What is UK's path to victory vs Auburn?

The Wildcats and the Tigers have a massive showdown on Saturday. What are the keys to UK pulling out a road victory?

Kentucky is in for one heck of a test on Saturday at Auburn. Not only do they have to play the Auburn Tigers (#2 in AP poll, #7 in KenPom) but they do it on the road without the benefit of a return match at home. Believe me, the Tigers are absolutely for real.

This will be UK’s 4th game against a team in the KenPom top 20 this season (Duke, LSU, Tennessee) and they have a whopping 5 more remaining. Losing this game doesn’t doom Kentucky in terms of NCAA seeding, but it does make it less likely that UK will get the SEC Championship or a 1 seed come March. This will be a good old fashioned measuring stick game, with two of the best teams in the country seeing what the other has to offer.

Auburn is the stiffest test UK will face this season, but what makes the Tigers so good? More importantly, what might make them vulnerable against Kentucky?

A deep and consistently elite team

Auburn has 11 players who are averaging at least 10 minutes per game, although one of them (Allen Flanigan) just returned from an Achilles injury 6 games ago to rejoin the rotation. Auburn isn’t especially top-heavy; just the opposite, in fact. Their usual starting lineup of Zep Jasper, KD Johnson, Jabari Smith, Walker Kessler and either Devan Cambridge or Allen Flanigan actually has been one of their weaker lineups in terms of outscoring opponents. Those groups are only +12 in 173 possessions for an adjusted margin of +15 points per 100 possessions, while Auburn overall has an adjusted margin of +31 per 100 poss (excluding garbage time).

Auburn does more of their damage when backup PG Wendell Green is in the game, along with frontcourt stalwarts Walker Kessler and Jabari Smith; with this trio in, Auburn boasts an adjusted margin of +40. However, Auburn is able to mix and match any two of these three and still put very strong lineups on the court. A good rule of thumb is that an adjusted margin of +20 per 100 is about equivalent to a top-20 team, and +25 or better is top 10. Auburn has 12 lineups this season who have played at least 25 possessions, and 9 of them have exceeded an adjusted margin of +20. These 9 lineups have featured 10 different players as well, so Auburn has a lot of options that can compete at a high level. For comparison, UK has only 7 lineups who have played 25 or more possessions (all at a +20 adj margin or better) and only 8 different players have featured in these groups.

Auburn has also been quite consistent this season. In their 18 games, Auburn only has 3 performances where they graded out at an adjusted margin below 20: wins over South Florida and Saint Louis, as well as a loss to UConn. Kentucky has 4 games below that level (Duke, Notre Dame, Southern, LSU), and barely surpassed it in their road win over Texas A&M. Conversely, Auburn as not played any games at the level UK did in routs of UNC, WKU, and Tennessee. Kentucky has been streakier than Auburn, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that play out within Saturday’s game. Kentucky may put together more strong runs than Auburn, but I’d expect Auburn to be pretty consistent through the game.

Auburn’s strengths and weaknesses

Auburn’s strengths largely revolve around their interior defense. The Tigers block shots at a higher rate than any other team and allow the 6th lowest FG% at the rim. Auburn does allow a high rate of shots at the rim, but snuffs out the danger more often than not. One interesting fact is that Auburn has played a difficult schedule, so their impressive defensive stats aren’t inflated by playing a bunch of cupcakes. In fact, Auburn’s defense has been just as good against their better opponents. Top-100 ranked teams (per KenPom) have hit 50% of their shots at the rim against Auburn, while teams ranked below 100 have hit 48%.

Auburn also forces a lot of turnovers. It seems like every game UK plays this season is against someone in the top 25 nationally in turnovers (LSU, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Texas A&M) so it might feel like a break that Auburn is “only” 34th in turnover rate, but the Tigers are 16th in forcing steals and only 235th in dead-ball turnovers (offensive fouls, traveling, etc.), so the turnovers Auburn gets are more likely to turn into points.

The other strength Auburn has is the presence of Jabari Smith, who is quite simply an offensive marvel. He’s a 6’10” freshman power forward who hits 44% from three on 5 attempts per game and 66% at the rim. Smith is also a devastating weapon late in the shot clock. He’s taken 23 shots this season in the last 5 seconds of the shot clock and has a staggering 67% effective FG% on them. Auburn as a team is at 50%, so he’s easily their best option when things get hairy. He’s going to be trouble for UK, as he’ll likely draw their power forwards away from the basket and out of rebounding position.

Auburn doesn’t have many weaknesses, but there are some areas where they aren’t as proficient. The Tigers are not very good at finishing at the rim, ranking just 226th in FG% there. Their guards (Jasper, Green, Johnson) in particular all hit less than 42% at the rim. Kentucky’s bigs should resist the urge to cheat over and help on drives, which could open up passes or rebounding opportunities for Auburn’s bigs. Instead, UK needs to make Auburn’s guards make tough shots at the rim…they haven’t shown they can do that at a high level.

Overall Auburn’s offense isn’t very efficient on a per-possession basis. They are pretty good in transition (58% effective FG% there) but not as much in halfcourt offense (50% eFG%). The Tigers are able to overcome this by “shot volume”, meaning they tend to have fewer turnovers and more offensive rebounds than their opponents and simply get more chances to score. If Kentucky can avoid losing the turnover battle by a significant margin and the Wildcats do Wildcat things on the boards, UK can put pressure on Auburn to be more efficient than UK on shots and that’s not the Tiger’s strength. One particular way that this has shown up against top-100 teams is in a very poor effective FG% in late-clock situations. Auburn has a 58% effective Fg% on shots taken in the first 20 seconds of the shot clock against quality teams, but just 40% in the last 10 seconds. Of their rotation players, only Jabari Smith has an effective FG% above 40% in these situations; both Green and Jasper are below 30%. If Kentucky can stymie Auburn into late-clock situations, they should look to deny Smith the ball and make other Tigers try to score. Auburn doesn’t usually get out in transition very often, so Kentucky could have success if their halfcourt defense is up to the task.

Auburn also has a couple of weaknesses in perimeter D. In watching film, their guards seemed to have some trouble containing ballhandlers especially after quick change-of-direction moves. This could be why opponents are able to get shots at the rim, but the guards may be willing to let ballhandlers penetrate knowing that the best shotblocker in the country (Kessler) is waiting. TyTy Washington’s midrange game may be a nice weapon against Auburn, as he’s hitting 55% of his jumpers between 5 feet and the 3 point line. Additionally, Auburn is not always diligent at closing out on shooters. Just over 50% of catch and shoot threes against Auburn are unguarded, while Kentucky only allows about 40% of opponents catch and shoot threes to be unguarded. Grady, Mintz, and Washington should be able to get a few good looks from three in this game.

This is the toughest test all season for Kentucky. When analyzing LSU and Tennessee, I felt there were some hints that those two may not be quite as good as their numbers suggested. There’s no such indicator with Auburn; if anything, Auburn may even be a bit better than their reputation. Their stats this season have not been inflated by opponent shooting luck, weak strength of schedule, or any flukey shooting splits. However, I think Kentucky matches up fairly well against the Tigers. UK has been able to finish at the rim against great interior defenses. LSU, WKU, and Tennessee all had strong reputations around their rim defense and UK hit 86% inside against them. Kentucky also has not been very turnover prone, with the exception of the Wheeler & TyTy-less minutes against LSU and Wheeler’s adventures against Texas A&M. Kentucky has punished teams who give up open threes, and they’ve forced opponents to either keep a body on Oscar Tshiebwe or guard the rim. As long as Kentucky doesn’t run into a cold shooting night, they should be able to hang with Auburn just fine. I think it comes down to whether UK can contain Jabari Smith or not. He has the capacity to put up 30 or more on UK if need be, but if UK can make Auburn’s guards prove themselves I think the Wildcats will return home with a significant notch in their belt.