What does UK need to work on?
As the regular season winds to a close, there are a few trends that UK needs to reverse in order to be at their best for the postseason
Kentucky’s run through the gauntlet of SEC play is almost over, and the Wildcats have largely survived intact. Kentucky’s guards had their share of bumps, bruises, and missed games, and the Cats likely won’t be claiming the SEC regular season title, but they made statement after statement and have proven themselves to be national title contenders.
Only 1 team’s season gets a happy ending however. OK, maybe 2 if you count Memphis’ unbridled joy after an NIT championship. Of the 68 teams who will enter the NCAA Tournament, 67 are going to come up short. Something’s going to go wrong when it matters most, and it will probably be something that popped up at some point during the regular season. What might cause problems for Kentucky in their crusade for a title? In this edition of Hoops Insight, I look at a couple problem areas recently for Kentucky and what I’d like to see from Kentucky this week against Ole Miss and Florida in order to be convinced the Cats are over these stumbles.
Problems from midrange (again, sigh…)
Longtime readers of mine know that Kentucky’s stubborn insistence on taking lots of midrange shots is maybe my main pet peeve of the Cats under Calipari. Last year I wrote about the historical pattern of UK to take lots of midrange shots and not make them very often:
This season Kentucky has taken a lot of midrange shots once again. They rank 8th nationally in the percentage of shots taken from midrange, per hoop-math.com. Through the Kansas game, however, this wasn’t much of a problem. Kentucky was hitting 39% of these shots, good for about 90th in the country. They hit 50% against the Jayhawks, 65% against Tennessee, and 52% against Georgia, all strong offensive efforts. If UK could hit 40%+ from midrange, it would probably be a useful weapon.
Reader, you’ll be SHOCKED to learn that the acceptable shooting has not lasted. Since the Kansas win, UK is hitting just 30% of their midrange shots. The Cats have not hit above 35% in any game. Their best shooter from that area has been Oscar Tshiebwe, who’s hitting a mere 36%. Grady, Mintz, and Wheeler are all under 30% from there. What’s worse is that Kentucky has actually taken a larger percentage of their shots from midrange since the Kansas win (41% vs 36%). Of their rotation players only Mintz and Grady take less than 30% of their shots from midrange; Keion Brooks is taking 64% of his shots from there!
Kentucky has an excellent offense this season, so they can get by without being elite marksmen from midrange. However, of UK’s 6 losses this season three can be traced directly back to poor midrange shooting:
At LSU, UK was 2 for 17 (12%)
At Auburn, UK was 8 for 32 (25%)
At Arkansas, UK was 5 for 24 (21%)
Over the next 2 games, I’d like to see UK demonstrate that they can either hit an acceptable percentage from midrange (40%+) or decrease their dependence on that shot. I’ll consider it a win if UK hits 40%+ from midrange over the next 2 games and/or takes 35% or fewer of their shots from there.
A bit more thievery would be nice
Kentucky has not depended on forcing turnovers this season, ranking just 222nd per KenPom. However, a higher than usual percentage of opponent turnovers have been steals. Per KenPom, UK is 120th in the percentage of opponent possessions ending in a steal, but 312th in the percentage ending in a deadball turnover. This is a nice bonus for UK’s offense, as starting a possession with a steal is the most effective way to create a score.
While UK has not been especially larcenous this season, the last 6 games they’ve been downright charitable in letting opponents continue possessions. They have forced a turnover on just 14% of opponent possessions. That would be a bottom-25 rate for the full season. None of those opponents are especially good at avoiding turnovers, either, with only Arkansas (76th) ranking in the top 100 in lowest turnover rate.
I’m not overly concerned about this as an ongoing issue, however. Over that same 6 game stretch, UK has forced a turnover on 17% of possessions when Sahvir Wheeler is in the game but just 11% when Wheeler sat. With Wheeler in, only Tennessee turned it over less than 21% of the time.
I’d expect UK will be able to force turnovers at their usual rate with Wheeler and Washington back from injury, but I’d like to see UK demonstrate that this week. Forcing turnovers on 18% or more of possessions is a reasonable goal I think.
See the three, be the three
The last 4 games must have been the culmination of John Calipari’s dream offense, as UK has taken less than 25% of their shots from three point range in every game. Prior to this stretch UK only had 1 instance all season of consecutive games where they were that three-averse. The Wildcats take a lower percentage of shots from three than all but 11 D-1 teams, and lower than any other Power 6 conference team.
It’s not just that UK isn’t shooting a lot of threes; it’s that the players who are good at shooting threes are taking fewer of them. Grady and Mintz have taken 55% of their shots from three in the past 6 games and 49% from three in the last 4 games; they were at 68% in SEC play before this stretch. UK has a couple of perimeter weapons in Mintz and Grady, and doesn’t need them taking bushels of 2 point jumpers.
One issue is that Kentucky is largely dependent on Wheeler and Washington to create threes for other players. In SEC play UK has hit 105 threes, and 87 of them have been assisted. Wheeler and Washington rank 1 and 2 in the number of threes they assisted, and account for 48 of those 87 assists on threes. Kentucky has largely been unable to create threes by playing through the post, as Tshiebwe and Ware have accounted for just 9 assists on three pointers in SEC play. This makes Kentucky’s three point attack a bit one-dimensional, as it depends on Wheeler and/or Washington to beat their man off the dribble and attract the defense to create open shots.
There’s been a pattern in recent games where Kentucky struggles to generate threes when opponents have point guards who can contain the dribble. Excluding games where Wheeler was injured, Kentucky shot relatively few threes against Arkansas, at Alabama, and at Auburn. Each of those teams has a point guard who rates as Excellent or Very Good in defending isolation, per Synergy. Conversely, UK took a relatively high percentage of shots from three against Florida and Mississippi State; both of these teams have point guards rated Average or worse in defending isolation, per Synergy.
Neither Ole Miss or Florida is very good at containing point guards off the dribble, which should open up opporutnities for UK to generate threes in their preferred style. I’d consider it a success this week if UK took 30% or more of their shots from three. Additionally, I’d like to see UK develop some wrinkles to generate good looks from three without relying on Wheeler and Washington to create off the dribble.
Kentucky is absolutely a national title contender, and that’s as true today as it was before the Arkansas loss. Calipari-coached teams tend to improve through the season and be near their best in March. To accomplish that this season, I’d like to see improvement in some or all of these areas where they’ve slipped a bit lately. Absent that, Kentucky is still a contender but loses a bit of the flexibility that’s helped them put up some amazing performances this season.
More 3 pointers taken doesn’t always mean more made, but UK has two excellent shooters who are being used less than they have been before. UK already takes fewer threes than almost anybody, and they’re even below that low standard. The way UK shoots from midrange, they’re better off even with a bad shooting night from three.
You assume that more 3 point shots taken means more 3 point shots made - I still cringe when I remember the Sweet 16 John Wall team clanging 3-pointers ad nauseum. And when a 3 point shooter is run off the line, a step-in 2 pointer can be a good alternative when the shot clock is running low. And against the zone - the 2 point mid range can be a great shot. That said, I agree the best shooters from whichever range should be targeted to take the shots they excel at.