Temperature check on UK, plus Kansas thoughts
After a couple tough games, I share my thoughts on UK plus some analysis of Kansas before a major game
Enough with the injuries, amirite? I don’t know about you, dear reader, but I’ve grown tired of watching Kentucky games and seeing Wildcat players in non-vertical positions having some sort of appendage or joint inspected for damage. The degree of difficulty this season is already high enough, between the pressure of redeeming last year’s 9-16 debacle, the number of good teams in the SEC, and the preponderance of road games against the best of those conference opponents. Despite all this, the Wildcats are having a pretty impressive season.
In this edition of Hoops Insight I wanted to check in quickly and offer my latest assessment on the Cats, plus share some thoughts ahead of a headline matchup with Kansas on Saturday.
Kentucky should be considered a national title contender
At first blush it does seem a little too bold to make that declaration, but I think there’s enough evidence for me to feel comfortable making it. On December 31st, I tweeted something similar:
Here is my case, plain and simple: the Wildcats have an 8 man rotation that can beat just about anyone in the entire country. That rotation consists of Oscar Tshiebwe, TyTy Washington, Sahvir Wheeler, Kellan Grady, Keion Brooks, Jacob Toppin, Davion Mintz, and (surprise!) Lance Ware. When Kentucky plays a 5 man lineup exclusively from those 8 players, they have largely dominated this season:
Scoring 125.4 pts/100 possessions and allowing 89.8; those would rank #1 (offense) and #13 (defense) over the entire season
Adjusting for opponent quality, UK is outscoring teams by +44 points per 100 possessions; that would rank #1 in the nation
This season, Kentucky has had only 2 games where they were outscored by opponents when playing some combination of this group. Against Duke they got outscored by 1 point, and against Auburn they were outscored by 3 point. Since the Notre Dame loss, the Auburn game is the only one where this group has outscored opponents by less than 7 points. If Kentucky has their top 8 healthy and available, they can beat anyone in the country.
Even with injuries to Washington and Wheeler, UK has used lineups from this rotation in about 80% of their non-garbage time minutes in SEC play. This rotation is +96 in SEC play, and UK is -17 when playing at least one player from outside this roation. The biggest drivers of success lately have been hot outside shooting (44% for UK in SEC play with this core group) and winning the turnover battle (committing turnovers on 15% of possessions and forcing them on 20%). When this 8 man rotation plays, everyone seems to understand their roles. Grady/Mintz/Washington have taken 76 of the 86 threes UK has taken with these lineups; Brooks and Wheeler have a mere 5 each (and oddly, have hit 5 of those 10). Every Wildcat but Ware and Tshiebwe has a positive assist to turnover ratio in these lineups, and Tshiebwe and Washington have been collecting steals like a billionaire collects bitcoin.
My main concern is the recent trend of opponents having success inside the arc against UK. UK’s core rotation has allowed each of the last 4 opponents to hit 50% or better on twos after only 4 of Kentucky’s first 16 opponents reached that mark. It’s mostly midrange shooting, where UK’s last 4 opponents have hit 49% compared to 34% for the first 16 opponents. That likely will settle back into a more normal range in the mid-30’s, but it’s definitely something to watch.
Kentucky has a good shot against Kansas
Kansas is ranked in the top 10 in the polls and in most computer ratings, and they are hosting this game so it obviously is a very tough matchup. That being said, I am more optimistic about this matchup than I was about, say, Auburn, for a few reasons.
Kansas may be a bit overrated
Kansas’ ratings in most computer-generated rankings (like KenPom or Bart Torvik) are a bit inflated by infrequent blowouts. The Jayhawks beat West Virginia, Missouri, and Nevada by a combined 90 points, and all 3 are in the top half of D-1 teams. However, these were all fueled by outlier performance in forcing turnovers or horrendous opponent shooting. Kansas’ defense for the seaosn has been unremarkable, and their game-to-game performance isn’t at quite as high of a level as you’d think.
Kansas’ offense is basically two guys
Those two (Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun) are both very good, and Agbaji in particular is an All-American. However, outside of them Kansas doesn’t have any players who are especially good around the rim or from three. If UK can manage to keep one of the two relatively quiet, Kansas will probably have trouble keeping pace.
Kansas’ defense is nothing special
Per KenPom, the Jayhawks don’t rank in the top 75 in any advanced defensive statistic, although they also aren’t worse than 160th in any. Kansas plays several smaller guards who, per Synergy, have struggled to contain ballhandlers this year (Remy Martin, Dajuan Harris, Joseph Yesufu). Wheeler and Washington (if healthy) should be able to create some havoc off the dribble.
I do have two main concerns about this matchup. The first is that both Agbaji and Braun are wings with decent size who like to get to the basket. Kellan Grady has had some trouble this season containing ballhandlers, and if matched up against either I think he’ll have his hands full. Keion Brooks and Toppin should be able to do an OK job on both, but playing both of them will hurt Kentucky’s shooting. Neither Agbaji or Braun is good in midrange, so Kentucky needs to force them to put the ball on the floor but offer enough resistance so they don’t get to the rim unimpeded. That’s easier said than done.
The second concern is that David McCormack for Kansas is the only player in the nation who has a better offensive rebounding rate than Oscar Tshiebwe, and is someone UK will need to keep off the boards. Given the trouble UK had defending Auburn’s penetration while also guarding Walker Kessler, I worry that Tshiebwe will leave McCormack too often and give up putbacks.
If TyTy Washington plays, I think Kentucky makes a statement with a big road win on Saturday. If he doesn’t, UK’s going to need some hot shooting and a strong team defensive performance, but I think they can still sneak out a win. Either way, I think this is a good matchup and a chance for a major boost to UK’s resume.
Read this before the game and agreed 100% with all you said. I felt that they were about to breakout and make a statement, as the numbers suggested. I hate betting on them, but I did get 22-1 futures on the Natty and 12-1 on making the Final Four. Bet this right after the Auburn debacle. Great call!