Silver linings on a rough start
1-2 isn't where UK fans hoped they'd be, but there are several reasons to remain optimistic about the Cats.
John Calipari proclaimed the last scrimmage before UK’s season opener to be the worst he’s ever seen, and offered up the chance that UK could start the season 0-6. It was the sort of statement that gave most observers a chuckle, primarily because it seemed designed to motivate a young team. When the Wildcats opened with a blowout of Morehead State, 0-6 seemed laughable. But there’s precious little laughter now among Big Blue Nation as the Cats sit at 1-2.
That 1-2 record actually seems somewhat generous to the Cats, if that’s possible. The offense has been a disaster:
UK is hitting 19% of its three pointers, 267th in the country (side note: only 282 D-1 teams have played yet)
UK is turning the ball over on 24% of it’s possessions, 232nd in the country
UK has assisted on only 40% of made baskets, 249th in the country
Kentucky is 3-31 on threes over the last 2 games. They had a stretch over the Richmond and Kansas game where they missed 28 straight shots outside of the paint. Neither point guard (Askew or Mintz) has more assists than turnovers. Freshmen wings Brandon Boston and Terrence Clarke are a combined 0 for 19 on three pointers.
Despite this litany of struggles, there are actually some reasons for optimisim and signs of hope among the early season struggles. Today, I find some reasons for UK fans to feel good about this season.
Rebounding has helped paper over problems
To start off, Kentucky does have one overwhelming strength on offense to help offset the trouble areas: offensive rebounding. Kentucky ranks 14th in the nation in percentage of their own misses rebounded. Note that this doesn’t reflect actual totals; Kentucky would be even better there since they’ve missed so many shots. The offensive rebounding helping prop up the offense in one important way: shot volume. Kentucky has been turnover prone, which normally means they would have fewer possessions to try to score than their opponent. Fewer possessions and poor shooting is a disastrous mix. But Kentucky has snared so many offensive rebounds that they actually have actually had a few more scoring opportunities than opponents. Kentucky has 181 field goal attempts + 67 free throw attempts for 248 combined attempts, compared to 244 for their opponents.
Additionally, for as bad as Kentucky’s offense has been, their defense has actually been fairly solid. The Wildcats rank 12th in defensive efficiency per KenPom on the strength of excellent field goal percentage defense. Kentucky is 4th in percentage of opponent shots blocked, and 17th in effective FG% defense. This isn’t overly skewed by playing Morehead State, either; the Cats had 15 blocks combined against Richmond and Kansas, and held those two to a combined 41% eFG%. For as poorly as Kentucky has shot, their opponents have gone cold from deep as well; UK allows just 22% shooting on 3 pointers.
The biggest silver lining for Kentucky fans should be that there’s a history of Kentucky having rough offensive starts, but improving significantly as the season goes on. Last season, Kentucky was 13-61 from three in their first 4 games (21%). Over the rest of the season, Kentucky went 36% from deep, and had more games hitting more than 50% of their threes (7) than hitting less than 20% (6). In the 2018-19 season, Kentucky committed turnovers on 21% of their possessions across their first 9 games; that dropped to 18% over the rest of the season as they got things under control.
Additionally, UK teams under Calipari have made deep tournament runs even with some significant offensive weaknesses. That 2019 team was a tip-in away from the Final Four despite turnover issues, and the 2014 team made the title game despite ranking 151st in eFG% and 150th in turnover rate. Both of these teams made up for weaknesses by being elite at offensive rebounding and drawing free throws. This team has the offensive rebounding talent, and should be able to draw free throws due to their athleticism.
A UK tradition of rough freshman guard starts
It feels like every season Kentucky has freshman guards who get off to a rough start in one way or another. The worrying commences over whether these prospects were overrated and can lead Kentucky to greatness, but they improve through the season (as freshmen do) and end up in the NBA within a season or two.
Consider this:
Devin Booker was 1-11 from three over his first 3 games
Tyler Herro was 2-10 over his first 3
Immanuel Quickly went 2-11
Tyrese Maxey opened 3-7 in his first game, then went 3-15 over the next 3
It doesn’t seem quite so unusual that Brandon Boston and Terrence Clarke are 0-19 combined. They both need to work on their shooting consistency, but I’m pretty sure UK’s coaches are drilling that into them. I have a lot of faith that Boston in particular will become a solid shooter; per his NBAdraft.net profile Boston hit 41% of his threes during the 2018 Nike EYBL, and has been at or above 80% from the free throw line consistently in competitive settings. His shooting from outside did drop off in the 2019 EYBL, but good free throw shooting is a strong statistical predictor of future outside shooting. Clarke may not be as good of a shooter, since his profile at NBAdraft.net references sub 30% shooting from deep and sub 70% free throw shooting. Even getting to 33-34% would be enough to significantly improve UK’s offense. As a comp, Hamidou Diallo hit 33.8% of his threes for the 2017-18 season but had a brutal stretch from Jan 30 to Feb 20 where he went 1-12 over 7 games and a stretch from Nov 14 to Dec 2 where he went 2-11. Shooting slumps happen, even for NBA level athletes and potential strong shooters.
There’s also a recent trend of freshman Kentucky guards struggling with turnovers. Over the last 3 seasons:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander opened with 10 assists vs 12 turnovers in his first 3 games
Ashton Hagans had 8 assists and 7 turnovers in his first 3
Tyrese Maxey had 4 assists and 7 turnovers in his first 3
Of these 3 players, Maxey ended up with the worst assist-turnover ratio on the season at 1.5-1; SGA and Hagans ended up and 1.9-1 and 1.7-1. It seems reasonable that Devin Askew can get to similar levels as he improves through the season. Davion Mintz was at 1.8-1 at Creighton over 3 years, so he should be able to put up solid numbers here as well.
This edition of the Wildcats has had a couple of disappointing performances, but let’s kepe a couple things in mind. First, this team had a halftime lead at Kansas and only lost by 3 to the Jayhawks despite severe offensive struggles and foul trouble for Olivier Sarr. If Kentucky pulled off that win and was 2-1, the Richmond game would feel much more like an acceptable blip than a harbinger of future doom. Second, the preparation for this season was severely disrupted by COVID. Even though the freshmen were working out as much as they could, they hadn’t played in a competitive environment in many months prior to the opener. If Kentucky is still hitting 20% of their threes and turning the ball over 24% of the time 3 weeks from now, it’s going to be a very difficult season…but I suspect we’ll see enough improvement in the coming weeks to feel much better about the Cats. Who knows, maybe an 11-18 night from three point range is coming up, or a 30 point explosion by BJ Boston or Terrence Clarke to jump-start the offense. Either way, it’s likely that these Cats will eventually meet the high expectations of their fans and coaches before the season is done.