Can Sahvir Wheeler be the lead guard UK needs?

The pint-sized playmaker has his strengths and weaknesses. What do he and UK's other experienced backcourt players bring to the table?

There’s an old adage that college basketball is a guard’s game. National champions tends to have players who can excel while dominating ballhandling and decision making. Even on a Kentucky team returning national Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe in the frontcourt, their ceiling will likely have a lot to do with their backcourt play.

As a small point guard who doesn’t shoot very well, Sahvir Wheeler is a bit of a polarizing figure amoung the UK fanbase. He’s received a lot of criticism, much of which I don’t think is fair. He has clear strengths and weaknesses, and definitely has certain circumstances in which he succeeds more than others. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I’ll analyze what he does well and where he struggles, while trying to outline how UK could set him up for success. Plus, I examine what CJ Fredrick and Antonio Reeves are likely to bring based on their college experience.

Wheeler has received some unfair criticism

Most of the discussion I’ve seen and heard about Wheeler this offseason focuses on 2 key complaints: First, that UK’s offense bogged down late in the season due to him and his non-shooting, and second that he is too turnover-prone to be a great lead guard. Let’s look at the numbers and see if either of these is justified.

Over the last 6 games of last season, Kentucky’s offense was definitely worse than it was earlier in the year. Their points scored per 100 possesssions fell by over 7 (115.5 prior, 108.2 over last 6). However, it’s difficult to point at Wheeler as much of the problem. His individual stats were as good or better than previously:

• Last 6 games: 48.4% eFG%, took 21% of UK’s shots, scored 14.0 pts/40 min; assisted on 33.9% of teammate baskets, 7.2 assists and 3.7 turnovers per 40 min

• Previous: 46.3% eFG%, took 20% of UK’s shots, scored 13.0 pts/40min; assisted on 34.4% of teammate baskets, 8.6 assists and 4.0 turnovers per 40 min

Wheeler had a worse FG% at the rim late in the season, but hit much better from three. Overall he was a little more efficient, turned it over at a lower rate, and assisted on a virtually identicla percentage of teammate baskets. His assists dropped, but that’s due to his teammates missing shots. Wheeler isn’t perfect (I’ll discuss his strengths aand weaknesses shortly), but to point to him as a problem late in UK’s season just isn’t backed up by evidence.

Second, Sahvir Wheeler wasn’t exactly turnover-prone. Yes, he committed 3 turnovers per game and 3.9 per 40 minutes, but those are pretty good numbers for a player who handled the ball as much as he did. Last season 7 players averaged greater than 6 assists per game, with Wheeler at 6.9. Wheeler averaged the fewest turnovers per game of that group at 3.0, and the best assist:turnover ratio at 2.3. Nobody racked up as many Wheeler did while limiting turnovers like he did. If you drop the threshold to 5.5 assists per game, only 3 players had a better assist: turnover ratio while also averaging double figures: Kyle Lofton of St. Bonaventure, Jamal Shead of Houston, and Andrew Nembhard of Gonzaga. If you needed a player to set up others, score a bit, and avoid turnovers, Wheeler was one of the top handful of options in college basketball last season.

That’s not to say Wheeler is an ideal point guard at all…so what are his strengths and weaknesses?

A catalyst who is dependent on spacing

The biggest difference Wheeler made for UK last season was his ability to generate transition scoring opportunities. When he was in the game, UK took 28% of their shots in transition (<10 seconds into shot clock) and had an effective FG% of 60% in transition. When he was out, UK took 21% of their shots in transition with an eFG% of 50% there. UK was a weapon in transition with him in and a liability with him out.

Wheeler was also a catalyst for more efficient scoring in halfcourt. Every teammate except Oscar Tshiebwe had a better effective FG% with Wheeler in the game than when he sat. Players also took a higher portion of shots where they were more efficient (Grady from 3, Tshiebwe at the rim, etc.). Wheeler makes his teammates better with his passing and playmaking.

Wheeler was also a surprisingly good finisher at the rim…especially for a 5’9” player. Per BartTorvik.com, Wheeler his almost 62% at the rim last season (better than Tyty Washington or Davion Mintz). And despite his rep as a non-shooter, Wheeler is reasonably competent in certain situations. He’s consistently hit about 33-35% of his catch and shoot threes in college; that’s not a great number, but it’s enough to not sink an offense. Wheeler also was surprisingly good on long jumpers last season as he hit 39% of his dribble jumpers from 17 feet to 3 point range. This was the 2nd best figure on UK among players who took 25 or more, behind Keion Brooks’ 42%. You don’t want players taking lots of 39% shots, but it’s a sign that he isn’t a complete shooting zero.

Wheeler’s shooting was acceptable when he was open, but it’s a different story when he took more contested shots. Simply put, he was pretty much a lost cause away from the rim and inside 17 feet. These shots tend to come off the dribble, and Wheeler may have some issues with footwork and shooting off the dribble. He was a ghastly 2-10 on 3’s off the dribble, 2-16 from 5 to 17 feet, and 12-33 on runners.

I mentioned before that Wheeler was a good finisher at the rim, but even that was conditional on spacing. In transition he hit 70% there; those obviously tend to have less of a defensive presence. In halfcourt offense, his effectiveness at the rim was wildly different based on the spacing offered by the lineup alongside him. The best spacing came when he had Grady and Washington as perimeter threats alongside him, and even Keion Brooks helped offer spacing by being active and fairly accurate from midrange. Combine that with the attention paid to Tshiebwe, and Wheeler was less likely to see help defenders when playing with this group. He responded by taking more shots at the rim and hitting 65% there in halfcourt, a tremendous figure. But when UK would play a non-shooting big alongside him, Wheeler’s effectiveness fell as he drove into defensive help. He hit only 50% of his rim attempts, and took them less frequently.

One suggestion I’d make for next season is to de-emphasize Wheeler/Tshiebwe pick and rolls. Wheeler was pretty poor as a pick and roll ballhandler, scoring only 0.757 points per possession per Synergy. Defenders could simply drop on him every time given his struggles shooting off the dribble, and they did. This resulted in Oscar Tshiebwe being less effective as a roll man with defenders dropping. Oscar scored fewer points per possession as a roll man (1.036) than in post-ups (1.048), cuts (1.460), or on offensive rebounds (1.157). Wheeler needs more spread floors, with Tshiebwe in the post or dunker spot, in order to be most effective.

Two transfer guards bring complementary skill sets to the UK backcourt

In Antonio Reeves and CJ Fredrick, UK has two guards who transferred in and bring very interesting skill sets. I’ve written quite a bit about Reeves, who developed into a dynamic off-the-dribble scorer and late-clock option at Illinois State. I believe Reeves is a far better pick and roll partner for Tshiebwe than Wheeler, for a couple reasons. First, Reeves has been an outstanding PnR scorer; he was rated in the 97th percentile by Synergy and scored 1.025 pts/poss there last season. Second, he’s not likely yo see the same drop coverage as Wheeler. Reeves hit 46% on midrange twos last season (37-80, per Synergy) so he’s a real threat to pull up off the dribble.

If Reeves runs pick and roll, Wheeler could still serve as a secondary playmaker off the catch. Remember that Wheeler is much more competent as a catch and shoot player than a shot creator off the dribble, so Wheeler could be suited for this. He could also attack closeouts aggressively and would likely have more space to drive off these actions.

As a cherry on top, Reeves was a 39% shooter on catch and shoot threes last season at Ilinois State, so defenders won’t be able to sag off him to help on Wheeler’s drives. Reeves also should be a solid running mate in transition for Wheeler. Reeves scored in the 86th percentile of players in transition last year per Synergy, better than any Wildcat last year except Tshiebwe and Toppin.

CJ Fredrick is an excellent candidate to fill the Kellan Grady sharpshooter role, and possibl even exceed Grady’s work. Fredrick is an absolute flamethroer of a three point shooter who hit 47% from deep across two season at Iowa. He he 42% on guarded and 46% on unguarded catch and shoot threes, plus a ridiculous 57% on threes off the dribble. There’s just no weakness in his outside shooting. Fredrick is also very good from midrange, as he hit 50% on midrange twos during his second year at Iowa. He doesn’t get to the rim much at all or finish well there, but he honestly may not need to. Fredrick should provide the spacing for a player like Wheeler to thrive in halfcourt offense, and can even serve as an effective ball mover as defenses scranble. Fredrick had an assist:turnover ratio of nearly 3:1 at Iowa, so he can move the ball to open teammates without turning it over if need be.

It’s not hard to imagine Kentucky creating plenty of spacing with Reeves and Fredrick able to shoot from deep, Wheeler looking to create off the dribble, and a low post threat like Oscar Tshiebwe ready should defenders leave him. There may be certain lineups with less spacing where Wheeler is pretty ineffective; however. In those cases, UK will need a primary ballhandler with some more size and ability to operate in traffic. Those hopes will fall to freshman Cason Wallace, who will be the subject of my next article (along with fellow freshman Chris Livington).