How have UK's freshmen improved?

As we enter the final stretch of the season, how have some of UK's key freshmen transformed their games for the better?

One of the things you can usually bank on under John Calipari is that the freshmen who he relies on will usually refine and improve their games during the season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander grew into an NBA lottery pick, Tyler Herro became a bucket, Karl-Anthony Towns became a low post terror and the #1 pick…it’s a common theme.

This season started out worse than anyone could have imagined (except Calipari maybe, who spoke of a possible 0-6 start). The Wildcats have started rounding into form lately, however. While the most notable improvement may have come from Davion Mintz, a trio of highly regarded freshmen have each made significant strides and are now exhibiting why they were so well regarded as prospects. In each case, their improvement has come from clarification of their role on offense. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I’ll look at how Devin Askew, Brandon Boston, and Isaiah Jackson have grown this season and are playing their best right now.

A roller coaster season for the freshman point guard

It’s not easy to play point guard as a freshman at any high-level program, but Kentucky has a unique legacy that makes it even more difficult. When you step into the lead guard role, you are filling the shoes of NBA guards like John Wall, Brandon Knight, Tyler Ulis, De’aaron Fox, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Ashton Hagans. The expectations of your coaching staff and fan base must weigh heavily from day 1, and even more so when you struggle out of the gate.

Devin Askew’s opening 4 games were disastrous. He looked timid and overmatched, rarely shooting while turning the ball over. He took only 11% of UK’s shots when he played, and had 8 assists vs 13 turnovers. He hit just 29% of his shots in the paint, and was benched.

The next 7 games he grew steadier, especially taking care of the ball. He improved to record 28 assists vs 24 turnovers, and had a 47% effective FG% while taking 15% of UK’s shots. He hit a passable 59% of his shots in the paint, although he settled for midrange shots 1/3 of the time.

The next 5 games were a brutal shooting stretch for Askew. He had a horrific 17% effective FG%, as he went only 1-18 on shots outside the paint. He only took 28% of his shots inside the paint as he grew more hesitant to drive. The only positive note was that he improved his assist to turnover ratio further, with 18 assists to 11 turnovers.

That set the stage for this last 5 games, where he’s put all the best parts of his season together. He has a 2-1 assist to turnover ratio during this stretch, his best of the season. He has a 56% effective FG%, driven by 43% shooting from deep and 70% shooting in the paint. Even better, he takes more shots from three or in the paint than in the midrange. Askew has found a groove as a point guard who can set up his teammates, take care of the ball, and offer efficient offense. While he’s neither jet-quick nor a pure shooter, he is picking his spots to use his plus size as a point guard to work into the paint or finding open space for catch and shoot jumpers.

The gunner turns into a sniper

Brandon Boston’s national profile grew during a senior year where he showed he was one of the best scorers in prep basketball. In the preseason he received hype as a likely top-10 NBA draft pick and looked like he would be the next great wing at Kentucky. But when the games began, that player was nowhere to be seen. In recent games, he’s reinvented himself as more of an outside threat and re-established himself as a weapon…but boy, it got ugly there for a while.

During his first 17 games as a Wildcat, Boston struggled mightily on offense. He took 28% of UK’s shots when on the court, the highest load on the team, but didn’t deliver at all. While he did average 14 points per 36 minutes, that was purely due to volume. His effective FG% was a ghastly 37% as he hit just 39% of his twos, hitting just 26% from midrange and 55% in the paint. He was no better from three, hitting just 21% there. He only took 26% of his shots from deep, preferring the midrange and occasional forays into the lane. He even had more turnovers than assists, to top it all off. It seemed unthinkable that he could be an NBA draft pick, and his stock began to fall.

Don’t look now, but Boston has largely reinvented himself over the past 5 games. He has taken 51% of his shots from three in that time, and is connecting on 48% from there. Boston has largely avoided midrange shots, shooting twice as often in the paint. His accuracy inside the arc still leaves something to be desired, as he’s hit only 32% of his twos in this stretch, but if he can even get back to being an average finisher in the paint he’ll be very good scorer for UK. He’s even recorded 9 assists to just 5 turnovers in that time as he appears much more decisive and settled in his role as an outside shooter, first and foremost.

The pogo stick turns into an alpha dog

Before the season began there were whispers that the most impressive player in UK’s workouts might be Isaiah Jackson. He wasn’t a McDonald’s All American, but his athleticism and shot blocking talent was drawing rave reviews. When the season began, Jackson lived up to the billing as an electric but somewhat raw talent. Throughout the season, he’s been a consistent force on the boards and a defensive menace, albeit one who freelances a bit much on that end. As Kentucky’s perimeter players have focused more on their outside shots, Jackson has benefited from more space inside the arc to emerge as a real offensive weapon as well.

Jackson came out of the gate focused on defense and rebounding. Through the first 13 games, he averaged 11 points, 11 rebounds, and 5.6 blocks per 36 minutes. He was blocking 10% of opponent shots whenever he was on the court, a staggering number! He was less effective on offense than you’d hope, as he settled for midrange shots too often (38% of his shots there).

The next 5 games he started to shift his defensive focus a bit from shotblocking to getting more in position for rebounding. His blocks per 36 minutes dropped to 3.5 as he blocked only 6.3% of opponent shots, but he collected a whoppin 27% of opponents misses (up from 20% earlier). He was still raw offensively, with an effective FG% of just 48%. Part of the issue was that Jackson just didn’t have much room to operate inside the arc, as his teammates were busy trying to score there. Through Feb 9th, UK was taking 72% of their shots inside the arc when Jackson was in the game. Even the guards/wings were getting into the act; 60% of their shots were coming inside the arc. Without much floor spacing, Jackson didn’t have room to use his quickness, and he lacks the bulk to just bully defenders.

In the last 3 games, however, he’s found his role as a major cog in the offense. UK’s guards and wings are now taking 54% of their shots outside the arc with Jackson in the game, which opens up room for him to make his moves. Jackson has increased his offensive load to now take 22% of UK’s shots when he plays, up from 17% earlier. He has a sterling eFG% of 61%, as he now takes 78% of his shots in the paint. Over the last 3 games Jackson is averaging 25 points and 14 rebounds per 36 minutes.

What to expect vs Florida

UK’s key freshmen are hitting their stride at an important time, as any hopes for an NCAA bid rides on winning the SEC Tournament. An important test looms Saturday afternoon as the Wildcats match up with the Florida Gators. During the first meeting this season, Kentucky obliterated Florida by a 76-58 margin. This was quite a surprise, as it was only Kentucky’s 4th victory in 10 games on the young season. It proved to be more of a one-off than hoped, as UK continued to slump in the weeks after.

Kentucky was overwhelming on both offense and defense in that game. On offense, Kentucky had a season-high 62% eFG% despite very little transition offense. There wasn’t one single factor, as UK hit 50% from 3, 47% from midrange, and 70% in the paint. Kentucky carved up Florida on cuts, as they got more shot attempts and more made baskets off that action than in any game this year. Look for more of that, especially if Kentucky can use the passing skill of Keion Brooks (16% assist rate, 3rd highest on the team).

On defense, Kentucky clamped down on Florida’s perimeter creators. Tre Mann was 0-4 on 2 pointers, one of only 2 games all year where he hasn’t hit a basket inside the arc. Florida’s pick and roll and isolation plays were largely snuffed out by UK’s guards, and instead of these drives leading to shots in the paint or open looks from three they turned into midrange bricks. Kentucky was at their best against Florida when playing more mobile bigs Keion Brooks or Isaiah Jackson. With those 2 in together, UK blitzed Florida 22-5 in just 13 possessions, allowing the Gators to hit just 13% of twos. Between the toughness of UK’s guards defensively and the switchability of Brooks and Jackson, UK has some wepaons to keep the Gator offense under wraps.

Every game is a big one now for Kentucky, as they need to keep building on the success of the past few games. Thanks to their freshmen rounding into shape and solid contributions from seniors Davion Mintz and Olivier Sarr, Kentucky has a chance to play their best basketball when it matters most.