UK lands another shooter, but how will the pieces fit?

UK landed a sharpshooting transfer in C.J. Fredrick, but still needs at least one more playmaker to complete the puzzle

Kentucky has really used the transfer portal to remake their roster, with former Iowa Hawkeye CJ Fredrick committing to Kentucky this week. He’s the 3rd impact transfer this offseason to commit to UK, along with Kellan Grady and Oscar Tshiebwe, and they’re not done yet. I wrote about Grady and Tshiebwe in my last article, and now I want to look at what CJ Fredrick brings to the team. More importantly, what is remaining for Kentucky as they look to finalize next season’s roster?

CJ Fredrick can make UK’s offense work

Every UK fan who has heard of CJ Fredrick by now knows that he is an absolutely elite shooter. He has hit 47% of his threes in his career, and 43% of his 2 point jumpers. He has taken a pretty low volume of shots, as KenPom.com lists him as taking 15-17% of Iowa’s shots when he was on the court (obviously 20% is average since there are 5 players). However, he does tend to chip in nicely as a secondary playmaker. He assists on about 15% of his teammates made baskets, which is on par with what Terrence Clarke and Keion Brooks did last season. However, Fredrick is also a very low turnover player; he turned the ball over less than half as often as either Clarke or Brooks did per 100 possessions last season.

The combination of elite shooting and some playmaking chops should make Kentucky’s offense work much better next season, as he will create space for teammates to operate and can get them the ball in useful spots. Per data from EvanMiya.com, Fredrick has consistently made a huge positive impact on his team’s offense, as Iowa put up their best scoring per possession when Fredrick was in each of the last two seasons. EvanMiya.com also uses their own formula to rate players according to their on-court impact; Fredrick ranked 18th in offensive on-court impact in 2021 and 23rd in 2020 among all D-1 players. All of the evidence suggests that Fredrick will contribute skills that make Kentucky’s offense much, much better next season.

Fredrick isn’t likely to have major impacts in other areas, however. He has been a poor rebounder, and he isn’t as good of a free throw shooter as you’d expect given his outside shooting prowess. Fredrick doesn’t take many shots at the rim, and he was a poor finisher there last year (although he did much better as a freshman). Most defensive metrics (defensive box plus/minus, Synergy data) paint him as a decent defender, but he certainly won’t collect many steals or blocks. He probably won’t be a sieve on defense but also not a stopper there.

Fredrick’s value is going to come from his stellar shooting and his complementary playmaking, and that will be tremendously useful. He won’t be a major liability in other areas, so I expect UK’s coaching staff is very excited to have his skills on the roster.

UK’s offense should be WAY better next year

As Kentucky has transformed the roster this offseason they have assembled some pieces that can work together in ways that Kentucky isn’t necessarily used to.

The first and most obvious area is that the outside shooting has improved drastically. When UK had an elite three point threat in Doron Lamb in 2011 and 2012, the Wildcats ranked 9th (2011) and 37th (2012) nationally in 3 point field goal percentage. They ranked 74th with Jamal Murray and Tyler Ulis, but have never been better than 100th otherwise. I’d expect them to rank somewhere around the top 50 next season unless something goes really wrong.

I’d also expect next year’s Kentucky team to drastically increase the percentage of shots taken from three. Last season’s UK team took 32.2% of their shots from deep, which is actually the second highest rate under Calipari, although it ranked only 292nd in the nation. NCAA teams take vastly more shots from deep than they did 5, 10, or 15 years ago, and I think Kentucky will finally co-opt that trend. KenPom has data since 1997 and the program high for percentage of shots from three was 37.5% in 2006, which ranked 68th that season; that number would have been 180th last season. With the shooters UK looks to have next season between Fredrick, Grady, and Dontaie Allen, UK should take between 35-40% from deep at least.

Teams who ranked between 20th and 50th in 3pt% last year and took 35% or more of their shots from deep included Michigan, Oregon, BYU, and Florida State. All of these teams were in the top 25 in offensive efficiency per KenPom. UK was 84th last season, so there should be significant improvement next season.

The pieces fit together nicely, but one major piece is still missing

UK’s three transfers each bring some impressive complementary skills. As I wrote about in my last article, Kellan Grady was an incredibly efficient scorer from everywhere on the court as well as a solid secondary playmaker. Oscar Tshiebwe is probably the best offensive rebounder in the country. CJ Fredrick is an elite shooter with some complementary playmaking.

One interesting area where UK could tweak their approach is how they use Tshiebwe’s offensive rebounding, as well as the underrated board work of Keion Brooks (assuming he returns). Kentucky, like most teams, tend to look to score off of putbacks on offensive rebounds. Among UK’s 300 offensive boards last season, they scored a putback on 99 of them (33%). However, Alabama added an interesting wrinkle last season where they looked to kick out offensive rebounds for open threes. Of Alabama’s 408 offensive rebounds, only 106 resulted in a putback (26%). Alabama didn’t shoot poorly on putbacks; per hoop-math.com, they hit 63%. UK was only slightly better at 64.2%. But whereas UK attempted a putback on over half of their offensive rebounds (154 of 300), Alabama attempted a putback on only 41% (168 of 408). Instead, Alabama frequently used offensive boards to create open threes. Alabama’s best offensive rebounders were Juwan Gary and Jordan Bruner; 80% of Gary’s assists were on threes and 69% of Bruner’s. For comparison, Olivier Sarr led UK with 50% of his assists resulting in threes. Alabama used strong offensive rebounding to create more open threes, and UK has a chance to do the same thing with the combo of Tshiebwe, Grady, and Fredrick.

In Grady, Fredrick, and even Brooks (if he returns), UK has a number of players who can serve as secondary playmakers. However, there is nobody currently on the roster for next season who can be a primary playmaker. Kentucky will need at least 1 player who can be the dominant ballhandler and playmaker, and preferably two. UK has had success with different approaches, using 1 clear lead ballhandler in 2011, 2012, 2016, 2018, and 2019 while preferring dual ballhandler roles in 2010, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2020, and 2021. UK has some potential options in the mix, so let’s see how they might fit the bill.

Option #1: Davion Mintz returns

Mintz has proven to be a good outside shooter (38% last year, 36% for his career). Mintz can create his own look from three, as 29% of his threes were unassisted. No Wildcats in the last decade has hit 35% or more from three with such a high percentage of unassisted threes. Mintz isn’t a high usage player, so he can defer to others; he’s taken 20% of his team’s shots when on the court pretty consistently. Mintz doesn’t get to the rim very effectively (19% of his shots there), and his playmaking hasn’t been quite what you’d want from a dominant ballhandler. He has assisted on 20% of his teammates makes in his last 2 college seasons; a dominant lead guard will be closer to 30%. Mintz has generally kept the turnovers in check, but he doesn’t really bring the dynamic playmaking UK might need to complement their shooters next season. He’d be a strong veteran presence and a terrific backcourt scorer, but probably a better fit as a combo guard than as a primary playmaker.

Option #2: Marcus Carr transfers

Carr is more accomplished as a passer, assisting on 34% of his teammates makes in his career. He also has put up a strong 2:1 assist to turnover ratio, so he doesn’t make a ton of mistakes. However, Carr is a very high usage player (26% for his career, 28% last season) with below average effiency (46% effective FG%). He’s only about a 33% shooter from deep, and he doesn’t get to the rim a ton (26% of his shots there). He put up strong scoring stats last year mostly due to volume, and he won’t get that kind of volume at Kentucky. The best hope is that he gets more efficient with lower usage, as he takes fewer tough shots, but he’ll need to dial it back a lot since UK will have many more efficient options. A couple positives are his strenght on free throws (draws a lot and hits 80%) and his promising defensive metrics (box plusminus and Synergy paint him as above average).

Option #3: TyTy Washington signs

Washington obviously has no college data to go on, but his high school scouting report describes him as most accomplished at driving and passing. Washington has hit 41% of his threes, although high school and grassroots stats aren’t worth all that much to be quite honest. From what you can find online, Washington does seem to have a knack for pure point guard play and is probably the most skilled of these options so far, although he’ll likely have a rougher adjustment given his lack of college experience.

Other Options: Nothing super promising

Sahvir Wheeler is a name that has been linked to UK, but I would rank him well behind these other 3 due to his inefficient scoring as well as his lack of size. At 5’10”, Wheeler is 4 to 5 inches smaller than the options listed above and would not fit Calipari’s preference for point guards with size and length.

There could be other players still to enter the transfer portal, although I don’t even want to really speculate on who might come available. To be an improvement on the three listed above, UK would need to land a borderline NBA prospect who has earned individual awards in a major conference. There are a handful of players who fit that criteria and aren’t surefire NBA draft prospects, but it seems like a reach that UK would land one of them if they miss on the options above.

Among the options I listed, I think UK needs to land either Carr or Washington if they are going to be a title contender next season. Both of them have more dynamic playmaking ability (or the promise of it) than Mintz, and UK really needs a penetrator and creator to take advantage of their newfound shooting. However, just landing one of the two will put a lot of pressure on that player to handle heavy minutes without a reliable backup. Ideally, UK lands:

• Carr OR Washington

  AND

• Mintz

This would allow UK to have a true lead ballhandler and creator, with Mintz pitching in at backup point guard as well. Grady and Fredrick would fill out the guard rotation with Dontaie Allen playing on the wing as well. With that type of backcourt rotation, Kentucky is top-10 and borderline top-5 next season. Without it, Kentucky may find themselves lacking a little bit of creativity that could unlock the full potential of their roster.