Could small samples find a good lineup for Kentucky?
4 games isn't much to go on, and a lot of lineups have barely played together, but 1 quartet of Wildcats has shown promise
They say good things come in small packages. In Kentucky’s case, good things may come in small samples. So far this season there hasn’t been much positive to write about the Wildcats, other than “they are all young or new and are bound to get better”. But what if there were some lineups (or 3 and 4 man combinations) who were already playing well, albeit in very limited time? Is that something you might be interested in? If you are reading this story the answer is probably yes, so let’s get to it.
A productive perimeter trio
I try to focus on positive things when I write my articles. Player X has been great in a certain situation, or a certain pairing of Player Y and Player Z brings out the best in each. This has been a trying 4 games for Kentucky, as there’s been very little positive. But I was sifting through some data and found something interesting.
Kentucky has mostly been alternating Devin Askew and Davion Mintz at point guard this season, with Askew playing 132 possessions by himself, Mintz 79, and the two sharing time for 56 possessions. Kentucky has turned the ball over on 31% of possessions when Askew is in the game as the sole point guard, but only 20% when Mintz is running the show. Honestly 20% is still too high; that is a higher turnover rate than any Kentucky team has had under Coach Cal. But when Kentucky plays Mintz and Askew together, the team’s turnover rate drops to 18%. That’s more like it, and a Kentucky that turns the ball over at that rate can be pretty good. It’s only a 56 possessions sample, but UK has an adjusted margin of +24 points per 100 possessions with a dual point guard look compared to just +7 overall this season.
But the title of this section referenced a perimeter trio, and I only mentioned 2 players so far. While Askew and Mintz have helped steady the ship for UK when playing together, the offense is still a bit lacking. Kentucky only has an effective FG% of 49% when those two are together, up from 45% overall but still not good. The issue is neither player is a very dynamic scorer around the rim; they combine to take just 33% of their shots in the paint and hit a horrid 40%. But Kentucky has another perimter player who can get to the paint and finish very well: Terrence Clarke. Clarke takes 39% of his shots in the paint and has hit a dazzling 76% so far this season.
The three perimeter players compliment each other nicely. Askew and Mintz do the ballhandling and look for outside shots off of Clarke drives. The two point guards have combined to hit 37% of their threes alongside Clarke, and take over half of their shots from deep when he’s on the court with them. When Clarke plays alongside Mintz and Askew, he has a ridiculous 78% effective FG% . That includes 2-2 on threes against Georgia Tech, with both makes assisted by one of the point guards.
This trio has combined to play 42 possessions together; that’s not much, but it’s not nothing. They have an adjusted margin of +29 points per 100 possessions together. That’s the type of adjusted margin a top 5 team puts together. When these three play together, Kentucky improves in several relevant stats:
They have an effective FG% of 53%, vs 45% for the season
They turn the ball over on 14% of their possessions, vs 25% for the season
They assist on 56% of their made shots, vs 47% for the season
The commit a foul on 19% of opponent possessions, vs 24% for the season
Kentucky seems to be at their best (at least on the perimeter) when playing Askew, Mintz, and Clarke together. I think they should get much more time together.
Interior defense can complement them
When you have a perimeter trio that can click, you need to add in some solid interior defense. Kentucky has 2 main options for big men right now: Olivier Sarr and Isaiah Jackson. When it comes to pairing one of them with the trio of Mintz/Askew/Clarke, the data is pretty clear that Jackson is by far the best choice.
When Sarr is in the game alongside our perimter trio, opponent feast in the paint. Here’s a simple chart to show opponent frequency and accruracy when Sarr is in:
The green color means opponents are shooting much better than average in those areas. That’s a lot of green! Now here’s the same chart with Jackson in:
I’m primarily concerned with the shooting in the paint, and opponents hit only 56% in the paint with Jackson in, compared to 71% with Sarr.
This isn’t only happening when our favorite perimeter trio is in the game…it’s been the case all season. Here are the opponent FG% in the paint according to which UK big is in the game:
Sarr only: 79% (11-14)
Sarr & Jackson both: 67% (33-49)
Jackson only: 50% (12-24)
Isaiah Jackson seems to be a much more effective interior defender so far this season. This aligns with some points I made before the season when I noted that Sarr had a poor block rate last season for Wake Forest. I don’t have stats for Wake Forest with and without Sarr last season, but they were the 38th worst team in D-1 at defending the rim, allowing opponents to hit 64% of shots there. The data so far this season indicates that Sarr is not an effective defender at the rim, and Isaiah Jackson is much better. I beleieve Jackson is a great option to play alongside our perimeter trio, and the numbers back it up. They’ve only played 28 possessiosn together but have outscored opponents by +16 points in that time. They were +13 in 17 possessions against Georgia Tech, including anice stretch from the 14:19 mark of the 2nd half until 12:09 remained where the outscored the Yellow Jackets 5-0 with our fearless four joined by BJ Boston. They hounded the Tech guards and forced turnovers, while moving the ball well on offense for open shots. That’s what Kentucky can be.
Who’s the 5th man?
For now, the best option to play alongside them might be BJ Boston. This would create a true 4-out look and create space for Jackson on offense to make quick drives. Unless Kentucky is playing a team with a lot of size, they should be able to hide Boston (the weakest defender of this 5) on someone. You could talk me into Cam’ron Fletcher playing as an undersized power forward with this group as well, although I like Boston’s offensive creativity to make the Cats harder to defend.
I think the real key for Kentucky is getting Keion Brooks back as the power forward in this lineup. Brooks was a solid rebounder and active defender last season, but he didn’t have much of an offensive role. As I wrote this offseason, however, power forwards who returned as sophomores under Calipari have improved their outside shooting, both in frequency and accuracy. If the rangy and hardworking 6’7” Brooks can become a spot-up threat, he can feast on open looks playing alongside 2 point guards and a dangerous slasher. Kentucky should be good enough on defense and rebounding with a Jackson/Brooks frontcourt. Call me crazy, but I think there’s a good shot that a month or two from now we’ll think Calipari is a genius for playing 2 point guards, making Isaiah Jackson the starting center, and developing Keion Brooks as a shooting threat.