2020 NCAA Tourney Sim - Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Results
We never got to see the 2020 NCAA Tournament play out in real life, but we can use our imaginations and some data to simulate what might have happened. To simulate the tournament, I'm using:
Joe Lunardi's last Bracketology projection of seeding and regions
KenPom.com's team efficiency ratings
Without further ado, let's look at the results of our simulated 2020 NCAA Tournament!
Sweet 16: No Pretenders Allowed
In the Sweet 16 matchups, several blue-blood and power-conference programs flexed their muscle in sending home some upstart teams looking to shake up the established pecking order in college basketball
In the Midwest Region, traditional powerhouses Kansas and Kentucky outlasted lower seeds Auburn and Iowa to set up a matchup of the bluest of bluebloods. #1 seed Kansas was pushed by #5 seed Auburn but got 20 points from Devon Dotson to overcome an Auburn team which saw its entire starting lineup score in double figures. Auburn was led by freshman sensation Isaac Okoro's 13, but the Tigers missed the front end of two one-and-ones in the final 3 minutes and fell 75-71.
#2 seed Kentucky got late game heroics from freshman guard Tyrese Maxey, including a runner with 11 seconds left to put the Wildcats up for good and a steal to prevent #6 seed Iowa from getting a chance for the win. The Cats prevailed 82-81 behind Maxey's 16 points, with Nick Richards and Immanuel Quickley chipping in 15 each. Luka Garza again topped the Hawkeyes in scoring with 21, but fell just short in the upset bid.
In the West region, #4 seed Maryland toppled the #1 seed Dayton Flyers 85-81 to advance to the Elite Eight. Dayton's star Obi Toppin had 23 but was outdueled but Maryland's Jalen Smith, who put up 28 to lead the Terrapins to the Elite Eight for the first time since their title-winning 2002 season. Anthony Cowan chipped in 17 for Maryland, and Aaron Wiggins contributed 13.
#6 Penn State had a relatively easy path to the Sweet 16, beating an 11 seed and 14 seed, but their task got much tougher as they faced the #2 seed Florida State Seminoles. Florida State proved too tough, as they cruised to an 85-76 victory. Florida State's leading scorer Devin Vassell was held in check with 5 points, but Trent Forrest stepped up with 14 points to lead a balanced Seminoles attack. Lamar Stevens had 22 for Penn State, but was only 6-20 from the field against the Seminoles length.
The South region had seen the most chaos in the first 2 rounds, with #9 seed Oklahoma sending home #1 seed Gonzaga and #6 seed BYU sneaking past #3 seed Seton Hall. Both of their runs would end in this round, however.
#4 seed Oregon got 21 from Payton Pritchard including 4-4 on three pointers, while Will Richardson chipped in 14 for the Ducks as they won 76-71 over the Oklahoma Sooners. Oklahoma's big man Brady Manek had been a standout, but was largely held in check by the smaller Ducks as he put up only 12 points after posting 18 and 16 in the first 2 rounds.
#2 seed San Diego State had steamrolled through their competition in the first 2 rounds, and again got a fairly comfortable win as they prevailed 82-74 over the #6 seed BYU Cougars. The Aztecs' star guard Malachi Flynn put up 20 points, including 4-4 on free throws in the final minute to keep the Cougars at bay. BYU's Jake Toolson could only manage 8 points, well below his 15 ppg average. This is the Aztecs first ever appearance in the Elite Eight, but they are looking for even more.
Finally, the East region saw 2 back-and-forth games as its top 4 seeds collided. First, #1 Baylor made a late comeback after trailing much of the game, with a MaCio Teague 3 finally putting the Bears in front with 35 seconds left and 2 Jared Butler free throws icing a 76-72 win over #4 seed Louisville. The Cardinals led for much of the game behind Jordan Nwora and David Johnson, who combined for 35 points, but lost Johnson to fouls with 1:45 left and couldn't hang on for the win.
The #3 seed Michigan State Spartans slipped past the #2 seed Creighton Bluejays 73-72 in an extremely close game. Neither team led by more than 4 points at any time during the second half, and they took turns trading the lead in the final two minutes. Creighton had a chance to win at the buzzer after Cassius Winston shockingly missed two free throws, but a Ty-Shon Alexander jumper was off the mark. Winston's 17 led the Spartans, who are looking for a repeat Final Four appearance, while Alexander's 16 paced the Bluejays.
So, our Elite Eight matchups are:
Midwest: #1 seed Kansas vs #2 seed Kentucky
West: #4 seed Maryland vs #2 seed Florida State
South: #4 seed Oregon vs #2 seed San Diego Stat
East: #1 seed Baylor vs #3 seed Michigan State
Elite Eight: A Blue Blood and 3 Newcomers
In an overwhelmingly strange season of college basketball, it seems only fitting that the Final Four can be described as both surprising, and not surprising at the same time. Of the Final Four teams, 2 were not ranked in the preseason poll, and only 1 was in the preseason top 15. However, all four finished in the top 6 in the polls, and 3 of the 4 spent time at #1 this season.
First, the #1 seed Kansas Jayhawks took the Midwest region title by sneaking past the #2 seed Kentucky Wildcats 82-81. Kansas was led by Devon Dotson with 20, but the story of the game was the low post matchup between Kansas' Udoka Azubuike and Kentucky's Nick Richards. Richards came out on top, outscoring Azubuike 17-15 and drawing the Jayhawk big man's 5th foul with 2 minutes left, but Dotson took over down the stretch to lead the Jayhawks to the win. Kansas' Marcus Garrett did a tremendous job containing Kentucky's Immanuel Quickley, who was held to 11 points (his lowest scoring total since January 29th). Tyrese Maxey chipped in 16 for the Wildcats, including a 3 pointer in the dying seconds to bring the final margin to 1.
In the West region, Leonard Hamilton made his first Final Four as a head coach by leading the Florida State Seminoles to a 79-75 win over their former ACC rivals, the Maryland Terrapins. Trent Forrest paced the Seminoles' balanced attack with 14 points, while Devin Vassell chipped in 11 to help the Seminoles make their first Final Four since 1972. Maryland's senior guard Anthony Cowan put up 19 to lead the Terrapins, and sophomore big man Jalen Smith put up 18 of his own, but it wasn't enough to keep their dream season alive. Smith did get the best of fellow NBA prospect Patrick Williams, holding the Seminole freshman to just 8 points and blocking 3 of his shots, but the defensive pressure of Florida State forced Maryland into 19 turnovers.
In the South region, the #2 seed San Diego State Aztecs keep proving that they are for real as they advanced to the Final Four for the first time with an 89-82 victory over the #4 seed Oregon Ducks. Yanni Wetzel paced the Aztecs with 17 in the win, while Malachi Flynn and Matt Mitchell each chipped in 15 points. Flynn and Mitchell combined to go 5-5 from the free throw line in the final minute to extend a 2 point lead to the final margin. Oregon was again paced by their standout senior guard Payton Pritchard with 18 point, but Pritchard had a costly turnover late to keep the Ducks from closing the gap.
In the East region, the #1 seed Baylor Bears cruised into their first Final Four since 1950 with a 78-67 win over the #3 seed Michigan State Spartans. MaCio Teague had 18 for the Bears, who hit 7 of 12 three pointers to offset an 11 for 20 night at the free throw line. Cassius Winston put up 18 for the Spartans, but saw his teammates struggle mightily against the Baylor defenders with no other Spartan scoring more than 11 points.
With that, the Final Four matchups are set. It will be:
#1 seed Kansas vs #2 seed Florida State
#2 seed San Diego State vs #1 seed Baylor
Kansas is undoubtedly the most established program remaining, with 15 Final Four appearances dwarfing the combined 3 of the others (Florida State 1972, Baylor 1948 & 1950). However, all 4 programs have been near the top of college basketball this season. San Diego State was the last undefeated team, Baylor won 23 games in a row (including a win at Kansas) before losing to the Jayhawks on Feb 22, Florida State won the ACC title, and Kansas finished the regular season #1 in the pools with a 16 game winning streak.
Check back tomorrow night as we crown one of the four remaining teams as our champion!