Quick notes on UK-Tennessee

Some thoughts before a major matchup

This is the first of a series of huge Saturday matchups for Kentucky where the Wildcats can play themselves into consideration for one of the top 8 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. I wanted to share some thoughts on the matchup, which I also shared in some radio appearances and a segment on the Locked On Kentucky podcast.

First, a moment of silence in remembrance of Coach Joe B. Hall.

Kentucky has been extraordinarily lucky to have had 5 legendary coaches, and that the two who were less successful only stayed for a short time. Many programs get lost in the wilderness trying to recapture former glory but Kentucky has not had any significant stretches like that. Coach Hall is one of the few who could follow a legend.

Top flight Volunteer defense

Tennessee ranks 2nd in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings right behind LSU. The two are similar in that they both force a lot of turnovers by swarming the ball and passing lanes, but allow opponents to shoot a lot of threes. Both teams are very good at protecting the rim as well, although LSU is better than Tennessee due to more switchable athletes.

I think UK should be OK today against the Tennessee defense because of the prep that LSU matchup afforded. UK made good adjustments to move the ball better in the second half and get open looks. UK has not had disastrous turnover problems this season even in several games against teams who force a lot of turnovers. Against LSU, UK committed turnovers on 17% of possessions with Wheeler or TyTy in the game and a staggering 38% when both were out. If UK’s guards are available today they should do a solid job handling pressure.

UK also had little trouble scoring at the rim against LSU. UK hit 69% of their shots there, below UK’s normal figure of 76% but not significantly so.

Tennessee’s 3 main guards (Chandler, Vescovi, Ziegler) all force steals at a high rate, but none have much size. UK just needs to be mindful of passing lanes and avoid a steady stream of turnovers.

One thing to watch for is UK’s ability to score inside of 17 feet. UK is probably the most effective offense in this area in the whole country. They lead the nation in FG% at the rim and also hit 52% of shots between the rim and 17 feet. In a quick scan of other teams I didn’t see anyone else above 45%! UK should do a lot of damage here against a Tennessee team without a lot of length to deter shots. Kentucky hit just 2 of 17 two pointers away from the against LSU, but should be in a better spot to get their preferred shots inside 17 feet today.

Struggling Vol offense

The Vol offense ranks 58th in KenPom offensive efficiency, but has been on an even worse skid over the past 4 games. Tennessee isn’t really elite in any area of offense, with just average shooting from three, at the rim, and in transition. The biggest offensive threats from deep are Santiago Vescovi and Justin Powell, but neither is better than 39% this season. Kentucky was very effective on defense against LSU with the Tigers hitting just 42% at the rim, and that follows a recent pattern of UK defending the rim capably. Tennessee’s best source of offense is off of steals, so limiting those is a key for Uk today.

Several Vols have struggled in the last 4 games specifically. Kennedy Chandler is hitting just 50% at the rim and 22% from three in that stretch, well below his season numbers. Stretch big Olivier Nkamhoua is just 2-7 from deep in that stretch after hitting 60% prior. To compound matters, these two are taking the largest portion of Tennessee shots in the last 4 games. Only Vescovi has kept up his shooting accuracy, but his portion of shots has dropped.

I think Kentucky should be able to record a big win today, unless something really unusual happens. The LSU game was good prep for this, so UK should be ready for the Volunteer D. UK has also found a nice adjustment as opponents have focused on Oscar Tshiebwe, with other Cats like Brooks, Toppin, and Wheeler finding more room to operate around the rim and finishing more effectively there. Without a ton of Vol length, one of these supporting players should be able to score inside today.