Kentucky's best is pretty, pretty good
The Wildcats showed up in a big way against Florida with Keion Brooks making his season debut. Has UK figured it out?
In the known universe of obvious statements, “Kentucky played their best game against Florida” is an all-timer. It was more than just their best game of the season, however…it was one of Kentucky best games in the past few years.
To put the win in context, Kentucky posted as adjusted margin of +63 per 100 possessions against Florida, excluding garbage time at the end. Here’s how it breaks down:
+23 points in 55 possessions (+42 per 100)
+4.5 points per 100 bonus for winning on the road (accounting for homecourt advantage)
+17 points per 100 to adjust for Florida’s KenPom rating (accounting for opponent quality)
In this win, Kentucky reached some standards they haven’t hit in a while:
Highest adjusted margin since a 27 point win vs Auburn on Feb 23, 2019
Largest margin of victory in an SEC road game since Jan 29, 2019 vs Vanderbilt
Largest margin of victory away from home vs a top-50 KenPom team since beating Michigan State by 21 in the Champions Classic on Nov 15, 2016
In short, Kentucky only puts up a performance like this once every few years. That’s the first time we’ve been able to say that in a positive way about UK this season. The last 2 UK teams who put up performances like these were the 2018-19 and 2016-17 teams….and they were top-10 teams who made the Elite Eight and lost heartbreakers to just miss the Final Four. It’s a long, long way from starting 1-6 to achieving that sort of thing, but there are some signs that this performance is real and heralds big things for Kentucky.
Improvement in nearly every way
Against Florida, Kentucky was better than their season averages in everything except rebounding and drawing free throws. In many areas UK was much, much better.
The Wildcats posted a stunning 63% effective FG% against the Gators; that is 8% higher than any other team posted this season. This sterling shooting came despite UK actually getting fewer transition opportunities than usual, as only 29% of their shots were in transition (vs 35% average). In halfcourt offense, Kentucky was on from everywhere; they made the most 3’s, second most midrange shots, and most paint shots that UK has made in any game this season. They also shut down Florida inside the arc, where the Gators were just 6-24 in halfcourt situations before garbage time. That’s the lowest any UK opponent shot this season, with only Kansas (27%) also under 40%. The Wildcats even forced turnovers on 27% of Florida possessions; only Morehead State had committed more among UK opponents, and Florida had not committed that many in any game.
The most notable change was the return of Keion Brooks from injury. Kentucky was flat-out dominant when Brooks was in the game. Prior to garbage time, Brooks played 35 possessions and UK outscored Florida by +28 points. Everything that went well for Kentucky did so with Brooks in; Kentucky had an eFg% of 76% with him in vs 44% for Florida, and committed turnovers on 17% of possessions vs 26% for Florida.
The only thing to be concerned about is that Kentucky did not look good when Brooks sat. UK only played 22 non-garbage time possessions without Brooks this game, but all of the same things that have plagued the Cats all season were there. They did hit 40% of their threes with Brooks out, but only 48% of their twos as the Cats took (and missed) a lot of midrange shots. The turnover rate crept up to 23% when Brooks was out as well. In this limited time, Kentucky had an adjusted margin of +12…almost identical to their +14 for the season. The trio of Brandon Boston, Isaiah Jackson, and Olivier Sarr in particular replicated most of their season-long struggles when Brooks sat. Those three have combined for an eFg% of 34% and a turnover rate of 10% this season; when Brooks sat against Florida, they had an eFG% of 34% and a turnover rate of 9%! It’s probably not terribly meaningful and just a coincidence, but it’s worth watching if those three continue to struggle without Brooks on the floor.
A showdown vs Alabama for first place
The winner of Tuesday night’s game between Kentucky and Alabama will be in first place and undefeated in the SEC. The Crimson Tide have been rolling in SEC play, but have some clear weaknesses.
Alabama has a clear offensive style. They shoot almost exclusively from three point range or at the rim, and take the lowest percentage of shots in the nation outside these areas (<10%). They look for quick shots, ranking 8th in the percentage of their shots taken in the first 10 seconds of the clock, but aren’t very good at converting. They are only 319th in eFG% on these shots. Look for the Crimson Tide to hunt quick shots on rebounds or even after UK makes, so Kentucky will need to match up quickly. Most of Alabama’s guards and wings are not good finishers at the rim, with the exception of John Petty and Jahvon Quinerly. Kentucky’s length at each position should bother Alabamsa’s guards.
Alabama runs a lot of 4-out and 5-out sets and likes to use the drive to set up shooters. They roasted Florida and Tennessee from deep by spreading them out. Kentucky’s bigs are going to need to be comfortable stepping outside, because the Tide big men are very willing to step outside and fire. The biggest offensive threat for Alabam is Jahvon Quinerly breaking down the defense off the dribble; he is rated in the 81st percentile by Synergy as a pick-and-roll ballhandler and 93rd in isolation. However, Kentucky just played against a Mississippi State team with 2 guards in DJ Stewart and Iverson Molinar who rate similarly in pick-and-roll and iso, and held them to 11-30 shooting in the halfcourt…so if UK digs in, they can contain playmaking guards.
Alabama shoots a lot of threes (26th in 3pt frequency) but isn’t all that accurate; they have more games hitting under 30% (4) than over 40% (3). What’s more, their 3 losses were all games where they shot poorly from the outside against solid teams…so Alabama needs to hit outside shots to win. UK has been pretty good defending the three this season (77th nationally), but SEC opponents are hitting 39% of their threes. Alabama is going to fire away, and Kentucky needs to challenge shooters to stay in this one.
On defense, Alabama is nothing special. Their biggets strength is forcing steals, but oddly enough it’s their big men who get them, not the guards. Kentucky needs to watch out for Jordan Bruner and Herb Jones going for steals on post-ups, or when switching on picks…those two have active hands.
Herb Jones is the biggest X factor in this game, to me. He’s 6’8”, and takes 75% of his shots at the rim, but is a poor finisher there at just a 50% FG%. He also gets very few assisted baskets at the rim; he’s going to look to drive and create his own shot. He doesn’t take a high volume of threes, with only 16 attempts on the year; that’s tied for 7th on Alabama. However, he has made 4 unassisted threes, tied for the most on the team. He’s more of a shot creator than most 6’8” power forwards, and Keion Brooks or Isaiah Jackson should be a very interesting matchup on him.
The keys for Kentucky in this game are going to be:
Controlling dribble penetration without helping off shooters
Making Bama guards Shackelford and Primo prove they can score at the rim
Continuing to improve their shot selection and getting halfcourt offense in the paint
If Kentucky can do these things, they will probably be leading the SEC by Wednesday morning. If you think that might happen and sports betting is legal in your state, you might be interested in these numbers per DraftKings:
