How can UK tweak their halfcourt offense?
The Wildcats have a habit of getting bogged down, but data suggests a couple ideas to jump-start the offense
It’s no secret to readers of mine that I’m not a huge fan of Kentucky’s halfcourt offense. As the rest of college basketball has adopted the three pointer or worked to create shots at the rim, the Wildcats have stubbornly remained loyal to midrange 2 point shots. I wrote last year about the idea that UK needs an offensive coordinator, and this season hasn’t done much to change my opinion. Just consider these facts:
Kentucky is 288th is the percentage of shots taken at the rim, but 3rd in FG% on those shots
That’s despite the fact that Kentucky is #1 in offensive rebound rate, which tends to lead to more shots at the rim, and 19th in the percentage of shots taken in transition, which should also lead to more shots at the rim
The Wildcats are 336th this season in the percentage of their shots taken from three, and have not been above 273rd in that stat nationally since 2011 and never better than 180th under Calipari
Kentucky’s effective FG% has not been better than 65th in the nation since 2016
I figured I should stop just complaining and start offering some solutions, so that’s what I’m going to do today. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I propose a couple tweaks to improve UK’s offense.
#1: Use Kellan Grady more, and in new ways
Kellan Grady is a very effective offensive weapon. This season he has an effective FG% of 58%, ranking 221st in the country. That’s the highest by a perimeter Wildcat since Doron Lamb posted 60% in 2011. It’s also not unusual for Grady, who was at 58.5% as a freshman and 55% as a senior at Davidson. However, UK isn’t using his accuracy much; Grady takes only 16% of UK’s shots when he’s in the game. The only Wildcats who get a lower portion of shots when in the game are Damion Collins, Jacob Toppin, and Lance Ware, and they’re on the fringe of the rotation; Grady is a key player.
Grady largely has a singular role at Kentucky as two-thirds of his shots are from three. Per Synergy tracking, of his 45 threes, 26 have come in pure spot-up, catch and shoot, and another 12 in transition when he spots up on the wing. That’s 38 of his 45 shots in pure “go to a spot and wait for the ball” action. He’s hit 16 of those 38, or 42%, so that’s working pretty well. But he has the capacity to do more for UK.
Last season Grady took 141 three pointers for Davidson. Less than half (66) were pure spot ups, and only 3 were in transition. 77 of his threes were shot coming off of a screen or a handoff last season and Grady hit 27 of those (35%). 35% isn’t earth-shattering, but 35% from 3 is the same as 52.5% from 2, and that’s a pretty solid way to add points. There’s further benefit, which is to free up Grady as he gets attention from defenders on the perimeter. Earlier this season Ohio had a clear game plan to not leave Grady from the perimeter, and he got 2 total shots (1 spot up and 1 handoff). Kentucky’s effective Fg% in halfcourt offense in that game was 47%, and just 37% when Grady was in the game. UK won that game by scoring 20 points in transition to Ohio’s 3, but the Notre Dame loss showed that transition buckets won’t be there all the time. An additional benefit from usingscreens and handoffs to get Grady the ball is that it will draw the defense’s attention, possibly opening up passes and scoring opportunities for teammates. Grady has what’s referred to as “gravity”, where he pulls defenders to him when he has the ball or is even a threat to get it. Stephen Curry is the pre-eminent example of this, and the Warriors have a lot of success when Curry draws attention and passes the ball to teammates for good looks at the rim. Grady isn’t Curry, but UK can use similar actions to free up screeners like Tshiebwe, Brooks, Collins, or Toppin for finishes around the rim.
There’s another area where Grady is useful that Kentucky could stand to use more often, and that’s cuts. Under John Calipari, Kentucky almost never uses cuts to get guards in scoring position. This season UK has taken 36 shots off of what Synergy designates as “cuts”; 3 of those shots are from guards. Last season UK guards took 16 of UK’s 113 shots off cuts, and the season before was 14 of 131. Getting guards shots off of cuts is something that’s practiced much more often by some of the top offenses in college basketball. Last season’s title game participants Baylor (31-45 on cuts by guards) and Gonzaga (54-75) both used it as a weapon effectively.
Last season at Davidson, Grady himself took 13 shots off of cuts and scored on 8 of them. He’s been an excellent finisher at the rim during his college career, and he’s doing so this year (albeit on limited volume). Grady hit 62% or better at the rim in 3 of 4 seasons at Davidson, and is at 75% this season at UK. UK even has some natural halfcourt actions that can create space for Grady to cut. Oscar Tshiebwe is a frequent screener for Sahvir Wheeler, and Keion Brooks has been a frequent and capable midrange shooter (50% on 2 pt jumpers!). These actions vacate the post, and give space for Grady to slip behind and finish at the rim.
Kentucky can’t just depend on Oscar Tshiebwe to carry the offensive load, and needs to get more creative in unlocking the scoring capabilities of Kellan Grady. Grady’s never been a great creator off the dribble, but using off-ball movement with him can stress the defense, creating open shots for Grady or teammates.
#2: Refine TyTy Washington’s role
Washington seems like a bit of a bellwether for UK this season. He scored in double figures in each of UK’s 7 wins but just 15 combined points in the two losses on 6-21 shooting. I think a large part of the problem stems from the types of shots that Washington was getting against higher quality opposition.
Again Synergy data can help us out. Against Notre Dame and Duke, Washington took 21 shots: 12 dribble jumpers, 5 layups, 2 catch and shoot jumpers and 2 runners. He hit 4 dribble jumpers (all twos), 1 layup, and 1 runner. The shooting off the dribble and on layups is a bit worse than you’d expect given his season long shooting (50% on twos off the dribble, 52% on layups), but Washington clearly struggles a bit to finish given his lack of elite athleticism and unexceptional size (6’3”) for a college shooting guard. What I don’t quite understand is why UK doesn’t use Washington for what he is: the best catch and shoot threat on their roster.
Flash back to Big Blue Madness, where TyTy won the three point shootout over CJ Fredrick. Fredrick is unambigously one of the great shooters in college basketball who hit 46% from deep last season so beating him at his best skill is no small feat. Per Synergy, Washington is now 11-30 (37%) in his brief college career from three, but 11-24 (46%) on catch and shoot threes and 0-6 off the dribble. This isn’t inflated by hitting lots of open threes but few guarded ones, either; Washington hits 44% of his guarded catch and shoots three and 47% unguarded.
The problem is that Washington is infrequently used as a catch and shoot threat. Of his 105 shots only 24 (23%) are catch and shoot opportunities. He has taken 36 jumpers off the dribble, 24 shots at the rim, and 20 runners, but he doesn’t have an eFG% on any of those that’s even close to his catch and shoot eFG%, Keion Brooks and Bryce Hopkins take a higher percentage of their shots in catch and shoot situations than Washington does, and they are not in his league as a shooting threat.
Kentucky starts two terrific outside shooters in Kellan Grady and TyTy Washington, but the one who can score in more ways gets used as only a catch and shoot threat (Grady) and the one who’s better on catch and shoot gets asked to create off the dribble (Washington). I’d like to see Kentucky change how they use each, with Grady featured in more off-ball action instead of just waiting in the corner, and Washington used as an outside sniper more than a creator of midrange pullups. Not only would this make better use of the standout skills of each player, it might create better spacing in UK’s halfcourt offense. This could accentuate the finishing skills of UK’s interior players while mitigating some of the issues caused when defenders sag off Sahvir Wheeler, and make UK more consistent against better opposition.