Quick thoughts on Olivier Sarr
UK finally got the news that the transfer will be eligible, but how does he compare to recent UK bigs?
UK’s roster for next season had an obvious hole in the middle until the word came in that Olivier Sarr would be eligible to play. The general reaction from the media was to bump up UK’s expectations, but I have yet to see much analysis as to what he will really bring. Most diehard UK fans know by now that Sarr put up huge numbers against Notre Dame last season, and that Sarr was a 3rd team All-ACC honoree, but that doesn’t say a lot about what might happen next year. I’m going to try to address that with some quick thoughts to put the addition of Sarr in context.
A well deserved reputation
First of all, making All-ACC Third Team is a pretty strong honor. The ACC only names 5 players per all-league team, unlike the SEC who names 2 teams of 10, so he was adjudged to have been one of the 15 best players. Some notable interior players who weren’t honored are Florida State’s Patrick Williams (a likely NBA lottery pick) and Virginia’s Jay Huff (one of the best shotblockers in the country) and NC State’s DJ Funderburk (put up 13 pts and 6 reb per game on a better team than Sarr).
Second, Sarr wasn’t just putting up empty stats on a terrible team. Yes, Wake Forest was 13-18, but Sarr was a legitimately strong offensive player. Sarr took the same number of 2 point shots as Nick Richards did last season in just slightly less time. Sarr’s effective FG% of 53% and true shooting percentage of 60% would have been the 2nd best on Kentucky’s entire team last season. Per Synergy data, Sarr was in the 90th percentile as a scorer on offense…so he is going to be able to be an offensive threat for Kentucky.
Similar to recent UK bigs
Last season, on offense Sarr:
Was graded as Very Good or Excellent on Post Ups, Cuts, Putbacks, and P&R Roll Man by Synergy; he rated in the 97th percentile as a roll man
Graded in the 2nd percentile as a spot up shooter and 9th percentile in transition, although he was used infrequently in those situations
Hit 67% of his shots at the rim and 41% of his 2 point jumpers, while taking about half of his shots in each area, per hoop-math.com (note that 2 point jumpers = any 2 pointer not at the rim, and can include hook shots, floaters, etc.)
Ranked 25th nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes at 6.6, per KenPom
On defense, Sarr:
Graded as Good or Very Good on defending Post Ups, Spot Ups, and P&R Roll Man, but not better than 71st percentile on any; he also defended only 161 possessions, fewer than either Nick Richards or EJ Montgomery last season as Wake’s opponents attacked weaker defenders
Blocked 4.5% of opponent shots, fewer than Richards or Montgomery did last season
Collected 25.8% of opponent misses when on the court; that was 38th in the country and higher than any UK player has registered under John Calipari
On offense, Sarr should be able to do a pretty solid Nick Richards impersonation. Richards was a better finisher at the rim and more athletic on cuts, but not quite as good of a post up finisher. Neither player featured much in transition or in spot ups, so Sarr should find a role in Calipari’s offense. Another recent UK big who profiles much like Sarr on offense is Bam Adebayo. While Adebayo has become more dynamic big in the NBA, he was used in post ups more than twice as often than any other play in college, and scored pretty efficiently on them. Adebayo actually wasn’t used as much as a roll man in college, but was graded in the 88th percentile scoring on these plays. Adebayo also drew fouls at a high rate, ranking 75th nationally in that stat. On offense, Sarr has demonstrated that he can excel in many of the same ways that Nick Richards and Bam Adebayo have recently.
On defense, Sarr is a bit different than recent UK bigs. Most recent Kentucky bigs are at least competent as shot blockers, while Sarr is pretty pedestrian in that area. He blocked 4.5% of opponent shots when on the court; the last UK rotation big man to record a rate that low was Dakari Johnson in 2014 as a freshman. Wake Forest had zero other rim protection last season, however, so that may have been caused by opponents challenging him less often, similar to how shutdown cornerbacks in football get few interceptions.
Where Sarr really stands out is defensive rebounding. As I mentioned before, no UK player under Calipari has put up a defensive rebound rate as high as Sarr did last season. It’s not solely a case of Sarr getting rebounds because nobody on his team could get them; Wake Forest was a respectable 90th in defensive rebound rate last season, far outpacing Kentucky’s 196th place ranking. In fact, Wake Forest’s team defensive rebound rate last season was 74.0%; only the 2019 UK team managed a better number. The low shot blocking numbers and strong defensive rebounding may be related, as going for blocked shots often takes a big man out of position for rebounds. Kentucky tends to prioritize shot blocking under Calipari and be less effective at defensive rebounding, so it’s possibly Sarr plays a different style. Still, it’s very reasonable to think that Kentucky will have one of their strongest defensive rebounding teams in recent memory with him anchoring the backline.
Shades of 2017?
When I think about how Kentucky might look with Olivier Sarr, I come to a few conclusions:
The Wildcats probably won’t be quite as strong of a shotblocking team, and will need their guards to keep ballhandlers in front of them; they probably won’t be as good at it as last season’s crew, so opponents will probably shoot better from the field
UK will probably be a much better defensive rebounding team than last season
UK’s offense will probably look a lot like it has, with Sarr being the post threat but most offense running through guards and wings
The 2017 season seems to be a reasonable comp to me. That season Kentucky actually had its weakest shotblocking team (despite the NBA rep of Bam Adebayo) but was respectable on the defenisve glass (105th nationally). Adebayo’s stats on offense were remarkably similar to Sarr’s from Wake Forest.
That 2017 Kentucky team was rated 4th nationally by KenPom, and went 1-1 on the season against eventual champ North Carolina in two thrilling games. The key that made that team great was winning the turnover battle; they had the 3rd highest rate of forcing turnovers of any Calipari team at UK and the lowest rate of committing them. With Sarr plugged in to the typical Kentucky big man role, it’s up to the young guards and wings to determine the ceiling for this edition of the Wildcats.