UK's suddenly accurate offense, plus an Alabama preview
UK's offense has been outstanding this season, and I explain how shot selection is a key. Plus I preview the battle with the Crimson Tide!
A core tenet of basketball analytics is that different types of shots are more valuable than others, based on a) how often those types of shots go in and b) how many points you get for making them. It’s basic math when you boil it down to the simplest example: a player who make 1/3 of their 3 pointers is just as effective as a player who makes 1/2 of their two pointers. You can slice and dice this by classifying shots differently (by distance, usually) or by looking at individual players or even specific situations (like in the clutch, using whatever definition you want). Good offense = taking more high value shots.
Kentucky, to put it kindly, has not been known for an analytics-friendly style of offense under John Calipari. They consistently are among the national leaders in taking two-point jumpers, which don’t go in very often and are only worth two points. They don’t take very many three pointers, and usually don’t rank especially well in effective field goal percentage (a way of adjusting for the extra value of threes and stating FG% in terms of what you’d need to shoot on just twos to score the same points; more analytics terms defined here). Before this season UK hadn’t ranked in the top 50 since 2016, as college basketball eFG% has trended upwards thanks to embracing threes and shots at the rim.
In Calipari’s first four years at UK the Cats finished in the top 41 in effective FG% every year, averaging just a hair under 53%. The national leaders were around 58% during that time. But since 2016, UK was under 53% every season and the national leaders were around 59-61%. College basketball offenses got more effective at producing points, and UK got worse. Until this season.
This season UK is 30th in effective FG% with a mark of 54.4%. That is the best a Calipari-led UK team has ever put up, and combined with great offensive rebounding that has Kentucky ranked 4th per KenPom in offensive efficiency. This is despite UK rarely getting to the free throw line (the most effective way to score points), where that was a strong suit for previously great UK offenses.
UK has been even better as their competition has gotten tougher. Prior to playing LSU, UK played exactly 1 defense who ranks better than 130th in eFG% allowed, and that was Duke in the opener. In their last 9 games, UK has played 5 games against teams in the top 90 in eFG% defense and only 2 against teams outside the top 130. But UK’s effective FG% has actually risen to 55% while playing tougher defenses. So how did UK get so good this season at putting the ball in the basket? In this Hoops Insight, I explain how shot selection is powering the Cats offense.
Not just one factor
“It’s simple,” you might say. “Oscar Tshiebwe is a wrecking ball at the basket, that’s the key!” It’s true, Oscar Tshiebwe is a very good scorer at the rim, hitting 79% of his shots there. But Kentucky has had effiient big men; Nick Richards led the nation in FG% at the rim in 2020 at 83% and UK wasn’t anywhere near as accurate as they are now.
“I know! It’s Kellan Grady hitting threes,” you might then postulate. But that’s not enough to explain it. UK is only 80th in 3pt FG%, and 343rd in frequency of 3 pointers. In 2011 UK was 9th in 3pt FG% and a positively trigger-happy 180th in 3 point frequency, and their effective FG% that season was 2% lower than this season.
There are 2 main concepts that are powering UK’s newfound accuracy this season:
All of UK’s 7 most frequent shooters have a shot that creates efficient offense
AND
Each of UK’s top 7 players takes their efficient shots more frequently than their less efficient ones
I’m going to propose we classify shots into 4 groups: Threes, Long Twos, Short Twos, and At the Rim. Threes are self explanatory. Long Twos are any two pointer from 17 feet or farther (per Synergy data). Short Twos are jumpers inside of 17 feet, hook shots, or runners. Shots at the rim ar layups or dunks. Synergy classifies these shots based on video tracking, so I’ll trust them.
We’ll then have two metrics for each type of shot. First is points per shot, which is points scored on that shot divided by the number of attempts. So if Jacob Toppin has taken 3 threes and hit 2, he’s generated 6 points on 3 shots or 2 points per shot. Second is the percent that each shot makes up of that player’s total field goal attempts. I’ve tracked these metrics for each of UK’s 7 most frequent shooters, and plotted the results on the chart below (click to enlarge)
There’s quite a bit going on in this chart, but let me point out the key stuff:
The dotted line represents UK’s average points per shot (about 1.09), and the most frequent shot type for each of UK’s top 7 players is better than that average. During the last 9 games, Toppin, Tshiebwe, Brooks, and Wheeler have taken more shots at the rim than any of the other categories used here, Mintz and Grady have taken more threes, and Washington has taken more short twos. For each of these players, that most frequent shot generates more points per shot than the average for UK. Put another way, UK’s players are focusing most of their time on high-value shots.
UK takes more of the most efficient shots (Threes and At the Rim) and relatively less of inefficient ones (Long Twos and Short Twos). More notably, the players who take the highest frequency of Short Twos (Washington) and Long Twos (Brooks) hit them enough to generate quality offense at or above UK’s overall average.
UK has been doing this with relative inefficiency from TyTy Washington. Over the last 9 games, TyTy has been the least efficient Wildcat at the rim (40% FG%, or 0.80 pts per shot) and the least efficient guard on threes (22% FG% or 0.67 pts per shot). Despite this cold spell he’s still hit 66% at the rim and 36% from 3 on the season, so he’s likely to bounce back and UK could get even better.
UK can be vulnerable to tough interior defense. The Vanderbilt game showed what can happen if teams rough up UK near the rim, or fight them for position. In that game UK took just 11 shots at the rim, their lowest in the last 9 games and tied for lowest all season, but took 28 short or long twos, tied for their highest total in that area all season. The Wildcats then went 7 of 11 at the rim, 4 of 13 on short twos, and 3 of 15 on long twos. UK didn’t do much worse than their season averages from each spot, but took so many inefficient shots that their offense suffered.
I still wish UK would cut the short and long twos down substantially, but this season UK has shown a huge amount of progress in creating an efficient offense and it’s paid off. Each of UK’s top 7 players has something they can do to create efficient offense, and they focus on doing that more than anything else. That’s hugely important and is powering one of the best offenses in college basketball right now.
Will UK get Good Bama or Bad Bama this weekend?
No college basketball team in recent memory may embody the concept of Jekyll and Hyde quite like Alabama this season. The Tide have wins over Gonzaga, Houston, Baylor, Tennessee, and LSU (all in the top 15 of the NET rankings), but losses to Iona, Memphis, Davidson, Missouri, and Georgia (all 50th or lower, with Missouri and Georgia just awful). This could be a manifestation of the old adage “playing to the level of your competition”, but I think something else is at play here.
The easy answer for some is to point to Alabama’s love of the three point shot and claim that is the cause of their downfall. Alabama does take the 17th highest frequency of 3 pointers in the country, and the highest of any major conference team. Live by the three, die by the three. But that can be easily checked, and it’s not true. In their 8 losses Alabama has taken 47% of their shots from three and hit 31%. In their 14 wins, Alabama has taken 46% of their shots from three and hit 31%. There’s just no difference in their 3 point shooting between wins and losses. So what is making the difference?
It’s two factors. First, Alabama has really struggled in transition in their losses. Their eFG% in transition has been 55% in the losses and 60% in their wins, with FG% at the rim being the factor. Alabama hits 58% of their transition shots at the rim in losses but 76% in wins. The key appears to be Jahvon Quinerly and Jaden Shackelford. In losses they are hitting 40% at the rim in transition and taking about 45% of Alabama’s shots on the break; the Tide’s other key players are hitting 73% at the rim in transition. In wins, Quinerly and Shackelford are better at about 70% at the rim in transition, but take only about 33% of the Tide’s transition shots. Their teammates hit 82% in transition at the rim. To exploit this, UK should focus on getting back on transition defense and playing Shackelford and Quinerly to pass on the break. Shackelford especially is finishing only about 42% of his fast break layups, so UK should deny his passes and make him finish over defenders.
Second, Alabama has had major problems on interior defense in their losses. They allow opponents to take 39% of shots at the rim in halfcourt offense and hit 67% in losses. These figures are 36% and a 57% FG% in Bama wins. Digging a bit deeper, Alabam’s interior defense is at its best when Noah Gurley is the lone big in the game. While he isn’t the shot blocker that teammate Charles Bediako is, he’s a better postional defender, possibly due to his seniority (senior transfer vs freshman for Bediako). But in Alabama’s 8 losses, Gurley played just 39% of the time compared to 48% in their wins. Alabama is also highly vulnerable to putbacks, especially when Bediako is in the game; he tends to give up rebounding position going for blocks. Kentucky should look to attack the interior with Wheeler and Washington when Bediako is in the game, knowing that Alabama will be vulnerable to either late passes to Tshiebwe or scores off of offensive rebounds. Alabama likely misses Herb Jones’ defensive ability, both on ball and as a help defender, as they really don’t have any wings who are as versatile as he was. This magnifies the interior defense problems as they struggle to contain ballhandlers, and have to rotate out of position to help.
Kentucky is absolutely elite in scoring at the rim, so this should be a mad matchup for Alabama given the Tide’s struggles with interior D. But Alabama just beat Baylor, who is the only team better in FG% at the rim than UK. I think UK will have more success, however, because Baylor’s strength is transition finishing at the rim while UK’s is halfcourt offense. Alabama shut down the Baylor transition game, giving up just 7 fast break shots and holding the Bears 1-4 at the rim there, but Baylor hit 71% of their halfcourt shots at the rim. I think UK will feast inside on Alabama. Alabama will mostly be able to keep up with UK’s scoring, given that the Tide’s offense is geared around drives and threes, but any cold spell from outside by Alabama will likely mean a UK run. I think the difference will be that UK will get plenty of easy baskets and will rebound the eventual Tide misses, with UK finishing off another statement win.