Kentucky's gotten better, but how?

The Wildcats have been on a roll lately. What is driving the improvement?

On the evening of Dec 11, 2021, UK fans were in a bad place. Their favorite team, coming off a ghastly 9-16 season, was off to a 7-2 start that was not as good as the record appeared. The Wildcats had lost their only 2 games to quality teams (Duke and Notre Dame), and the fan base was openly questioning whether transfer PG Sahvir Wheeler should be benched after the Fighting Irish all but dared him to shoot, with predictable results.

Since then a switch has flipped. UK has won 7 of 8, with their only blemish a loss at LSU where the margin of defeat came when both starting Wildcat guards were injured. Kentucky has rocketed up both the KenPom rankings (moving from 21st to 5th) and the similar rankings at BartTorvik.com, where UK has been the 2nd highest rated team in the country since that Notre Dame loss.

A number of armchair analysts and hoops pundits have quick and easy answers as to what has driven UK’s improvement. UK’s shooters have gotten hot! The Wildcats are running more! Oscar Tshiebwe is taking over down low! TyTy Washington is becoming a star! But here at Hoops Insight we don’t do quick and easy answers. We look at data, then look further, then look some more, then take a break, then look some more. In this article, I explore what’s changed about UK in their recent hot streak.

Domination, quantified

Let’s first level set on exactly how good UK has been, and how much better they are than their first 9 games. In the last 8 games, UK:

• Has outscored opponents by +186 points in 476 possessions (excluding garbage time), scoring 127.1 pts/100 possessions and allowing 88.0

• Their opponents have been about 9 pts/100 possessions better than average, so UK’s adjusted margin is +48.2 pts/100 possessions

This is quite simply an incredible number. To put this into more perspective, in the first 9 games of the season UK:

• Outscored opponents by +152 points in 525 possessions (excluding garbage time), scoring 114.9 pts/100 and allowing 87.0

• Their opponents were a bit worse than average in aggregate, so UK’s adjusted margin was +26.3 pts/100 possessions

Kentucky is playing about twice as well, if you grade by adjusted margin, which quantifies how much better a team is than average. What’s making them so much better?

What it isn’t….

Savvy readers could spot that UK’s points allowed per 100 possessions hasn’t improved meaningfully. They were allowing 87 previously and now allow 88. In reality, they’re playing a bit better on defense because they’re getting the same results against better teams, but that’s not where most of the improvement lies. It’s on offense, where UK is scoring over 12 additional points per 100 possessions while playing tougher teams.

Surprisingly, Kentucky’s offensive effectiveness isn’t being driven by getting out in transition more…even though it might feel that way. 34% of UK’s shots have come in transition since the Notre Dame loss, slightly down from 37% prior.

It’s not driven by superhuman play from Oscar Tshiebwe either. In the first 9 games he averaged 24.6 pts and 20.2 rebounds per 40 minutes, and his averages are 22.5 and 20.5 per 40 in the last 8 ganes. His minutes per game have increased slightly from 28.2 to 30.6, but that’s not a major factor.

What it is…

There are 4 key factors driving Kentucky’s improvement:

1. Better 3 point shooting

2. Better finishing in transition

3. Lower turnover rate

4. Shorter rotation

Let’s dig into these in order.

First, UK’s 3 point shooting has improved from 31% through the ND loss to 46% since (excluding garbage time). Breaking it down by shooter, you can see what’s changed pretty clearly:

Grady and Washington were great shooters and have continued to be so, with small improvements in accuracy. Davion Mintz got the shooting power-up. Most importantly, UK’s top shooters increased their 3 point attempts while UK largely stopped having other, less accurate, players shoot threes. Instead of 40% of their shots taken byplayers hitting less than 20%, Kentucky has 9% of their threes being taken by that group. This is a small but important tweak to avoid wasted possessions!

Second, while UK has not increased the frequency of getting out in transition they have greatly improved the rate at which they score in transition. Previously UK had a 48% effective Fg% in transition, which is just a horrible number; they had a 55% eFG% in halfcourt offense. There’s no reason to take early shots if you’re going to score more effectively by being patient. In the last 9 games UK’s effective Fg% in transition is up to 65% (compared to a still very good 59% in halfcourt offense), meaning UK is not wasting these short possessions. Some of the improvement is covered by the 3 point shooting above as UK was hitting 28% of their threes in transition and now hits 48%, but that’s not the only improvement. UK has also greatly increased the frequency with which they get to the rim in transition as well as their finishing when they get there. The Cats started the year taking 37% of their shots at the rim in transition and hit 69%; those figures are up to 45% and a staggering 89% FG% in the last 8 games. The players who has shifted their approach the most is Sahvir Wheeler. In the first 9 games Wheeler took only 20 of his 43 transition shots at the rim; he was 14-20 at the rim but a ghastly 4-23 elsewhere. In the last 8, Wheeler has taken 14 of his 21 transition shots at the rim and hit 13, for a stunning 93% FG% at the rim in transition! Wheeler has always been an impressive finisher at the rim for a 5’9” (maybe) PG, but he’s reached another level this season. He’s finishing 76% of his shots there; Kentucky had zero rotation players who were that accurate at the rim last season.

UK has also lowered their turnover rate during this hot stretch, down from 18% of possessions to just 15%. That difference is just about 2 fewer turnovers per game, which may not seem like a lot. When a team is scoring this effectively, however, every possession adds up. UK scores about 1.5 points on every possession that doesn’t end with a turnover, so 2 fewer turnovers equals a 3 point improvement per game. The improvement hasn’t come from their primary ballhandlers, however; Sahvir Wheeler and Tyty Washington have combined to turn the ball over on about 9% of possessions in both UK’s opening 9 games and the recent 8 game stretch. The biggest improvement has come from an unlikely spot: the power forwared position. Both Keion Brooks and Jacob Toppin committed turnovers on about 4% of UK possessions during the opening stretch of the season. Brooks has 12 turnovers against just 1 assist in the first 5 games of the season, while Toppin had 5 turnovers in just 31 total minutes against North Florida and Southern. Since the Notre Dame loss Brooks and Toppin have each reduced their turnovers to 1% of possessions, with Toppin registering just 3 despite playing 10 or more minutes in every game and 15 or more in 6 of the 8 games and Brooks posting just 2 turnovers in 140 minutes over the past 6 games. These two players’ ball security at the power forward position has helped UK increase the impact of better shooting.

One final area where UK has sneakily improved has been shortening the rotation to focus more minutes on their core 7 standouts: Tshiebwe, Wheeler, Grady, Brooks, Washington, Toppin, and Mintz. Over the first 9 games UK had an adjusted margin of +46.3 pts/100 poss when 5 of these 7 were in the game, but this core group only played 43% of the possessions together. Over the past 8 games this core group has remained strong, posting a +55.7 adjusted margin per 100 while playing 69% of the available possessions together. Interestingly enough, there may be a case to add an 8th name to that core group. UK has quietly been very solid when Lance Ware plays over the last 8 games, outscoring opponents by +22 in 71 possessions and an adjusted margin of +46.5 per 100. Earlier in the season UK was lost when Oscar Tshiebwe sat on the bench, but UK has been just fine in those limited minutes lately. Ware almost never shoots, taking just 3 shots in the last 8 games (ex garbage time), but he’s 3-3 and is rebounding 31% of opponent misses. Opponents are hitting just 48% at the rim when he’s playing lately, and UK is hitting 93%. The sample is small, but the signs are there that UK actually may not be in too much trouble if Tshiebwe runs into occasional foul trouble.

The offseason talk was of a UK offense with better spacing and snipers all over the court. CJ Fredrick’s injury and Dontaie Allen’s struggles have limited that a bit, but over the last 8 games UK has found another gear on offense by having players focus on what they are best at. Having shooters shoot and finishers finish, while emphasizing ball security from everyone and establishing a core rotation has turned Kentucky into one of the very best offenses in the country. We’ll see where it all leads, but everything is pointing in the right direction for the Cats right now.