How does UK match up with Florida?
The Cats are 2-0 in SEC play, but still haven't found their stride. How does a matchup with the rival Gators bode for their growth as a team?
It took 9 games but Kentucky has strung together two consecutive wins. Both required late comebacks, and neither was against a legitimate SEC contender, but there were some flashes of improvement in a few areas. Now the Wildcats get a stiffer test against the Florida Gators. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I look at how UK matches up with the Gators.
Some defensive slippage as the Gator offense has improved
This is Mike White’s 6th season coaching Florida. The first 4 years of his tenure were marked by strong defensive play, as the Gators ranked in the top 25 in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) each season. Their offense lagged behind the defense each season, ranking outside the top 40 in 3 of those first 4 years, and peaking at 25th in the Elite Eight season of 2017. Coincidentally, that’s the only time Florida has advanced beyond the first weekend of NCAA play under White.
The last 2 seasons have seen the defense slip as the offense improves in Gainesville. Florida was 61st last year in defensive efficiency and is currently 41st, while they’ve been 27th and 22nd in offensive efficiency. They are in their familiar position this season on the fringes of the top 25 and in the top half of the SEC, but with some clear strengths and weaknesses:
They are excellent at scoring in transition, where they are 5th in effective FG% at 69.2%
They are elite at shot blocking, ranking 6th in the percentage of opponent shots they block
They are good at forcing turnovers, ranking 45th
They allow a lot of transition shots (321st) but defend them well (30th in opponent transition effective FG%)
They are poor at defending threes in halfcourt offense, letting opponents hit over 40%
Let’s dive into each of these a bit!
1) Scoring in transition
The Gators get out in transition a fair bit (77th most), largely off of turnovers. The Gators are 45th in opponent turnover rate, and are aggressive in trying to score quickly off of them. When Florida gets in transition, they make the most of it, as they rank 5th nationally in their effective FG% in transition at 69%. They are even better after steals, where they post an eFG% of 85%. Florida has two key strengths that power this: they hit 81% of their shots at the rim in transition (vs 71% for UK), and they take and make a lot of threes in transition (40% of their transition shots, and they hit 50%; UK is at 35% and 32% respectively). Kentucky is good at limiting transition scoring, as they rank 48th in eFG% allowed there, but the Wildcats have been turnover prone. They need to control that to limit opportunities.
2) Shot blocking
The Gators block 15% of opponent shots, almost the exact same rate as Kentucky. But while Kentucky is mostly powered by Isaiah Jackson, Florida lacks any one dominant shotblocker. Backup big Omar Payne is the leader, but wing Scottie Lewis and starting big Colin Castleton also are threats to block shots. Kentucky doesn’t take many shots in the paint, and has enough size to take on the Gators, but needs to be wary of Lewis blocking shots of guards as a help defender or on-ball defender. In halfcourt offense, Devin Askew has actually been the Wildcat who takes shots in the paint most often, but Askew is not a strong finisher at the rim and may be prone to getting his shot blocked in this game.
3) Forcing turnovers
Florida’s guards and wings are nearly all ball hawks. They are good at forcing turnovers on nearly every type of play, as they tend to force turnover with help defense or by jumping passing lanes. Kentucky is turnover prone, ranking 228th in turnover rate. One bit of good news is that, per Synergy, UK is turnover-prone on transition plays (278th) and in isolation (276th), but Florida is not very good at forcing turnover in either of those situations. Their biggest strength is forcing turnovers on post-ups and on spot-ups. If Kentucky can avoid getting the ball stripped in the post, and rotate the ball to open shooters without losing it, they should be able to limit turnovers. Florida’s aggressive can manifest in fouling, as they are 303rd in the rate at which they allow free throws. If Kentucky can draw fouls more often than they commit turnovers, they can stay in the game.
4) Allowing transition shots
A lot of teams allow transition shots because they turn the ball over a lot, but that’s not Florida’s issue. They are especially weak at letting opponents get a quick shot after the Gators made a basket, as they allow the 5th highest rate of shots in this situation. They are also fairly vulnerable after giving up a rebound. 61% of the time when Florida gives up a defensive rebound, opponents get a shot in the first 10 seconds…that’s the 22nd highest rate in the nation. Kentucky can try to get some transition shots if they push off rebounds or even made baskets, which will be sorely welcome for a team struggling on offense.
5) Defending threes
Florida is getting burned from deep this season, ranking 275th in opponent 3 point percentage at 36.6%. The damage is almost all coming in halfcourt offense, where opponents are hitting over 40% of their threes on the Gators. It’s been even worse lately; in the last 3 games (all SEC) Florida opponents are 17-38 on 3 pointers in halfcourt offense. The main issue is that Florida’s aggressive hunting for turnovers leaves them vulnerable if they don’t get one. They are often slow to recover and help onto shooters. If they don’t force turnovers they have a hard time winning. In their last game against Alabama, Florida had their worst opponent turnover rate of the season and the Crimson Tide went 8-20 from three to win by 19.
What will be the keys to a Kentucky win?
Kentucky will need to find efficient sources of offense. These tend to be one of the following: 1) three pointers, 2) shots at the rim, or 3) free throws. Florida’s aggressive defense can help with 1, as they can allow open threes when they aggressively help on drives. Kentucky will need to space the floor to make help defenders cover more ground when trying to force turnovers, and open passing lanes. Keion Brooks’ availability could be big here, as he may be able to provide more spacing than Isaiah Jackson or Lance Ware at the 5. Kentucky forwards tend to stretch their shooting range if they return as sophomores; PJ Washington and Wenyen Gabriel are good examples. If Brooks can do the same he can be a major weapon. Dontaie Allen could again find himself open, since Florida has some of the same defensive issues as Mississippi State. The aggressive Gator defense can also provide free throws; if Kentucky can be aggressive getting the ball to the paint they will draw fouls. About the only way I see UK getting shots at the rim is in transition, as UK just doesn’t do a good job of getting to the rim in halfcourt. The Wildcats will need to look to push the ball, especially off of defensive rebounds.
Kentucky is going to have to limit turnovers. Devin Askew has done a very good job lately with 6 turnovers over the last 5 games, compared to 13 over his first 4, but most of his teammates have had more problems. Other than the Vandy game (where UK had 2 total turnovers), Davion Mintz, Olivier Sarr, and Brandon Boston have had a combined 1 game all season where they played more than 20 minutes and had less than 2 turnovers. UK can’t continue to have turnovers like that.
Florida’s offense isn’t very high powered outside of transition, so UK should be able to handle it. Florida’s biggest strength is running pick-and-roll, but Kentucky has an excellent pick and roll defender in Devin Askew (91st percentile, per Synergy). If he draws the assignment guarding Tre Mann, he may be able to contain him. If Askew gets in foul trouble, however, Kentucky’s only other really strong defender in these spots is Terrence Clarke, who is unlikely to play. If Kentucky has to switch in pick and roll defense, their big men are going to get into foul trouble trying to corral the Gator guards (like you saw towards the end of the Vanderbilt game).
This isn’t a terrible matchup for UK, since the Gators have some weaknesses that can be exploited. Kentucky is going to have to put together a complete game, which hasn’t been their strong suit, and they are going to have to do a lot of little things that have escaped them so far. But if they can:
Space the floor on offense to create driving/passing lanes
Be aware of help defenders and look to pass to open shooters
Contain Florida’s guards in the pick and roll
then I think the Cats will hang with the Gators and have a good shot to pull out a win. If they don’t do those things, it probably won’t be the Cats’ day.