UK's halfcourt offense is fully offensive
The Wildcats defended well enough to win against Louisville, but the offense is holding Kentucky back this season. I peel back the layers to identify just where these Cats are coming up short.
Kentucky came up just short in their bid to upset Louisville in the annual rivalry game, and the story of the game was more of the usual Jekyll and Hyde style of play for UK. This time it wasn’t a tale of two halves; UK lost the first half by one point and second half by two points. Rather, it was a tale of two ends of the court. If two people each only watch half of the possessions, they’d both end up surprised that Kentucky lost a close game, but probably for different reasons.
Kentucky held Louisville to their second lowest per-possession offensive output of the season. Kentucky put up a strong game in all four key defensive factors: eFg% allowed (48%), turnover rate forced (20%), defensive rebounding rate (75%), and free throw rate allowed (29 FTA per 100 FGA). Among Louisville opponents, only Wisconsin outperformed Kentucky in more than 2 of these defensive factors…and the Badgers beat Louisville by 37 points. It was also Kentucky’s most well-rounded defensive game this season, as UK had not had a game where they were better in more than 2 defensive factors than they were in this game. Anyone who was looking for Kentucky to play their best game against their rival would have largely gotten it on the defensive end, and probably would have expected Kentucky to get a win,
On the other end of the court, a casual observer would wonder how Kentucky would avoid getting blown out. For the 6th straight game Kentucky failed to score 1 point per possession. The Cats shot a season low 37% on 2 pointers, and had their 5th game hitting less than 30% of their 3 pointers. They turned the ball over on 17% of their possessions, the 3rd highest rate for any Louisville opponent. The only two Louisville opponents who turned it over more often (WKU and Pitt) each shot much better than UK and still lost by a combined 31 points. Seton Hall shot poorly against Louisville and kept the game close, but the Pirates turned the ball over on only 13% of their possessions and hit 20 free throws against UofL compared to UK’s 14.
A solid defensive game and a subpar offensive game combined to give Kentucky a close loss. There are some positives to take away from the game: Davion Mintz and Devin Askew worked hard on defense to disrupt Louisville’s guards, Jacob Toppin and Lance Ware gave UK solid minutes off the bench, and Isaiah Jackson continues to be a defensive disruptor. However, these positives won’t be enough to help UK recover this season unless the Cats address their major deficiencies on offense. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I take an indepth look at UK’s offensive struggles, put them in context, and try to identify some possible fixes.
Historically bad UK offense
The depths to which UK has sunk on offense are nearly unfathomable. Synergy rates Kentucky in the 8th percentile on offense nationally using points per possession. KenPom is more forgiving, ranking Kentucky 81st in offensive efficiency after adjusting for strength of opponents. 81st may not sound disastrous until you realize that it is easily the worst ranking Kentucky has had in offensive efficiency under Calipari. The 2012-13 team was second worst, and they finished 38th! The only offensive statistic KenPom tracks where UK is even in the top 100 nationally is offensive rebounding rate, where the Cats are 28th.
Kentucky is a stunning 319th in 3 point shooting. Kentucky fans who frequently lament the Cats’ poor shooting may think this is par for the course, but UK has never been worse than 218th under Calipari. They were 214th in 2010 and 218th in 2014, and ever other year UK has at least been in the top half of D-1 teams in outside shooting. The Cats have only been in the top 100 3 times (2016, 2012, 2011), but they’ve usually finished between 100th and 150th and been fine.
Kentucky is also historically bad so far at drawing free throws, at least by their standards. The Cats are taking 33.7 FTA per 100 FGA this season, the lowest amount in Calipari’s tenure. They are converting 66% of their free throws, the 2nd worst rate under Calipari.
This is the first time under John Calipari that free throws and 3 pointers each account for less than 20% of UK’s scoring. The horrendous drop in outside shooting and free throws is laying bare a fact about Kentucky’s offense that has long been overlooked: the Wildcats have been pretty bad at creating shots near the basket for a long time. When you don’t even have average 3 point shooting, your offense becomes, well, offensive to watch.
A history of trouble getting to the rim
Hoop-math.com is a great resource for college basketball fans who are into data and analytics. They track the percentage of a team’s shots that come in the paint, from three, and as 2 point jumpers. Here are Kentucky’s rankings over the past several years in the percentage of shots coming at the rim:
2021: 285th
2020: 249th
2019: 245th
2018: 164th
2017: 121st
2016: 264th
2015: 219th
2014: 197th
2013: 66th
2012: 129th
Over the last decade, Kentucky has largely been in the bottom half of D-1 teams in their ability to get shots at the rim. This despite the fact that Kentucky is perennially one of the most athletic, long, and talented teams in the country.
There are three things that make this even worse than you’d think:
1) Kentucky is ALWAYS a good offensive rebounding team, which generates shots at the rim
2) Kentucky is usually pretty good at generating shots in transition, which in turn generates more shots at the rim; UK has never been worse then 195th in the past decade and 5 times has been in the top 100
You could exclude putback shots and transition shots to focus only on how good a team is at generating shots at the rim in halfcourt offense. Kentucky is even worse when you look at this metric, ranking 305th out of 335 teams so far this season!
3) Kentucky has frequently been very good at converting shots near the rim, so they are bad at getting the shots that are the best way for them to score. Here are UK’s ranks over the same time in FG% on shots at the rim:
2021: 159th
2020: 11th
2019: 12th
2018: 27th
2017: 25th
2016: 14th
2015: 4th
2014: 30th
2013: 6th
2012: 3rd
You’re reading that right, Kentucky has been 30th or better every season in FG% at the rim since 2012, until this one. Over that same time, Kentucky has never been better than 66th in the percentage of their shots coming at the rim, and worse than 200th 5 times.
So, Kentucky’s offense has been excellent at scoring on shots near the rim but has been below average at generating those shots. When the Wildcats could generate a decent chunk of offense at the free throw line or from three, they could put together a top-20 offense even with these deficiencies at getting to the rim. Now that the free throws and threes have dried up, they don’t have any reliable sources of offense.
Bad shot selection, and getting worse lately
You may think that “at the rim” is a bit of a dubious way to define shots. A hook shot in the post probably isn’t at the rim, but it’s a close shot. A lot of players are very good at floaters, and those aren’t “at the rim”. If Kentucky takes a lot of shots in the paint but not quite at the rim, maybe that’s good enough?
But that isn’t happening. In halfcourt offense this season (excluding putbacks), Kentucky takes 23% of their shots at the rim, and another 5% in the paint but away from the rim, for 28% total. That’s their least common shooting area, with 42% of UK’s shots coming in the midrange outside the paint and 30% coming beyond the three point line.
At the same time, Kentucky scores more points per shot in the paint than anywhere else. Each paint shot is worth 1.11 points per shot (pps) for the Cats, with midrange shots worth 0.67 and threes worth 0.72.
Over the last 3 games it’s even worse. Against Notre Dame, UNC, and Louisville, Kentucky took just 18% of their halfcourt offense shots in the paint. They have taken 49% from midrange and 33% from three. Again, the paint shots are highest value, with UK getting 1.48 pps in the paint, 0.51 in midrange, and 0.69 from three. Just to make it clear, UK is taking more of their shots from the areas where they are least effective at scoring points.
The problem is even further magnified when looking at the Kentucky players with the most length and athleticism. Brandon Boston, Terrence Clarke, Isaiah Jackson, and Olivier Sarr all have excellent length and height for their position. You’d expect they would do a ton of damage in the paint. However, in the last 3 games these 4 have taken only 17% of their shots in the paint compared to 52% from midrange and 30% from three. That’s right…4 players 6’7” or taller have taken more than 80% of their shots outside the paint. They are scoring 1.45 pps on their rare shots in the paint, compared to 0.55 in midrange and 0.48 from three.
Compare this to Devin Askew and Davion Mintz. The two shortest rotation players for UK are 6’3”, but they taken 19% of their shots in the paint, 23% from midrange, and 58% from three. They have not missed on 5 shots in the paint over the last 3 games, and are scoring 2.00 pps in the paint and 1.00 from three….far more effective offense than their more sizeable teammates.
What’s the answer?
I went back and watched most of Kentucky’s offensive possessions over the past 3 games to try to identify any possible fixes. First, let me say that I needed a stiff drink afterwards. Second, there are definitely some common factors at play.
There are a lot of things going on to hamper the offense. Kentucky doesn’t feed the post frequently, but post-ups just aren’t a productive source of offense. The Ringer had a great article on this trend in the NBA, and it’s true in college. Post-ups are virtually always contested shots, and college teams frequently send double teams. 46 college teams generate more than 1 point per possession on post-ups this season, per Synergy; this includes shots coming immediately off of a pass out of the post. By comparison, 85 teams have generated more than 1 point per possession on spot-up shots, 147 are >1 ppp on plays by a roll man in the pick and roll, and a stunning 271 teams have generated more than 1 point per possession on cuts.
Kentucky just doesn’t have enough space to work some of these more complex actions on offense. UK can generate good looks when they rotate the ball to the weakside quickly, opening up jumpers or one-on-one driving opportunities that create offense effectively. However, Kentucky just doesn’t move the ball to the weak side well enough. There are almost no skip passes, so the defense has time to rotate as the ball moves the two or three steps from the strong side to the weak side. There’s also almost no space for rolling to the baskets or cuts due to two factors. First, Kentucky frequently has two players in the post area, once on each side of the lane. Even when one big comes out to set a pick, the other lingers with his defender around the basket. Second, many of Kentucky’s players get no respect when they are beyond the three point line. Terrence Clarke in particular is flagrantly ignored and left open. When a Wildcat tries a foray to the basket, help defenders are plentiful.
Something that isn’t clear to me is why there are often 1-2 players in the post on offense who aren’t actually posting up or touching the ball. I suppose they are in position for offensive rebounds, but they are making it near impossible for other players to get shots in the paint.
Where Kentucky could maybe open up some offense is by attacking and distributing more from midrange. Most of Kentucky’s on-ball actions occur outside the three point line. That means the ballhandler has some space and time to beat their defender, and theoretically has more time to find a teammate if help defenders leave someone open. But this also increases the length of the pass to the teammate, and most of these are getting picked off this season. I did notice that Terrence Clarke may be more effective when attacking from midrange and passing to post players or spot-up shooters when attracting help. Clarke is a dynamic athlete but has not demonstrated good passing vision; having him work from the high post might help him either get to the basket quicker or find UK’s big men for quick dump-off passes when help comes.
Kentucky also needs to make a decision on playing Isaiah Jackson and Olivier Sarr together. Sarr has had a nice touch from midrange this season, although he didn’t have a history of doing so at Wake Forest, and Isaiah Jackson is largely only a threat right around the basket. Having both in the game destroys the team’s spacing and clogs driving lanes. Jacob Toppin and Lance Ware have the same problem. Maybe a healthy Keion Brooks has developed a spot-up game, but the best option for Kentucky to get some offensive flow is probably playing 4 out with 4 guards/wings. Not only will this help create some space for driving lanes, but it also could open up some backside cuts for Boston, Clarke, and possibly Cam’ron Fletcher to create shots in the paint.
Kentucky has largely run offensive sets with 2 big under John Calipari. The Wildcats have historically been good enough at hitting threes and drawing free throws that the inability to get shots around the basket hasn’t been an issue. This season, Kentucky is struggling to hit outside jumpers and draw free throws. The offense needs to be overhauled to create better spacing for the type of movement that can create good shots in the paint. Until that happens, Kentucky will have a lot of strong defensive efforts wasted due to a complete lack of halfcourt offense.