opponents even during bad halves. Askew/Mintz/Clarke/Jackson/Sarr is the only Kentucky lineup with a positive scoring margin in both good halves and bad halves. They are +7 in 13 possessions in the bad halves and +7 in 10 possessions during the good ones. A small-ball variation of this, Askew/Mintz/Clarke/Boston/Jackson, is +6 in 6 possessions during the bad halves; they might have had a positive scoring margin in the good halves but they did not play together at all in them. These two lineups are the only UK lineups who played more than 5 possessions during the bad halves and outscored the opponents. These two lineups have been able to force turnovers even during bad halves, coming up with 4 in just 23 opponent possessions (17%).
It’s a really small sample, but the numbers are overwhelmingly pointing out that:
UK needs to get Olivier Sarr shots in the paint when he’s in the game
2 point guard lineups can win the turnover battle
Askew/Mintz/Jackson is a holy terror in halfcourt defense for opponents
UK’s bad stretches would have been even worse if not for these factors above, and the good stretches were good largely because of these factors. Kentucky needs to prioritize Sarr paint touches and playing 2 point guards (with Jackson as much as possible) if they want to be more like “Good UK” and less like “Bad UK” going forward.