This Week In The Transfer Portal
I'll be providing regular updates on interesting movement in the transfer portal, and some analysis on potential UK targets
Welcome to a new series I’ll be doing this offseason around the NCAA basketball transfer portal. With an unprecedented amount of players already in the portal and more sure to come, transfers will have a bigger impact than ever on college basketball. I’m getting my transfer portal info from VerbalCommits.com, and they have archives of prior years as well. I also recommend Bart Torvik’s site for advanced stats on transfers. With that covered, let’s get started.
Total Players in Portal as of 2pm Eastern, March 27th: 940
Total Players Committed to New School: 132
Total Programs With Players in Portal: 311
Programs with most players in portal: Tennessee-Martin (15), Jacksonville (10); in major conferences, Penn State & Indiana (7)
323 new players have entered the portal between March 21 and March 27th so far, so there’s a lot going on. Who are some of the notable new entrants?
What’s new and interesting in the portal?
Mass Exoduses: Several notable programs have lost several players this week. Washington (5), Indiana (4) and UNLV (4) all have had a number of players dip their toes in the portal. The Huskies’ are set to lose their 3rd and 4th leading scorers (Marcus Tsohonis and Erik Stevenson) plus 2 4-star sophomores (Raequan Battle and J’raan Brooks). Indiana looks poised to lose their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th leading scorers (Armaan Franklin, Aljami Durham, Race Thompson) in addition to 5 star freshman PG Kristian Lander. UNLV’s losses are mostly bench players, but the attrition still makes it challenging for next season.
Former Prep Standouts: There are a total of 34 players in the portal who are freshmen or sophomores and were 4 or 5 star recruits coming out of high school. 23 of them entered the portal in the last week. Some of the notable new entrants include Will Baker (#32 in class of 2019, leaving Texas for Nevada), Casey Morsell (#58 in class of 2019, leaving Virginia), Donovan Williams (#68 in class of 2019, leaving Texas), Walker Kessler (#18 in class of 2020, leaving UNC), Jaemyn Brakefield (#33 in class of 2020, leaving Duke), and Kristian Lander (#81 in class of 2020, leaving Indiana)
Some established scorers or high-major contributors have entered this week:
Tanner Groves, Eastern Washington (6’9” Jr F, 16.5ppg)
Timmy Allen, Utah (6’6” Jr F, 16.8ppg)
Nate Reuvers, Wisconsin (6’11” Sr F, 8.5ppg)
Stanley Umude, South Dakota (6’6” Sr G, 21.5ppg)
Jordan Miller, George Mason (6’6” Jr G, 15.8ppg)
Jacob Young, Rutgers (6’2” Sr G, 14.5ppg)
Elijah Oyaniji, Miami (6’5” Sr G, 11.1ppg)
Jemarl Baker, Arizona (6’4” Jr G, 12ppg)
Jalen Cone, Virginia Tech (5’10” So G, 9.2ppg)
Noah Locke, Florida (6’3” Jr G, 10.5ppg)
Wendell Green, Eastern Kentucky (5’11” Fr G, 15.8ppg)
Greg Parham, VMI (6’4” Sr G, 18.4ppg)
Cameron Shelton, Northern Arizona (6’2” Jr G, 20.2ppg)
Ty Groce, Eastern Michigan (6’8” Sr F, 15.2ppg)
Cameron Johnson, Stephen F Austin (6’4” Sr G, 15.3ppg)
Mike Nuga, Kent State (6’2” Sr G, 17.8ppg)
Jarrod West, Marshall (5’11” Sr G, 12.2ppg)
Teddy Allen, Nebraska (6’5” Jr F, 16.4ppg)
Xavier Pinson, Missouri (6’2” Jr G, 14ppg)
Armaan Franklin, Indiana (6’4” So G, 11.6ppg)
Zach Nutall, Sam Houston State (6’3” Jr G, 18.9ppg)
Kellan Grady, Davidson (6’5” Sr G, 17.3ppg)
Some Interesting Names
In each article I’ll pick a couple notable players in the portal and do a deeper dive on their stats and performances at their prior school. Today we’ll start with a player linked to UK.
Justin Powell: The rumor mill has Powell, a 6’6” freshman guard most recently with Auburn, being the most likely transfer to land at Kentucky. Powell would help shore up Kentucky’s wing rotation next season, but what does his abbreviated freshman season at Auburn tell us about his strengths and weaknesses?
Powell played in only 10 games but showed some promise. He averaged 11.7 pts, 6.1 reb, and 5.7 ast in just under 28 minutes per game. Per BartTorvik.com, Powell took more than half of his shots from three and took 2 free throws for every 5 field goals. With this frequency from three and the line, he basically profiles as a playmaking Dontaie Allen, which is a really useful player. Powell’s effective FG% of 54.2% would have been the 2nd highest on UK last year behind Allen, so he’d definitely give a boost to the offense. Synergy also rated Powell in the 75th percentile on defense (albeit in a limited sample of 10 games), rating him especially well defending the pick and roll (92nd percentile). The biggest concern is that he was much worse on offense against quality opposition; he had a strong game against Memphis but was unexceptional against Gonzaga and Arkansas. I think he deserves a bit of a pass given his inexperience, and he should be a strong contributor if he lands at Kentucky.
Mason Faulkner: Faulkner is a Kentucky native (Glasgow, KY) and Kentucky has contacted his family about a possible transfer. Faulkner played his first two years at Northern Kentucky, then 2 more at Western Carolina where he blossomed; he would have 1 more year remaining. Over his two seasons at Western Carolina he averaged 17.4pts and 5.5 assists per game, and dominated the ball with a near 28% usage rate. Per hoop-math.com, Faulkner took 48% of his shots at the rim, easily more than any Kentucky guard while converting at an acceptable 54%. He also shot well from midrange and three, so he’d bring some shotmaking from all over the court.
I have 2 main concerns about Faulkner’s fit with Kentucky. First, he has struggled mightily in his career against quality opposition. At Western Carolina he played 5 games against “A” level competition per KenPom (effectively top-50 teams). In those 5 games, he hit 19-57 shots (33%) and had 4.2 turnovers per games. He did put up 5.6 assists in these games, including 7 against Florida State in Nov 2019, but I’m not sure he’s quite ready to play top competition night in and night out. Additionally, Faulker may not fit the defensive profile UK looks for in their guards. He’s only listed at 6’1”, and was graded as a below average defender by BartTorvik.com as well as Synergy. I’m not sure that he is enough of an upgrade for Kentucky, honestly.
Mike Nuga: A player I haven’t seen mentioned for Kentucky but who I think would be a great fit is Mike Nuga. Nuga was a senior on Kent State last year after a season at Portland State in 2019 and junior college prior to that. He only played 12 games due to a knee injury in February, but if he’s healthy he could be an impact player. Per hoop-math.com he took all but 1 shot at the rim or from three last season, and was excellent in both areas. He converted 64% at the rim and 39% from 3; that equates to Isaiah Jackson-level at the rim and Davion Mintz-level from three. Per BartTorvik.com he had a solid steal rate (2.0%, good for 3rd on UK last year) and a low turnover rate (11.7%). Put together, this indicates that he was on another level from his MAC competition and could be impactful in a bigger conference.
The biggest indicator that he could be an impact player for Kentucky to me is that his offensive performances were consistent regardless of opponent. Bart Torvik has Nuga’s offensive rating at 125 last season, and he never dipped below 105 in any game. For comparison, Davion Mintz had an offensive rating of 106 last season and was below 100 in 13 games. Nuga put up 20 points on 8-18 shooting against Virginia and 37 points on 13-30 in 2 games against a solid Toledo team. He is only 6’2”, but clearly has enough length to bother shooters given that he graded out in the 74th percentile defending spot-up shooters per Synergy. If I had to pick one guard to put on Kentucky next season from the current portal, it’s probably Mike Nuga.
I hope you enjoyed this look into the transfer portal. I’ll write these regularly (weekly, maybe more often as warranted) and focus on a couple new players of interest each time. If you have any particular players you’d like me to focus on, reach out on Twitter (@HoopsInsight) or by email (sean@hoopsinsight.com). Thanks!