Fun facts about a not-so-fun season for UK
Kentucky's season has mercifully ended, and now we can look back some odd statistical quirks that made this one for the ages
My goal in writing each article is to go beyond just stating numbers and link them to some kind of insight about what is happening, what could be happening, or what should be happening. This will be a different kind of article today, however. The season is over, nothing else is going to happen, and I’ve said enough about what already happened. In this article, I’m just going to point out some statistics about the season that I found interesting. Some are positive, some are depressing, most are random, and nearly all will be blissfully insight-less. When you’re done reading this article, I want your palate to be cleansed of the sour taste from a losing season. Hopefully, some of these will just make you say “Huh, that’s weird!”
This is the 6th season in a row where Kentucky had a player listed at 6’8” or taller hit 38% or more of their threes and take at least 1 three per game. The sweet shooting bigs have been Derek Willis (2016 & 2017), Wenyen Gabriel (2018), PJ Washington (2019), Nate Sestina (2020) and Olivier Sarr this year. All except Willis in 2017 hit 40% or more. Sarr hit 12 of 26 threes in 25 games (46.2%)
This is the first season under Calipari where UK had 3 players hit 38% or more from three on at least 1 attempt per game (min 10 games). Sarr was at 46%, Dontaie Allen was at 40%, and Davion Mintz at 38%.
Dontaie Allen and Davion Mintz each took at least 60% of their shots from three this season. That’s the first time since 2016 that a UK duo has done that (Derek Willis & Mychal Mulder).
For the 2nd season in a row, all of UK’s guards with at least 100 FGA (Mintz, Askew, Boston, Allen) had a higher 3 point FG% in transition than in halfcourt. That had never happened under Cal before last season. Mintz (46% in transition, 33% halfcourt), Askew (33% vs 26%), Boston (36% vs 28%), and Allen (44% vs 38%) were all better in the open court. The same was true of Maxey (36% vs 26%), Quickley (52% vs 40%), and Hagans (30% vs 24%) last season.
Overall Kentucky wasn’t a very good shooting team, but there were about as many quality shooters on this team as there have been under Calipari. The tradition of having at least one shooting big lives on as well, although next season might be a stretch in that department. One has to wonder if UK should have tried to run more the last 2 season given that so many of the perimeter players were much better from three in those situations…
This season Kentucky ranked 136th nationally in the percentage of their offensive possessions that ended in a steal, but 271st in the percentage that ended in a deadball turnover (traveling, offensive foul, out of bounds, etc.). Since 2013 that have ranked lower in deadball turnovers than steals every season; in 2016, UK allowed the 4th fewest steals but was 220th in non-steal turnovers. An inability to handle the ball is rarely the problem for Kentucky; it’s illegal screens, traveling, and the like that usually hurts them.
UK opponents hit 74.1% of their free throws this season, by far the highest mark against a Calipari team at UK. Maybe the Cats could work on free throw defense?
This was the first season under Calipari that non UK player had at least half of their made baskets at the rim be assisted. You weren’t just imagining that there were fewer alley-oops. The lack of dribble penetration meant fewer easy baskets down low for the bigs.
Devin Askew, Davion Mintz, BJ Boston, and Dontaie Allen combined to have 1 basket at the rim that was assisted after 10 seconds had passed on the shot clock this season. UK’s offense didn’t feature a lot of chances for the guards to cut to the basket outside of transition opportunities. Given that none of the guards were good finishers, asking them to beat a defender off the dribble to get to the rim may have been a bit much.
Keion Brooks was a Swiss Army knife this season. He was 3rd in the assist rate (percentage of teammates’ makes he assisted on when on the court) at 15.7%, the highest assist rate at UK for a non-guard under Calipari. He was 2nd in total rebound rate (% of available rebounds he grabbed) at 15.6%; he is the shortest (6’7”) and lightest (205 lbs) player to have that high of a rebound rate under Calipari. If Brooks returns to UK next season, he’ll be able to fit in any role needed on offense. If he can develop his 3 point shot, he could be an All-SEC player.
BJ Boston turned the ball over on only 10.1% of the possessions he used (FGAs + turnovers + assists + FT possessions), the 2nd lowest rate of any Wildcat under Calipari (Anthony Davis, 9.9% in 2012). While BJ Boston struggled to shoot (outside of a late season flurry from deep), he was a positive contributor in most other little ways for Kentucky.
Jacob Toppin had an effective FG% of 56% during the last 10 seconds of the shot clock, the highest on UK’s team. Toppin was the only Wildcat who was better late in the clock than in transition or earlier in halfcourt. He was an elite finisher at the rim, from midrange, and from three in limited opportunities late.
Jacob Toppin played 17 minutes per game and scored 5.3 points per game. His minutes were the highest for any non-top 100 recruit under Calipari in their freshman or sophomore year, and the points are the 2nd highest (Darnell Dodson, 6.0 in 2010). Toppin wasn’t even expected to play this season after transferring in from Rhode Island, but ended up being more of a contributor than almost any recruit without an elite pedigree under Calipari.
In the coming weeks and months we’ll see what the Kentucky roster holds for 2021-2022. The world will almost surely be in a better place at that point than it has been over the past year, and hopefully college basketball can feel more routine and less like an escape. I’ll continue writing some articles this offseason, mostly focusing on projecting improvement for returning players and analyzing any transfers. If you have any interesting things you’d like me to tackle, feel free to drop me a line. I’m very grateful to all of my subscribers and hope you’ve enjoyed some of my work this year.
Thanks,
Sean Vinsel