Keion Brooks is a future pro

While this season has not gone well for Kentucky, their lone returnee from last season has improved despite an injury setback and may be on his way to the professional ranks.

As Kentucky’s postseason hopes have largely disintegrated, much of the discussion around the team will turn to which players are likely to return next season and how good that team might be. Freshmen Brandon Boston, Terrence Clarke, and Isaiah Jackson are all presumed to declare for the NBA draft, and Olivier Sarr is considered likely to pursue a professional career overseas. One player who many fans and writers are hoping to return next season is sophomore forward Keion Brooks. Whether he returns next season or declares for the draft after this one, I am here to make the case that Keion Brooks is likely to have a career in the NBA. Let’s enjoy some positive vibes as I write about how Brooks has advanced his pro prospects in his sophomore season.

Making a leap into exclusive company

Before this season, I took a stab at projecting what UK fans might expect from Keion Brooks this season by comparing him to similar UK players. Based on his freshman season, PJ Washington and Wenyen Gabriel seemed strong comps, and I wrote the following:

Given the history of returning forwards under Calipari, it's reasonable to think that Keion Brooks will show more of an offensive game next season while retaining many of the strengths he's displayed elsewhere. It's unlikely that he will see his role change as much as PJ Washington did, but something along the lines of 11 points, 6 rebounds in 25-30 minutes per game, and 34% shooting from 3 on ~50 attempts seems perfectly reasonable based on the evidence. If he can put up those kind of numbers in the SEC, he'll likely be discussed as a late first or early second round draft pick next season.

First, allow me to take a little victory lap on this one. As of this writing, Brooks is averaging 11.8 points and 6.0 rebounds per game in 24.6 minutes per game. He’s only shooting 27% from three, but he’s a 3 for 5 game away from shooting 35%, so that’s pretty close, and he has ratcheted up his 3 point volume even more than I though (1.9 attempts per game, or about 65 for a normal college season). Brooks’ advanced stats are very solid as well, as he has a Player Efficiency Rating of 23, and a Box Plus-Minus of 8.4. Both are the highest on UK’s team this season.

That doesn’t sound like any sort of astonishing statistical resume, but it’s pretty rare for a sophomore forward to hit those markers in the SEC. Since the 2009-10 season, 7 SEC forwards have averaged 12 ppg and 6 rpg with a PER of 23 and a BPM of 8.4 in their sophomore season, you can click on the link to see the list, but I’ll screen cap it here too:

Of those 7 players, 5 were drafted in the NBA. Mitchell was kicked off Alabama’s team and plays professionally overseas, and Keyontae Johnson returned this season before a tragic heart condition sidelined him. What Brooks is doing this season puts him in elite company, and he’s just getting back into rhythym after injury.

Likely to continue to improve this season

In my preseason post about Brooks, I noted that an area he likely would improve is in spot-up shooting. Brooks was not good in that role last season, rating in the 14th percentile on those possessions per Synergy despite 1/3 of his involvement in offense coming in that role. I noted that Gabriel and Washington had shown tremendous improvement in their spot-up shooting when they returned, and Patrick Patterson went from a non-shooter to a competent one under Calipari.

Brooks has not shown the improvement I expected this season in that area so far, rating in just the 28th percentile per Synergy. However, looking a level deeper shows some real improvement. When Brooks take a catch and shoot jumper, he has scored 12 points on 12 possessions; 1 point per possession would put him in the 66th percentile as a spot up shooter. However, he has also tried to drive off of a spot up 7 times and has just 2 points on those possessions. Last season Brooks actually scored a bit better when driving off of spot ups (18 points on 28 poss) than on catch and shoot (15 points on 26 poss). His improvement this season as a spot up shooter is disguised, but it’s real, and it reflects a skill he’ll need in the NBA.

I expected that Brooks would retain the strengths he’d shown in other areas on offense, notably as a post-up player (54th percentile) and in transition (94th percentile). Brooks has indeed maintained his effectiveness in transition, where he is in the 83rd percentile this season, but is only in the 16th percentile as a post-up scorer this season. What gives?

It may have involved shaking off rust, or UK tweaking the offensive approach, but Brooks showed up against Tennessee as a real post up weapon. Prior to the Tennessee game he had been used in 10 total post ups, and never more than 4 in a game; he was used in 8 against Tennessee alone. He had scored a total of 2 points on those previous 10 post ups, but exploded for 9 points on them against the Vols. What’s more, he recorded most of them against Yves Pons, the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year.

Brooks is only 4 for 15 from three this season, but there is reason to believe he’s a better shooter than that indicates. First, that’s still a small sample and a 3 for 5 night in his next game would put him at 35% for the season. His shot looks better and more consistent than last season, and continued catch and shoot opportunities should bear fruit. Second, his accuracy from the free throw line hints that he’s improved his overall touch. Brooks was a 64% shooter there last season but is 18 for 20 (90%) so far this season. Analysis done around projecting NBA prospects indicates that free throw shooting and the frequency of three point attempts is more useful at projecting a prospects’s eventual NBA three point percentage, and Brooks has made huge strides in both areas this season. He may end up the season projecting as a passable three point shooter in the NBA.

More than just scoring

Brooks’ offensive game is not the only ares where he shines. His rebounding has been very strong at Kentucky, particularly given the frequency with which he’s played at small forward. As I mentioned above he’s averaging 10 rebounds per 40 minutes, and is collecting about 16.5% of available defensive rebounds and 9.5% of available offensive rebounds when on the court. These are not dominant rebounding numbers, but are certainly very good and more typical of a good power forward.

Brooks also has quietly become a very solid passer. He only averages 1.3 assists per game, but that is up from 0.2 last season and is more impressive when you consider how much trouble Kentucky has scoring. Brooks assists on over 12% of his teammates baskets when he’s on the court; that is higher than Immanuel Quickley posted last season and just behind PJ Washington in 2019 for the highest for any forward under Calipari at UK.

Brooks also brings some defensive chops. While he’s no Isaiah Jackson, Brooks has blocked 3.7% of opponent shots this season, just slightly behind what Olivier Sarr is putting up. Put it all together and Brooks is a rare breed of well-rounded forward, which you can see again by comparing him to other SEC forwards. Only 7 times has an SEC forward put up a 16% defensive rebound rate, 9.5% offensive rebound rate, 12% assist rate and 3.5% block rate; again the list is composed of future NBA players:

Losing Keion Brooks to the NBA after this season would be a blow to Kentucky, as he would be poised for stardom next year and could lead the team back to their typical high NCAA Tournament seed. However, it’s important to recognize that Brooks has come a long way from the freshman who averaged 4.5 points and 15 minutes per game last season. UK fans probably want to see more regular season accomplishment before Brooks’ farewell, but his all-around skills and sharp improvement in a difficult season may earn him the right to a paycheck next year for doing what he does best.