Breaking down the comeback
Down 9 and without their head coach due to an ejection, Kentucky staged a comeback to win in double OT vs Mississippi State. How did it happen?
With just over 9 minutes remaining in Starkville, MS, the Kentucky Wildcats were on the brink of collapse. Their head coach had just been ejected and the team trailed by 9 points against a decidedly average Mississippi State team. But by the time the team plane pulled up its wheels and bid adieu to StarkVegas, the Cats had completed a comeback to win in double overtime. How did the Cats pull it off? Does this mean they saved their season? In this edition of Hoops Insight, I look into what powered this comeback.
First, let’s dig into two theories that have gottena lot of coverage in media reports about the game, but didn’t actually drive that much change:
Theory #1: Kentucky won because Dontaie Allen started hitting threes late.
It sure felt like Kentucky was carried by the homegrown hero late in the game, didn’t it? After Calipari’s ejection, Allen went 4-6 from three…that’s huge, right? Except Kentucky as a team was 6-11 after the ejection from three, and 5-10 before it. The team had a hot shooting night before the ejection and kept it up after. Nothing much changed.
Theory #2: Benching Brandon Boston and Isaiah Jackson spurred the comeback.
I can’t speak to any psychological effects on the rest of the team, but there’s not a ton of evidence to say that benching these players dramatically changed UK’s fortunes. Yes, they weren’t shooting well (5-17 combined on the night), but UK’s team shooting percentages from two and three didn’t change much after the ejection and their benching. Before the ejection, UK had a FG% of 41.3%, and after the ejection that went all the way up to…41.9%. Neither player had turnover or foul problems, and they combined for 5 blocks, 5 steals, and 6 of UK’s 8 free throw attempts. There may be other things the coaches didn’t like, but removing their cold shooting didn’t suddenly turn the Wildcats into a drastically different shooting team.
So, what made the difference?
There are three key areas where UK made improvements after Calipari was ejected, and these spurred the comeback:
Kentucky quit turning the ball over so much.
Prior to the ejection, UK turned it over on 27% of their possessions. Afterwards, that dropped to 12%. The improvement was across all players. Askew & Mintz turned it over on 11% of possessions before the ejection and 7% after, and the frontcourt of Sarr/Toppin/Ware improved from 10% to 3%. This was a HUGE factor, as it ensured Kentucky had actual scoring opportunities.
Kentucky shifted some shots from midrange to three pointers
As I mentioned before, Kentucky’s shooting percentages from various areas of the court didn’t change much before and after the ejection. Focusing on halfcourt offense (defined as shots coming after 10 seconds have elapsed), Kentucky shot:
100% in the paint, 15% from midrange, and 57% from three BEFORE the ejection
100% in the paint, 20% from midrange, and 50% from three AFTER the ejection
What changed was the shot distribution. Here is where Kentucky took halfcourt shots:
4% in the paint, 71% from midrange, 25% from three BEFORE the ejection
14% in the pain, 48% from midrange, 38% from three AFTER the ejection
The shift away from midrange shots into shots in the paint and from three helped tremendously, since Kentucky couldn’t hit a midrange shot to save their lives.
Between points #1 and #2 Kentucky’s offense improved from scoring 0.84 points per possessions before the ejection to 1.23 after. That goes a long way to erasing a 9 point deficit, but it wouldn’t have been complete without…
Mississippi State fell apart early in the shot clock
On shots in the first 20 seconds of the shot clock, Mississippi State had an effective Fg% of 55% during the first 31 minutes of the game. This fell to a horrendous 27% during the final 9 minutes and both overtime. This is a bit odd, since the Bulldogs have been very solid all season early in the shot clock. Late in the game they showed some poor shot selection, settling for contested jumpers and drives with plenty of time on the shot clock. Kentucky did force some of this by playing strong on-ball defense, but there was clearly some lack of poise on the Bulldogs part. Kentucky also was a bit fortunate that Mississippi State completely botched two solid transition attempts, including a 3-on-1 break, and got zero points from either. Kentucky’s ability to lock in and force bad shots is a real thing, but they also benefitted from poor game management on Mississippi State’s part.
So what does this mean going forward?
I’m probably on the more pessimistic end of the spectrum when speculating on how much this performance can herald real improvement for UK. The offensive improvements of limiting turnovers and reducing midrange jumpers are very good things, but I haven’t seen much evidence that these will last. Kentucky has been a high turnover team this season, and always takes a huge portion of shots from midrange. I doubt UK will hit over half of their threes in many games, and the continuing inability to get shots in the paint is going to be a real problem.
The more troubling thing for me is that:
A) Mississippi State allows all their opponents to score a ton from three, but
B) Kentucky took fewer threes (as a percentage of total shots) than any Mississippi State opponent this season
The Bulldogs had a clear weakness, and Kentucky really didn’t do much to exploit it. UK had a tremendously hot shooting night, but still shot fewer than 30% of their shots from three. Mississippi State allows opponents to shoot over 43% of their shots from there! Even post-ejection, Kentucky didn’t even take 40% of their shots from there. That concerns me inasmuch as this UK team doesn’t have clear strengths to lean on, and is not showing an ability to exploit opponent weaknesses.
How does UK match up with Vanderbilt?
Vanderbilt is not good. That being said, they do have some things going for them:
They are good at free throws!
They shoot a bajillion threes (think Auburn 2 years ago)
They have a very good PG in Scotty Pippen, Jr.
If the games come down to a fistfight between coaches, they have Jerry Stackhouse
Vanderbilt has zero interior defense. If Kentucky can’t get to the rim and score against this team, they won’t have a better chance all season. Vanderbilt’s offense almost entirely runs through Pippen as well. When he’s on the court, 56% of Vanderbilt’s made shots are either by him or assisted by him; that’s the highest rate for any major conference player and the 2nd highest in D-1 by my math. Devin Askew and Davion Mintz will be in for a battle trying to contain him.
Kentucky should be able to force turnovers and block shots against the Commodores. Kentucky needs to turn this into transition shots that they convert, which gives them some breathing room in case the offense bogs down. That should be the path to victory….unless Dontaie Allen hits 7 more threes!