Early season observations on the Wildcats
The record stands at 1-1, but there's plenty to be positive about for Cats fans
It’s a common saying in college basketball that the best way to follow up a tough 8 point loss to a rival is with a 40 point demolition of a far more outmatched team. Kentucky certainly ended the first week of the new season on a high note, and no doubt much of the fanbase is in high spirits. Looking beyond the box score, there’s even more to be positive about than many fans realize.
In today’s article, I’m going to quote a number of stats from specific situations. These are all publicly available by using my new Stats Engine tool. You, my faithful reader, can follow along as I reveal some interesting stats and trends through two games. One important note…unless otherwise noted, I’m excluding garbage time. The Robert Morris win was full of that, so the totals I quot e may vary from what’s expected.
Oscar Tshiebwe has been a man among boys
Oscar’s 2 games as a Wildcat have already been record setting, with back to back 20 rebound games. As impressive as his press clipping have been, some of the underlying data is even better. He’s grabbed 38% of Kentucky’s misses when he’s on the court, and 31% of the opponent’s misses. Kentucky has never had a single rebounder who grabbed that volume. As an entire team, UK has only exceeded a 38% offensive rebound rate for a season 3 times before this season.
His active mitts aren’t just empty stat padding, either. Kentucky is +32 in 96 possessions that Oscar has played, including +1 in 51 vs Duke. When Oscar sits, UK has been outscored by 13 points in just 29 possessions. This excludes garbage time vs Robert Morris, but even including it UK only improves to a -1 scoring margin without Tshiebwe in 2 games.
He’s making an impact on UK’s offense, beyond just rebounding. When Oscar plays, UK takes more of their shots at the rim (where they’re pretty effective) and is more selective from three, hitting a blistering 48%. When the big guy sits, UK doesn’t get to the rim as often and have to force more shots from three, knocking their accuracy down to a mere 33%.
Even more stunning is Tshiebwe’s impact on defense. When he’s in the game, opponents hit 46% of their twos, including 59% at the rim. But when he sits, opponents can’t miss! Their 2pt FG% is a staggering 86%, including 89% at the rim!
Foul trouble hasn’t been a major concern through 2 games for Oscar, but it’s something to watch. Kentucky needs to shore up minutes when he rests.
The top of the rotation is leading the way, while the bench is reliant on outside shots
Through 2 games, Kentucky is +19 in 125 non-garbage time possessions. UK has played at least 4 of their starters together for about half of those possessions (63). During that time, UK is +19. That’s right, the entire positive margin for UK outside of garbage time has occurred with 4 or more starters on the court.
UK has 8 lineups who have outscored opponents this season. Of these, 3 have 4 or more starters and are in the numbers above. The other 5 all feature 2 or more bench players. These UK lineups have relived heavily on 2 key factors: each has hit 100% of their threes and rebounded 100% of opponent misses. Conversely, UK has 9 lineups who have been outscored. These lineups have combined to hit precisely zero three pointers this season.
It’s still very early and these trends can change dramatically, but it should be taken as a very positive sign that UK has molded a roster heavy in newcomers into a starting lineup that can establish superiority. The Wildcats will need to either find some consistency off the bench or shorten the rotation, as bench minutes can’t turn into a game of chance focused solely on outside shooting.
More work needed on offensive structure, but halfcourt D is strong
Longtime readers of mine know that two things have been true for Kentucky through the Calipari era: they shoot too many midrange shots on offense, and play tenacious defense. Both are still true this season despite the turnover in the roster and on the coaching staff.
UK’s offense this season has been buoyed by great outside shooting, with the Wildcats htiting 44% from three. That’s helping make up for their continued infatuation with 2 point jumpers. TO my everlasting chagrin, about 36% of UK’s shots have been 2 pointers away from the rim this season. That’s right in line with last season’s 37%, which was the 12th highest frequency of taking those shots per hoop-math.com. It’s pretty unlikely that UK can sustain hitting 44% of their threes given that Baylor led the nation last season at 41%. UK’s been unlucky to hit only 26% of their 2 point jumpers this season, but they only made 34% last season so there’s not a ton of improvement likely there to offset a possible dropoff from three. UK is likely to face some offensive decline unless they can derive a higher portion of offense from high-value shots at the rim or from three.
UK’s defense in the early season has been a pleasant surprise, give the roster shuffling. Most notably, UK has been absolutely suffocating when they are able to set their defense after a made basket. UK has allowed only 88 points per 100 possessions in these situations, while scoring 122 per 100 themselves. This isn’t just due to beating up on Robert Moris, either; UK held Duke to just 79 pts/100 poss following a make by the Wildcats. Where Duke made their hay was when they started a possession in transition (after defensive rebounds or steals). Kentucky was absolutely good enough in halfcourt defense to beat the Blue Devils, despite the postgame headlines of how Paolo Banchero and Trevor Keels shredded the Cats.
There’s a lot to be positive about so far this season for UK, and this upcoming stretch of games should allow the Wildcats to further gel and solidify their rotation. I’ll keep monitoring these trends, and you can follow along with the stats engine. If you see anything interesting there, post it in the comments or on Twitter @HoopsInsight! Thanks for reading, and make sure to subscribe!