The Battle for the Bluegrass Preview
Kentucky and Louisville come into their annual grudge match with very different early-season returns. What should we expect from each team?
It’s another edition of the Battle for the Bluegrass. Kentucky comes in with their season in peril, at 1-5 with reports of inner turmoil. Louisville is 5-1, but had a significant break due to COVID-19 in the program and it’s still unclear how that is affecting them.
This is going to be one of my longer articles as I analyze both Louisville and Kentucky…if you’re more the type who likes dessert before dinner, here are the highlights:
The two teams have had similar weaknesses with turnovers (for and against), as well as defending the rim…whichever team does better in these areas will probably win
Kentucky has alternated between very good stretches of play and horrible stretches, usually within the same game; Louisville has been steadier and avoids prolonged poor stretches in games
An underappreciated strength from Kentucky is the on-ball defense of Devin Askew and Davion Mintz; they may be able to stymie Louisville’s David Johnson and Carlik Jones, but Kentucky will need to drastically improve to score enough to win this game
With that said, let’s get knee-deep into each team!
Key Players
Kentucky
Brandon Boston: Freshman wing came in with pedigree as scoring dynamo but has struggled this season; Most 3PA on team (29) but has made only 5 (17%); can get lost on defense and vulnerable to cuts; solid rebounder despite thin frame
Terrence Clarke: Dynamic and athletic wing can create his own shot off dribble; Strong floater game (8-10 so far) and excellent finisher at rim (9-12) but doesn’t get to rim often enough; Capable defender who uses athleticism and length to challenge shots
Devin Askew: Struggled mightily with turnovers and was benched, but has settled down last 3 games; Most dynamic distributor in halfcourt on team; struggles to finish at rim; absolute bulldog on defense who can contain dribble penetration
Davion Mintz: Grad transfer combo guard has stepped in as starting PG; Was solid 3 point shooter at Creighton but has struggled there in halfcourt offense (2-13); pesky defender who combines with Askew to force turnovers
Isaiah Jackson: Pogo stick but rail-thin freshman big; Terrific rebounder and shotblocker (both on and off ball); little offensive game to speak of but will take midrange jumpers; has been prone to foul trouble
Olivier Sarr: Wake Forest transfer has had mixed results; settles for midrange too often, and was invisibile vs UNC (0 FGAs, 5 PF); not a rim protector and has been plagued by foul trouble
Keion Brooks: Has not played yet this season due to calf injury, but expected to be major piece; Was role player last season but offered rebounding and defensive presence; Was not a shooter last season but UK forwards tend to expand shooting range as sophomores
Louisville
Carlik Jones: Grad transfer guard has been the offensive engine for UofL; hitting 50% of his threes (7-14) but only 16% from midrange, and has taken more shots from midrange than anywhere; shortest player on either roster (6’1”) but solid rebounder; recently missed game recovering from bout with COVID-19
David Johnson: Expected to make leap into NBA lottery status as sophomore but has been uneven; excellent passer and finisher at rim but shaky shooter and prone to turnovers; uses size (6’5”) and athleticism to create steals
Samuell Williamson: Sophomore wing was McDonald’s All-American but freshman year disappointed; had 17 in season opener but got hurt in 2nd game and missed next 2; another solid rebounder from wing but turnover prone; very good mid-range shooter who plays off Jones/Johnson well
Dre Davis: Stout freshman wing has been strong inside arc (64% 2pt%) but off-target outside (28% 3pt%); Has not been good rebounder despite 6’5” 220lb frame; very good in transition
Jae’lyn Withers: Undersized (6’8” 230lb) freshman has had to be the man in the middle so far for Cards and has been pleasant surprise; Strong rebounder and post scorer (58% of shots at rim, 72% FG% there); Struggles to defend rim, as opponents have hit 65% of paint shots when he’s in (73% last 2 games)
Quinn Slazinski: Slim (6’8” 215lb) stretch big is 10-15 on twos this season but only 2-16 on threes; Good free throw shooter (86%) who should break out of cold spell from deep; not strong defensively
JJ Traynor: Least heralded member of freshman class but has been key glue guy so far; has been best shotblocker even though undersized at 6’8”, 200lbs; good finisher around rim; active defender
Team Strengths, Weaknesses and Breakdown
Kentucky
Strengths
Defensive length (can contest midrange and three point shots well, and have some shotblocking)
Offensive rebounding
Weaknesses
Turnovers (commit them and don’t force them)
Outside shooting
Defending the rim (75th in shotblocking but 291st in rim FG% allowed)
Getting shots at the rim (283rd)
The Wildcats have had a very disappointing season, going 1-5 for the first time since the 1926-27 season. They have 3 double-digit losses in 6 games, more than the last 2 total seasons combined. However, the strangest part may be how disjointed they’ve been even within games (read my article about this here). In 3 of their losses the Wildcats had a lead at halftime (Richmond, Kansas, UNC) before collapsing in the second half; they were outscored by 41 points across those 3 second halves. Against Notre Dame the Cats fell behind by 22 at the half, then clamped down and closed to within 1 point before a missed Olivier Sarr jumper sealed the loss. Kentucky can’t put together 2 consistent halves this season, so who knows which version of the Cats will show up?
During their good stretches, Kentucky has 3 clear strengths: scoring in the paint (mostly Olivier Sarr), forcing turnovers, and defending opponent shots outside the paint. During their poor stretches, Kentucky is terrible at these. The Cats are pretty consistently poor at defending the rim, they commit turnovers at a high rate, and they struggle to shoot from the outside no matter what.
In their last game against North Carolina (found here on YouTube), Kentucky held a 6 point lead with 13 minutes left, went without a made basket for 7 minutes, and still only trailed by 2 with 6 minutes left. The Wildcats couldn’t get shots in the paint and were hampered by persistent fouling, both offensive and defensive; the difference in the game was that North Carolina strung together a few made outside shots and hit more free throws. The poor offensive execution put a lot of pressure on the Wildcat defense, and their perimeter defense held up, but their big men couldn’t defend the Tar Heel bigs without fouling and gave up several key offensive rebounds to extend possessions.
Louisville
Strengths
Team defensive rebounding (84th nationally, of top 7 players 6 average 7+ reb per 40 minutes)
Finishing near basket (30th in FG% at rim)
Transition scoring (33rd in eFG% in transition)
Limiting opponent transition chances (24th in % of opp FGAs in transition)
Weaknesses
Turnovers (commit them and don’t force them)
Defending rim (278th in opp FG% at rim)
Outside shooting (279th in frequency of threes, 192nd in 3pt%)
Coming into this season the Cardinals had very little returning production from last season. They were injury-ravaged even before the season began, losing senior C Malik Williams and grad transfer wing Charles Minlend (who have yet to return), and Carlik Jones, Samuell Williamson, and Josh Nickelberry have all missed games. Their freshman have been thrust into major roles, particularly up front, but have largely held up. The freshman bigs have shown the ability to finish in the paint and rebound well, while also communicating well on defense. The offensive creation of Carlik Jones and David Johnson has put teammates in a position to succeed, and those teammates have largely come through. Louisville had a pleasantly surprising opening few games before having to shut down for 2+ weeks due to COVID-19.
The Cardinals have largely been a grind-it-out team so far, ranking 320th in tempo according to KenPom. Their defense has been their calling card, surrending less than 1 point per possession in every game except their loss to Wisconsin. The Wisconsin loss made their season appear worse than it really has been; they would likely been in the top 20 in KenPom’s ratings without that game. That game was very much an outlier. The Badgers hit 62% of their threes against Louisville (only Prairie View A&M was also above 30%), the Cards turned the ball over on 32% of their possessions (below 18% in 4 of the other 5 games), and Louisville hit just 33% of their twos (next lowest game was 46%).
In their last game against Pittsburgh (found here on YouTube), Louisville got out to a 24-9 lead before the Panthers clawed back. The game was within 5 points for most of the time from when 7:00 minutes remained in the first half until 8 minutes remained in the second. Both teams struggled to score, with most of Louisville’s offense being generated by Johnson and Jones creating off the dribble and either scoring or finding teammates. Louisville turned the ball over on 26% of their possessions on the night, but were able to maintain a lead thanks to defense that was largely mistake-free. While Louisville struggles to defend the rim, they have the athletes to guard everywhere else, and forved Pitt into a lot of tough shots. Louisville also dominated the boards, getting 79% of Pitt’s missed and 45% of their own. It wasn’t pretty, but Louisville didn’t allow Pittsburgh to ever do enough to really threaten to win.
How Each Team Can Win
Kentucky
Askew and Mintz play a ton of time together in the backcourt and largely contain the dribble penetration of Johnson and Jones. This prevents either Louisville guard from getting good shots near the rim, and Johnson turns the ball over trying to pass out of trouble leading to some Wildcat runouts. Olivier Sarr gets plenty of touches in the paint and is able to score against the smaller Cardinal front line. Isaiah Jackson stays our of foul trouble and uses his length and athleticism to harass Louisville into missing a number of shots in the paint.
Louisville
The pack-line defense is able to shut down driving lanes for Terrence Clarke and Brandon Boston, but they continue to put up contested long jumpers that are off the mark. The undersized but active Louisville big men cause problems for Olivier Sarr and Isaiah Jackson, and both turn the ball over several times. David Johnson and Carlik Jones are able to get into the lane off the dribble, and they alternate between finding open shooters, finishing in the paint, and drawing fouls on overeager UK big men coming over to help. Samuell Williamson is able to cut behind Brandon Boston repeatedly and get open for layups. For the 5th time in 6 games Kentucky has a stretch where they get outscored by at least 10 points in less than 3 minutes, and the Cards cruise to a victory.
What I Think Will Happen
You can count me among the observers baffled by Kentucky’s season so far. I’m particularly surprised that they can consistently outplay even their toughest opponents for one half, and collapse in the next. It seems like a different issue each time, but there are some core fixable issues that could take UK to another level. They are just incredibly volatile this season and I don’t know what to expect from them.
Louisville, on the other hand, has been fairly steady outside of the Wisconsin loss. I’m just as amazed by this, given all of the absences of key players. Outside of Carlik Jones, nobody on the team has really been outstanding so far, but they’ve managed to get solid contributions by 2-3 players each game…just not the same ones every time.
Watching Louisville, it’s pretty clear that their offense is predicated on David Johnson and Carlik Jones being great with the ball. Nobody else on the team has really shown the ability to create offense, and I actually think Devin Askew and Davion Mintz can do a solid job defensively on them. I just don’t know where Kentucky’s offense will come from. The best option to attack Louisville’s weaknesses is probably Olivier Sarr, but he has only 1 game this year where he took more shots in the paint than from midrange; settling for jumpers probably isn’t going to be enough.
I think Kentucky can do enough defensively to win, especially since Louisville’s bigs aren’t strong post-up threats who could attack UK at the rim. But I am not sure Kentucky can do enough offensively unless one of the following happens: Brandon Boston discovers an outside shot, Olivier Sarr gets aggressive trying to score in the paint, or Kentucky gets fast break baskets off of live ball turnovers.
It’s probably going to be an ugly game. One fan base is going to be devastated. Whichever team wins will probably use the game as a springboard and end up having a strong conference run, as both expect to add pieces returning from injury and benefit from improved cohesion through the season. Most importantly, this will remain the best rivalry in sports.