2020 NCAA Tournament Simulation - First Weekend Results
We never got to see the 2020 NCAA Tournament play out in real life, but we can use our imaginations and some data to simulate what might have happened. To simulate the tournament, I'm using:
Joe Lunardi's last Bracketology projection of seeding and regions
KenPom.com's team efficiency ratings
Without further ado, let's look at the results of our simulated 2020 NCAA Tournament!
The Play-In Games
The 16 seed play-in games saw Boston University top Robert Morris 66-59, and Prairie View A&M record their first ever NCAA Tournament victory by edging past North Carolina Central 66-65. The BU Terriers advanced to face Dayton, while Prairie View would take on Gonzaga.
Both 12 seed play-in teams came in to the tournament on a roll, with Texas had come in having won 5 of 6 and Richmond having won 9 of 10. The power conference Longhorns pulled out the win 69-60 behind 15 points from Matt Coleman III and 14 from Andrew Jones. The Longhorns drew a matchup against 5 seed Butler in the next round.
11 seed UCLA also was on a hot streak, having won 7 of 8 under 1st year coach Mick Cronin. Junior forward Chris Smith kept the Bruins alive by hitting 2 free throws with 2 seconds left to push UCLA past NC State 76-75. UCLA was led by Smith and big man Jalen Hill with 14 and 13 respectively, to offset 16 points by the Wolfpack's Jericole Hellems. UCLA moves on to face 6 seed Penn State.
First Round: Most Big Names Survive
In our simulated first round, there were generally a lack of big upsets. The historical 5-12 upsets were nowhere to be found, and only 4 double digit seeds won their first round games. There were some near-misses, and some standout individual performances, however.
The first round in the Midwest Region was lacking in the typical NCAA Tournament drama. No game was decided by fewer than 5 points, and the only "upset" saw 9 seed Marquette upend 8 seed Houston 80-74 behind 27 points from scoring dynamo Markus Howard.
Only 3 other games were within single digits. 7 seed Providence toppled 10 seed Arizona St. 68-60, with 4 Friars in double figures led by Luwane Pipkins' 12 points. Kentucky outlasted upset-minded 15 seed North Dakota State 77-72. Immanuel Quickley led the Wildcats with 19 points, while a trio (Nick Richards, Tyrese Maxey, and Ashton Hagans) each put up 12 points. The premier individual effort of this region saw Iowa's Luka Garza put up 29 to power the Hawkeyes past East Tennessee State 74-65.
The other first round games in the Midwest were blowouts:
#1 Kansas 78, #16 Siena 63
#4 Wisconsin 75, #13 North Texas 52
#5 Auburn 72, #12 Liberty 61
#3 Duke 75, #14 Belmont 59
The West Region brought its share of dramatic finishes, however, with 2 buzzer beaters and another 1 point game.
Upstart 14 seed Hofstra topped the favored 3 seed Villanova Wildcats with senior guard Desure Buie capping a 21 point performance with a 3 pointer as the horn sounded to advance the Flying Dutchmen 76-75. Tareq Coburn led Hofstra with 24, while Villanova was led by Saddiq Bey with 19.
After UCLA won their play-in game by 1 point, the tables were turned by Penn State who got a Myreon Jones jumper in the dying seconds to put and end to UCLA's season, 74-73. Lamar Stevens had 22 to lead the Nittany Lions, while UCLA's Tyger Campbell had 13.
#10 Utah State kept the drama going as they escaped with a win over #7 West Virginia, 72-71, as a runner from Derek Culver rimmed out as time expired. Sam Merrill had 20 for the Aggies, with Jermaine Haley's 12 leading the Mountaineers.
The most notable blowout saw #8 seed Colorado throttle #9 Florida 70-44. Tyler Bey had 17 for the Buffaloes as they looked impressive routing the Gators.
The rest of the West region games were largely without drama, as higher seeds advanced comfortably:
#1 Dayton 80, #16 Boston U 69
#4 Maryland 72, #13 Akron 60
#5 Butler 76, #12 Texas 62
#2 Florida State 76, #15 Northern Kentucky 64
The South Region had the most close games, with only the #1 and #2 seeds winning by more than 10 points.
Among the notable close games were #3 seed Seton Hall needing 2 late free throws from All-American Myles Powell and a missed prayer at the buzzer to outlast #14 seed Eastern Washington 74-73. Powell had 17 for the Pirates, while Mason Peatling scored 16 for the Eagles. Arizona was left wanting, as a last second three by Nico Mannion was off target and the #7 seed Wildcats lost to the #10 seed Red Raiders of Texas Tech 74-72. Mannion had 14, while Texas tech was led by 15 from TJ Holyfield.
#9 seed Oklahoma powered past #8 seed LSU 87-80 in the highest scoring first round game. Brady Manek led the Sooners with 18, while freshman Trendon Watford's 19 were not enough to lead the Tigers to victory.
Other games:
#1 Gonzaga 81, #16 Prairie View A&M 65
#4 Oregon 79, #13 New Mexico St. 69
#5 Michigan 77, #12 Yale 69
#6 BYU 77, #11 Indiana 69
#2 San Diego St. 75, #15 UC Irvine 43
The East region also saw relatively little drama in the first round, with only 2 games decided by less than 9 points.
#11 seed Cincinnati held on 68-64 over the #6 seed Virginia Cavaliers, who had entered the tournament winners of 8 in a row and 11 of 12. Virginia held Jarron Cumberland to just 8 points, but his cousin Jaevin Cumberland stepped up with 14 to lead the Bearcats. #7 seed Illinois staved off a rally from #10 seed USC down the stretch to win 71-69 behind 15 each from Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn. Freshman big Onyeka Okongwu had 14 for the Trojans (12 in the 2nd half) as USC rallied from 11 down at halftime to fall just short.
#9 seed Rutgers showed up big time in their first NCAA appearance since 1991, storming past #8 seed Saint Mary's 88-78. Akwasi Yeboah led 4 Scarley Knights in double figures with 15, while Jordan Ford's 26 was not enough to push the Gaels into the next round.
Other games:
#1 Baylor 76, #16 Winthrop 48
#4 Louisville 74, #13 Vermont 65
#5 Ohio State 80, #12 Stephen F. Austin 64
#3 Michigan State 75, #14 Bradley 58
#2 Creighton 80, #15 Little Rock 64
Second Round: A Shakeup in the South, and a Mixed Bag for the Big Ten
The second round of our simulated tournament looked a lot like the first round, with relatively few upsets (except for the South, which we'll get to shortly). Meanwhile, the Big Ten landed 10 teams in the tourney and went 9-1 in the first round, but ran into more trouble in the second round. When the dust settled, the conference sent only 4 of its 10 teams to the Sweet 16, and all 4 will be facing higher seeded teams next round.
Let's start with the South region. That region had more close games in the first round than any other, and saw 2 of the biggest upsets in the second round.
Most notably, #1 seed Gonzaga was sent packing by #9 seed Oklahoma 84-79. Austin Reaves' 18 points paced the Sooners, who added another frustrating chapter to the Zags' history of NCAA upsets. The #6 seed BYU Cougars outlasted their Mountain West rivals by upending #3 seed Seton Hall 79-76 behind 19 points from Jake Toolson. Myles Powell has 22 for the Pirates in his final college game, but missed a late jumper that would have given the Pirates the lead.
The other South region games saw higher seeds flex their muscle, as #2 seed San Diego State throttled Texas Tech behind 25 points from KJ Feagin, and #4 Oregon bounced #5 seed Michigan with twin 17 point efforts from Peyton Pritchard and Chris Duarte.
In the Midwest region, the headliner was All-American Luka Garza continuing his stellar play by pouring in 29 point to lead #6 Iowa to an upset over #3 Duke. Freshman Vernon Carey led the Blue Devils with 17, but couldn't win the battle of the big men.
#5 seed Auburn's Samir Doughty tallied 19 points as he led the Tigers past the Big Ten champion and #4 seed Wisconsin Badgers 89-75. The Badgers had 4 players score 12 or more points, led by Nate Reuvers 15, but it wasn't enough.
#1 Kansas ended Markus Howard's collegiate career by defeating #9 seed Marquette 76-63. Howard was up the challenge, scoring 24 points in his farewell game, but Devon Dotson's 17 led the favored Jayhawks.
#2 Kentucky got 20 points from breakout sophomore Immanuel Quickley as they bid adieu to the #7 seed Providence Friars 80-73. Alpha Diallo and Maliek White each had 14 for Providence, while Nick Richards chipped in 17 for Kentucky.
The West region saw the higher seeds win all 4 games, although the #2 seed Florida State Seminoles got a scare from the #10 seed Utah State Aggies 74-70. The Seminoles got 18 points from Devin Vassell as they look to make their first Final Four under Leonard Hamilton, while the upstart Aggies were paced by Sam Merril''s 20 for the second game in a row.
#4 Maryland outlasted #5 seed Butler 74-70 as Eric Ayala's 18 led the Terrapins. Butler's Kamar Baldwin put up 19 in a losing effort, closing out his impressive Butler career.
#1 Dayton continued to show that mid-majors can be heavyweights, as they ended #8 seed Colorado's tournament 78-68. The Flyers' star Obi Toppin had 24 to upend the Buffaloes, who were led by D'Shawn Schwartz's 12.
#6 seed Penn State ended the Cinderella story for #14 seed Hofstra, putting the Flying Dutchmen to bed in an 85-71 affair. Lamar Stevens led the Nittany Lions into the Sweet 16 with 19 points, while Tareq Coburn had 17 for Hofstra.
Finally, the East region was the only one to send its top 4 seeds to the Sweet 16, but not without a close call. #2 seed Creighton needed an Ayo Dosunmu turnover in the final seconds to outlast #7 seed Illinois 75-74 and avoid the upset. Dosunmu had 16 points for the Illini, while Creighton was paced by 15 each from Ty-Shon Alexander and Marcus Zegarowski.
#1 seed Baylor had little trouble with #9 Rutgers, advancing 79-64 behind Jared Butler's 19 points. The Bears ended the season on a down note losing 3 of their last 5 games, but have looked the part of a #1 seed so far in the tournament.
#4 Louisville had little trouble with #5 Ohio State, cruising to a 75-61 victory. Jordan Nwora put up 19 points to follow up a 22 point effort in the opening round as he leads the Cardinals to their first Sweet 16 since 2015.
#3 Michigan State continued their march to a second consecutive Final Four, outlasting #11 seed Cincinnati 78-72. Senior guard Cassius Winston scored 17 to prolong his college career for the Spartans, while grad transfer Javien Cumberland paced the Bearcats for the second straight game with 19 points.
The Sweet 16 matchups are as follows:
Midwest:
#1 Kansas vs #5 Auburn
#2 Kentucky vs #6 Iowa
West:
#1 Dayton vs #4 Maryland
#2 Florida State vs #6 Penn State
South:
#9 Oklahoma vs #4 Oregon
#6 BYU vs #2 San Diego State
East:
#1 Baylor vs #4 Louisville
#2 Creighton vs #3 Michigan State
Check back tomorrow night for results of the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight!