Oh, Kentucky, oh no...
The Cats followed up their best performance of the year with another dud. What went wrong against Alabama?
Kentucky fans suffered through a 1-6 start before getting the type of winning streak that is usually taken for granted. Sure, the Cats didn’t look great in edging past Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, but that Florida win was a thing of beauty. It seemed like Kentucky was on the right path! But then things fell back apart against Alabama.
How did the Wildcats get so thoroughly beaten by the Tide? What do the Cats need to focus on? Can they get things back on track again Auburn? I tackle these questions in the latest Hoops Insight…
A master class in offensive scheme
Believe it or not, there are some positive takeaways from the Alabama game on defense:
Kentucky’s defense inside the arc was solid, as Alabama hit only 11% of their midrange shots, 54% in the paint, and 44% of their total twos; that is Alabama’s 2nd worst 2 point shooting all season
Kentucky slowed Alabama down; the Tide take almost 35% of their shots within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, but took only 20% of them that quickly against UK
Neither of these things ended up making much of a difference in the game, however, largely thanks to Alabama’s halfcourt offensive scheme. Let me explain…
You might not believe this, but Kentucky actually outshot Alabama in halfcourt offense from midrange and in the paint:
Kentucky hit 29% of their midrange shots, and Alabama hit 13%
Kentucky hit 67% of their shots in the paint, and Alabama hit 60%
BUT…
Alabama hit 43% of their two pointers in halfcourt offense and Kentucky hit only 39%
How can that happen? It’s because Alabama took 15 shots in the paint vs just 8 from midrange, while Kentucky took 17 from midrange and just 6 in the paint. Kentucky’s halfcourt offense this season has continued to produce shots outside the paint which are converted at a very low rate, while Alabama focuses on shots in the paint or outside the three point arc. For the season, Kentucky has shot much better than Alabama at the rim or from midrange, and just slightly worse from three:
But Alabama focuses much more on the more productive shots:
It’s great that Kentucky defended shots inside the arc well, but that is nowhere near enough when you handicap yourself by focusing on low-value shots!
Coming into the Alabama game, there was a lot of talk about how fast-paced Alabama liked to play. Kentucky succeeded in slowing down the Tide more than almost everyone has, but I actually think that hurt Kentucky a bit. The reason is simple: Alabama has been a better offensive team in halfcourt offense than in transition this season. In transition situations, Alabama has an effective Fg% of 45%; in halfcourt, this rises to 52%. The split was similar against Kentucky, where Alabama had a 50% eFG% in transition and 55% in halfcourt. Kentucky might have been better off making the game more of a track meet, actually, as the Wildcats actually outshot Alabama in transition 52% to 50%! By making the game more of a halfcourt one, Kentucky magnified the advantage Alabama generated with its shot selection.
To be fair, I haven’t mentioned a major factor yet. In halfcourt offense, Kentucky hit exactly 0% of its threes (0-10) while Alabama managed 45% (9-20). If Kentucky hits zero threes in halfcourt offense, no amount of shot selection will win a game. But Kentucky needed to hit 70% (7-10) to make up the 20 point margin and win this game. You simply can’t put yourself in a situation where you have to drastically outshoot your opponents from every area of the floor in order to win a game.
How can Kentucky improve? Maybe by running more.
I really thought Kentucky had figured some things out in their offensive scheme prior to Alabama. In each of the prior 2 games they had taken as many or more shots in the paint as in the midrange. They had done so earlier in the year against Richmond and Georgia Tech, but hit only 10-29 shots in the paint in those two games, a dismal 34%. Against Vandy and Florida, Kentucky was a more typical 20-29 in the paint, for 69%.
To be fair, Kentucky did try to get some looks in the paint against Alabama but threw away a seemingly infinite number of entry passes. However, it’s inexcusable that every single UK player except Isaiah Jackson and Jacob Toppin took more midrange shots than shots in the paint in halfcourt offense. So, how can Kentucky improve their offense?
How about trying to run in transition more? While UK takes 44% of their shots from midrange in halfcourt offense, they are only 24% of their shots in transition. The Cats are hitting 37% of their threes in transition (vs 28% in halfcourt) and 67% of their shots in the paint (vs 60% in halfcourt). Overall, UK has an effective Fg% of 53% in transition vs 41% in halfcourt offense (excluding garbage time).
A few Wildcats might really benefit on offense from more transition. Brandon Boston has an effective FG% of 46% in transition and 26% in halfcourt; he gets half of his shots in the paint in transition and finishes 67%, compared to 24% and a 31% FG% in halfcourt. Davion Mintz is hitting just 29% of his threes in halfcourt, but hits 47% in transition. Isaiah Jackson has taken 93% of his transition shots in the paint (13 of 14), but only 46% in the paint in halfcourt as he settles for midrange far too often.
All of these players could benefit from getting out and running more. The place I’d focus if I was on Kentucky’s staff is after defensive rebounds. After getting a defensive rebound, 45% of Kentucky’s shots comes within the first 10 seconds and 55% come after 10 seconds. However, Kentucky hits 51% of their shots within the first 10 seconds and a pifitul 28% after 10 seconds. That 28% is the 2nd worst figure in the country, by the way. Over half of the teams in the country take more shots within the first 10 seconds than after the first 10 seconds after a defensive rebound, and the national average is about a 53-47 split. Kentucky was right at that figure last year, tending to take shots more quickly after defensive boards than this year. Given the team’s halfcourt struggles, I think it’s a strategy worth pursuing this season.
Auburn is faster, but sloppy
Auburn has seen a major change in their style since Sharife Cooper was ruled eligible. Prior to him suiting up, Auburn was 190th in tempo nationally. In the 2 games since he’s started playing, they are 5th. However, I don’t think that this means that Auburn now wants to play fast. Those 2 games have been against Alabama and Georgia. Those teams are ranked 16th and 7th in tempo for the season, per KenPom. I don’t expect Auburn to turn the game into a track meet on Saturday, but Kentucky might not mind that.
Aside from what I wrote above about Kentucky being better in transition, Auburn has some sloppy tendencies that could really help Kentucky out. First, Auburn is extremely turnover-prone. They are 317th nationally in turnover rate this season, even worse than Kentucky. Only Morehead State turns it over more frequently among Kentucky opponents. Auburn also a poor defensive rebounding team, so Kentucky should get extra shots if they can rebound their misses, helping the Cats overcome some of their shooting issues. Lastly, Auburn is turnover-prone in transition themselves, ranking 306th in turnover rate there. The more Auburn tries to run, the sloppier they will probably get, which gives Kentucky some margin of error in this game.
The scary thing is that Auburn shoots a ton of threes; almost half of their shots come from deep, and 4 of their rotation players take more threes than twos. Only their backup bigs are hesitant to shoot. Unlike Alabama, who also had a lot of guards who could get to the rim and finish, Auburn’s guards are not particulary good at the rim. In halfcourt offense, only Allen Flanigan and Sharife Cooper hit more than 46% of their shots at the rim, and only Cooper takes more than 23% of his shots at the rim. Almost all of Alabam'a’s guards hit more than 50% of their shots at the rim, and most took at least 30 of their shots there. Auburn has a more clear divide…the bigs do damage at the rim, and the guards and wings do damage from deep.
Kentucky is going to have to show they can guard the three point line. That should be easier against a team that isn’t as good at driving and dishing, but it still won’t be easy. The thing that gives me the most confidence in UK defending the three this game is that North Carolina ais a similar team whose guards stay on the perimeter and whose big men do damage around the rim, and they hit just 25% of their threes against Kentucky. If UK can hold Auburn to something like that from deep, they should win this game.