UK's starting frontcourt is turbocharging the offense
UK is playing very well with Tshiebwe and Brooks together up front, largely because of what their guards are doing
UK fans who tuned in online for the start of the Central Michigan game got to see something close to offensive perfection. The Cats began by hitting 11 of 12 shots and raced out to a 25-5 lead and never looked back. UK might not reach that level of offense again this season, but they have been playing at a high level on that side of the ball so far this season. Per Kenpom.com, UK ranks 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency after finishing last season just 84th in the same metric. Kentucky is scoring 123 points per 100 possessions this season, up from 112 last season. But there’s even better news!
One of the problems last season was that UK’s most played lineups weren’t very good offensively. The 3 most played UK lineups last season all were below UK’s team average in points per 100 possessions. But this season, UK’s most played lineup is one of their best offensively. In fact, of UK’s 7 most played lineups this season 7 are scoring more points per 100 possessions than the overall team average:
There’s a common thread that runs through most of UK’s strongest offensive lineups this season: Oscar Tshiebwe and Keion Brooks together in the frontcourt. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I’ll explain how this frontcourt duo is powering UK’s offense.
The numbers are staggering
The Oscar/Keion frontcourt is clearly turbocharging UK’s offense. UK’s points scored per 100 possessions fall off whenever this duo is split up:
With Keion and Oscar, UK scores 143 pts/100 possessions and is +97 in 140 possessions
With Oscar but no Keion, UK scores 125 pts/100 possessions and is +65 in 128 possessions
Without Oscar in, UK falls apart on offense. They score 104 pts/100 possessions and are -11 in 123 possessions
UK goes from lousy on offense to very good with just Oscar’s impact, but the offense goes into hyperdrive when Keion and Oscar are in together. 143 points per 100 possessions is simply a ridiculous number. As a point of reference, last season Gonzaga had the #1 ranked offense in college basketball. They played 5 games against teams ranked below 300 in the KenPom rankings, the real dregs of college hoops. Gonzaga scored 133 points per 100 possessions in those games.
With Oscar and Keion in, UK has an effective FG% of 61%. The Cats hit 58% of their 2s and 48% of their 3s. Coincidentally, that 61% eFg% matches Gonzaga’s figure from last year which led the nation.
With Oscar and no Keion, this drops to 53% eFG%, with 55% on 2s but 52% on 3s. Pretty good, but not amazing.
Without Oscar, it’s ugly. The eFG% is 42% on 43% from 2 and 26% from 3.
So what’s happening here exactly?
The frontcourt is making the guards better
The offensive boost is coming from Oscar or Keion scoring more effectively. Both are a little better when they play together, but not dramatically so. Oscar has an effective Fg% of 68% when playing alongside Keion, and 64% without. However, he takes just 19% of the team’s shots when playing with Keion and 26% when Keion sits, so the impact on the offense from Oscar himself is almost none.
Keion has an eFG% of 50% when playing with Oscar and 45% without him, and takes about a quarter of the team’s shots. If everything else was equal, that would change the team’s shooting but about 1%. That’s not where the impact is coming from.
The real boost to the offense is that UK’s perimeter players are much more effective when playing alongside the Oscar/Keion duo. Specifically, the differenceis what Sahvir Wheeler, TyTy Washington, and Kellan Grady do when they play alongside Tshiebwe and Brooks:
Wheeler has an eFG% of 65% with Oscar and Keion, including 91% at the rim
His eFG% is 44% with Oscar/no Keion, and 25% with no Oscar
Washington has an eFG% of 67% with Oscar and Keion
His eFG% is 54% with Oscar/no Keion and 42% without Oscar
Grady has an eFG% of 92%(!) with Oscar and Keion
His eFG% is 45% with Oscar/no Keion, and 54% without Oscar
The key appears to be improved driving lanes and spacing when playing with 4 players on the perimeter. Keion Brooks may only be hitting 25% of his threes, but his willingness to shoot threes keeps defenses honest. 12 of his 68 shots this season have been threes, compared to just 3 of 37 for Damion Collins and Jacob Toppin. You can see this effect when watching film of Brooks’ minutes, as his defenders stick with him on the perimeter frequently while they largely sag off of Collins or Toppin. This limits the help on drives by Wheeler, especially when running pick and roll with Tshiebwe.
This shows up in the data. Wheeler takes 48% of his shots at the rim when playing alongside Oscar & Keion, but 32% when Oscar is out of the game. Washington takes 27% of his shots at the rim alongside Oscar & Keion, but 14% when playing in any other lineup. As these two are able to drive more often, Grady is more likely to get open perimeter looks. He has hit 6 of 7 three point attempts when playing with Oscar & Keion, but just 6 of 19 with other lineups.
Can UK find other ways to play with 4 on the perimeter?
John Calipari talked before the season about playing more often with 4 players on the perimeter, and he certainly has done that when Brooks plays. The 2022 recruiting class seems primed to play this way as well, with versatile forward Chris Livington possibly playing as a stretch 4. But to really maximize their potential this season, UK needs to find other ways to play with 4 willing shooters.
Damion Collins and Jacob Toppin both seem more suited to play the 5 in this type of offense, as they are reluctant to shoot from the outside and won’t be guarded out there. However, UK does have 2 other options who might be able to play some minutes at the 4, offer some shooting, and hold up OK as rebounders and defenders.
Bryce Hopkins is listed at 6’6”, 220 pounds, which is 1 inch shorter and 10 pounds heavier than Brooks. 9 of Hopkins’ 25 shots this season have come from three, and he’s hit 3 of 9 from deep. His rebound rates are similar to Brooks, Toppin, and Collins as well. UK has only played 17 possessions with him at the 4 alongside Oscar, but that could be a pairing that can replicate some of what Oscar & Keion can do.
Dontaie Allen is another interesting option. He clearly is willing to shoot from the outside, as over 2/3 of his shots come from deep. Allen actually has the second highest defensive rebound rate on the entire team this season, and a block rate that is just behind Brooks and ahead of Toppin. At 6’6”, 205 pounds Allen is not much smaller than Brooks and may be able to offer some spot minute as a stretch 4.
UK is playing very well right now, but still has room to improve. The non-Tshiebwe minutes have been pretty bad, but UK doesn’t have anyone else who can replicate what Oscar does. The Oscar & Keion lineups are scoring at ridiculous rates, but UK may be able to replicate this magic by using more 4-out lineups when Brooks sits. The Wildcats clearly have something special when surrounding Oscar Tshiebwe with 4 players with perimeter skills, and could get to another level by committing to that style more completely.